Russia’s two major export terminals, Primorsk and Ust-Luga, located in the Baltic Sea, were targeted in a large-scale drone attack by Ukraine on Wednesday (March 25th). This attack comes as the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, coinciding with the outbreak of a conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, shifting global diplomatic focus and military resources significantly. Experts warn that as the fields dry up, Russia has launched a powerful spring offensive in hopes of seizing control of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
According to reports by Reuters, the assault on the oil facilities marks one of the largest operations in the four-year Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the two ports being hit a few days ago and attempting to resume operations on Monday, only to be paralyzed again by fires.
Along the coast of the Gulf of Finland, thick smoke rising from the ports is still visible. Finnish Coast Guard official Jukka-Pekka Lumilahti noted the intense fires at the scene, generating a substantial amount of smoke, but no oil spills have been reported.
Finnish parliament member and chairman of the National Defense Committee, Heikki Autto, remarked witnessing the smoke columns upon landing at Helsinki Airport, expressing shock at the proximity of hostile actions despite Finland’s unchanged security situation.
Additionally, some drones landed in neighboring Latvia and Estonia, with one striking a power plant in Estonia but thankfully causing no damage. Ukraine’s Security Service confirmed that their drones successfully hit their targets, aiming to disrupt Russia’s oil and petroleum storage facilities to reduce Russia’s foreign exchange income and weaken its war economy.
Primorsk port handles daily oil exports of up to 1 million barrels, serving as a major hub for Russian Urals crude and high-quality diesel. Sources informed Reuters that Ust-Luga exported 32.9 million metric tons of oil products last year, while Primorsk exported 16.8 million metric tons.
Recently, Russia’s economy has benefited from a new measure by the US government. To alleviate the global supply shortage resulting from the Middle East conflict, the US has provided temporary sanctions waivers for stranded Russian oil at sea, allowing Russia to profit billions of dollars from this move.
Ukrainian President Zelensky deemed the US decision as “incorrect,” fearing it would further support Russia’s military actions. With the Iran conflict taking global center stage, US defense resources and diplomatic efforts are shifting toward the Middle East. The deployment of Patriot air defense missiles previously stationed in Europe has been shifted to the Middle East, leading Zelensky to warn of Ukraine facing shortages in air defense systems.
He noted that the US can produce only about 60 to 65 missiles monthly, and the first day of the Middle East conflict saw 803 missiles expended. Retired US Navy Rear Admiral and Deputy Director of the Syracuse University Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism, Robert Murrett, observed that the White House’s focus on handling Iran affairs currently complicates efforts to address the thorny territorial and security negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
On the ground, Russia is capitalizing on improved weather conditions to launch a spring offensive, exerting pressure on the industrial cities in eastern Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt” spanning 50 kilometers along Donetsk’s western region and serving as a core defense network in guarding the remaining territories of Donbass, as per the European Policy Analysis Center expert Elina Beketova.
Persistent Russian pressures in both the battlefield and airspace surrounding the region put critical strain on the Donbass situation in recent weeks, with the Ukrainian military claiming they can hold their ground. Notably, Russia is experimenting with new tactics in this offensive, deploying mechanized infantry and armored units.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi revealed that fierce battles are underway along the approximately 1,250-kilometer front in eastern and southern Ukraine. To address potential reductions in external aid, Ukraine is offering tested drone technologies to Gulf countries in exchange for air defense resources, proposing to provide its developed drone interceptors to the US.
However, the European Union’s planned €90 billion (approx. $104 billion) loan to support Ukraine’s war-torn armed forces and battered economy is currently delayed due to opposition from Hungary.