On April 1st, US President Trump gave an exclusive interview to the British newspaper “The Telegraph”, expressing that he is “seriously considering” a complete US withdrawal from NATO. The reason behind this consideration is that several NATO countries have shown reluctance to participate in his military actions against Iran and are unwilling to assist in opening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump bluntly stated that NATO has become a “paper tiger.”
Director of the Institute of National Defense Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, Su Ziyun, analyzed that despite Trump’s bold statements, it is unlikely for the US to break ties with NATO in the short term. Su Ziyun pointed out that even when disputes arise within democratic alliances, there is often room for reconciliation. Looking at Trump’s overall strategy, his second term is accelerating efforts to counter the threats posed by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, with unexpected consequences for China becoming the “accelerator” of Iran’s regime crisis.
To understand Trump’s remarks, Su Ziyun believes it is necessary to go back to his consistent strategic thinking. During an interview with NTD Television on April 2nd, Su Ziyun emphasized that in Trump’s first term, he articulated a fundamental idea that the world cannot allow China and Russia to form a bullying alliance. He highlighted the importance of distinguishing between China as a country and the Chinese Communist regime as the real challenge to democratic values.
In Trump’s second term, Su Ziyun observed a sense of historical mission driving many of his actions, making it seem like he is pushing forward aggressively in various regions, from the upheavals in Syria to the situation in Venezuela, which is considered a key ally of China. Su Ziyun pointed out that the strategic direction of Trump’s administration is becoming clearer with each development.
Since the Obama era, the Iran nuclear issue has been a focal point of US policy in the Middle East. While the Obama administration pursued dialogue to address the issue, Trump grew impatient with Iran’s continued advancements in nuclear capabilities. Trump’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year signaled his shift away from relying solely on negotiations to address the issue, aiming to instigate changes within Iran’s regime.
Regarding Trump’s discontent with NATO, Su Ziyun explained that Trump’s frustration stems from NATO countries denying the US access to bases and control over airspace in France and Italy, essential for military operations. If the US is bearing the brunt of military pressure in the Middle East while allies are unwilling to provide basic support, Trump questions the purpose of US involvement in NATO.
Su Ziyun highlighted the imbalance in defense spending within NATO, where the US contributes nearly 70% of the budget, leading Trump to view this as unfair. He drew parallels to Trump’s demands for Japan and South Korea to increase their defense spending as countries benefiting from US trade while relying on US security protection. Trump seeks fair and equitable burden-sharing among allies.
Contrary to portraying Trump as solely driven by financial considerations, Su Ziyun likened Trump to a businessman who values equitable agreements. He emphasized that for Trump, fairness and equitable distribution of rights and obligations are fundamental for successful partnerships, a perspective essential in understanding international relations.
As tensions between the US and NATO escalate, Su Ziyun believes these clashes resemble short-term conflicts rather than an imminent rupture. He underscored that alliances among democratic countries naturally involve disagreements over burden-sharing, military involvement, and benefits distribution, but such disputes often resolve quickly, showcasing the resilience of democratic nations.
Su Ziyun noted the upcoming visit of NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg to Washington and the UK’s proposal to aid in ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating efforts to uphold NATO’s core principle of “One for all, all for one.” As European countries heavily rely on energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz, sharing this security responsibility solely with the US Navy is untenable.
In a broader geopolitical context, Su Ziyun highlighted China’s unexpected role as an “accelerator” of Iran’s regime crisis. Since Xi Jinping came to power, China has expanded its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative into the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America, transitioning from a land power to a sea power strategy to develop a blue-water navy and establish global strategic pathways. In this framework, Taiwan holds a critical strategic position.
Su Ziyun pointed out that as the US moved towards energy independence during the Obama era, reducing direct reliance on the Middle East, Beijing seized the power vacuum in the region, deepening ties with Russia, Iran, and other actors. In Beijing’s regional strategy, Iran plays a crucial role as a significant oil supplier, with China importing around 13% of its oil from Iran at discounted prices, impacting the Chinese economy significantly. Disruption of this oil supply from Iran would have spill-over effects on the Chinese economy.