Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly weakened, with several US Navy ships heading to the Middle East and President Trump demonstrating a tougher stance towards Iran. However, Iranian experts from a US think tank caution against underestimating the complexity of the situation in Iran.
The USS Tripoli, a Wasp-class amphibious assault ship and flagship of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (31st MEU), arrived in the US Central Command’s area of responsibility on March 27th. The ship carries around 3,500 sailors and Marines, along with transport planes, attack jets, and amphibious assault and tactical equipment onboard.
In addition to the USS Tripoli, the US Navy’s USS Boxer, along with two other vessels, and another Marine Expeditionary Unit have been ordered to the Middle East region.
As the conflict escalates, President Trump has displayed a tougher attitude towards Iran. On April 1st, Trump posted on Truth Social, saying, “Iran’s new regime president, far less radical than his predecessors and more thoughtful, has just asked the US for a ceasefire! We will consider a ceasefire when the Strait of Hormuz is flowing freely. Until then, we will bomb Iran to smithereens or, in their words, send them back to the Stone Age!!!”
Since US and Israel jointly initiated military actions against Iran on February 28th, Iran’s air defense systems have been severely weakened, with missile launch capabilities declining by nearly 90%, and large naval vessels left severely damaged.
Claims of a slowdown in Iranian attacks have been supported by independent data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a nonprofit organization based in the US that specializes in tracking conflict events worldwide.
According to ACLED data, on March 31st, Iran launched 28 attacks, with 19 coming from the air and 9 from the ground or sea, targeting nine countries and hitting 23 objectives. The average daily attack frequency increased by 3% compared to the previous week.
In the three and a half weeks since March 6th, ACLED data shows that Iran has not exceeded 50 attacks in a single day. ACLED’s statistical methods indicate that a “single attack” may include multiple strikes at the same location on the same day.
From February 28th to March 31st, the US and Israel conducted 2,468 attacks on Iran, while Iran launched 1,266 attacks, roughly half the number of attacks received.
However, Farzin Nadimi, an Iran missile expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), cautioned in a recent interview with the Associated Press, stating, “A significant portion of Iran’s missiles, at least half of its missile stockpile, is stored in highly reinforced facilities that are difficult for airborne assets to reach. It appears that Americans and Israelis have underestimated the complexity of the situation.”
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated on March 29th that Iranian forces are “waiting for US soldiers” and will unleash firepower on any US troops attempting to enter Iranian territory. President Trump named him on March 30th as one of the Iranian officials negotiating with the US to end the war.
According to an analysis by the Missile Threat project under the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on March 3rd, Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, including thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, with some missiles capable of reaching Israel and Eastern Europe.
“In the past decade, Iran has invested heavily in enhancing the precision and lethality of these weapons. These developments have turned Iran’s missile forces into a potent tool for power projection and a real threat to the US and its military forces in the region.”
The Missile Threat website, operated by CSIS’s Missile Defense Project, provides authoritative and up-to-date open-source information and analysis on global ballistic and cruise missiles and their defense systems.