Recently, mainland Chinese media have extensively reported on the “mini spring” market in the Hangzhou real estate sector, citing a significant rebound in transaction volume as the primary indicator of market recovery. However, when looking at price trends, inventory pressures, and actual transaction situations, the Hangzhou property market is still in an adjustment phase characterized by “exchanging price for volume.” Behind the surge in transaction data, house prices continue to decline, market differentiation intensifies, and the credibility of this so-called “recovery” is being highly questioned.
The latest report from the “Daily Business News” stated that in March, the Hangzhou real estate market “perfectly fulfilled the mini spring,” with strong demand in both the second-hand and new housing markets, both seeing a sharp year-on-year increase in transaction volume of over 100%.
Statistics from the BEKE Research Institute in Hangzhou revealed that in March of this year, a total of 9,356 second-hand houses were sold in the urban area of Hangzhou, a substantial 178% increase from February.
“The month of March has traditionally been a peak season for second-hand house transactions, mainly because the pent-up demand from January and February was released. However, this year, 62% of customers in Hangzhou have completed their down payments within 30 days, significantly higher than the second half of last year. Customers are making faster decisions, and the inherent demand for genuine self-occupancy is gradually becoming evident,” said Shang Guanjian, Director of the BEKE Research Institute in Hangzhou.
In terms of new housing, data from the BEKE Research Institute showed that in March, a total of 4,520 units were sold in the urban area of Hangzhou, a 141% increase from February, with monthly transaction volume exceeding the sum of January and February.
While the data shows a significant increase in transaction volume, market analysts point out that this growth is largely influenced by a low base figure.
A blogger who claims to have observed the property market for 30 years, known as “Hangzhou House Uncle,” recently wrote that in March, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the urban area of Hangzhou surged by 178% compared to February. While this increase appears remarkable, upon closer examination, it is attributed to base figures. In February, due to the Chinese New Year, only 3,370 units were sold, marking a new low in two years. Comparing the data from March to the same period last year actually shows a decline of 25%.
The blogger shared two anecdotes. One friend of his recently sold a house in Gouzhuang after it had been listed for almost a year. The selling price was 5% lower than the listing price. The homeowner said, “I’ve come to terms with it; it’s good to sell now.”
The blogger’s other friend owned a 40-square-meter rundown property in the city center, which had been on the market for two years. Last year, someone made an offer that he considered too low. By March this year, the buyer offered the exact same price as last year, and this time, he didn’t hesitate to sell. “Last year, I thought I could wait, but this year, I decided to let go.”
The blogger believes that these two stories of his friends are likely a microcosm of the Hangzhou second-hand housing market in March. The current resurgence in second-hand properties primarily stems from essential buying and a slight release of demand in school district properties. “Why are essential buyers moving now? Because the prices are right. In March, the average price of second-hand residential properties in Hangzhou was 27,320 yuan per square meter, a 5.6% drop from February and nearly a 16% drop from March of last year. The proportion of discounted properties has always been over 90%.”
A report titled “Between Two Mini Springs, Someone Lost Two Million in Hangzhou” published by Ifeng News in early April has since been taken down.
The data indicates that the average price of second-hand residential properties in Hangzhou in March was 27,320 yuan per square meter, a 5.6% decrease from February and nearly a 16% decrease from March of the previous year. Meanwhile, the proportion of discounted properties has consistently remained above 90%.
Clarified as an opinion leader in Zhejiang real estate, prominent blogger “CricBigDataHZ” highlighted that both year-on-year and month-on-month transaction prices are showing a downward trend, indicating that the market is still primarily driven by the “exchanging price for volume” mode of transactions.
On the supply side, as of March this year, the inventory of new residential properties in Hangzhou reached 25,328 units, a 6% year-on-year increase, implying a noticeable increase in supply with the inventory growth rate shifting from negative to positive.
In conclusion, the “recovery” in the Hangzhou property market is more reflected in transaction volume rather than in price or the overall restoration of market confidence. The substantial year-on-year decline, significant regional and project differentiation, and relatively low overall turnover rate suggest that this current rebound is closer to a structural rise under inventory pressure rather than a fundamental shift in market trends.
“BicBigDataHZ” pointed out that the turnover period has increased from 5.3 months in April 2025 to 8.8 months, representing a 66% increase in a year. Therefore, the foundation of the “recovery” in the Hangzhou property market is not stable, as the significant year-on-year decline, extreme regional and project differentiation, and relatively low overall turnover rate indicate that this is not an overall market transformation signal but rather a structural rebound under inventory pressure.
“Chao News” also noted that while property market temperatures in all areas of the city are on the rise, this “mini spring” phenomenon reveals significant structural differentiation, with properties at various price points entering a phase of intense competition.