With two months left until the Los Angeles mayoral primary on June 2nd, the latest poll shows that incumbent mayor Karen Bass is temporarily ahead among the 14 candidates. However, nearly sixty percent of voters have an unfavorable view of her, putting her in a disadvantageous position in the election.
A recent online survey conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Government and the Los Angeles Times from March 9th to 15th revealed that Bass has a support rate of 25%. Following her are Los Angeles City Council member Nithya Raman, conservative reality TV star Spencer Pratt, tech entrepreneur Adam Miller, and Rae Huang, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America Los Angeles chapter and a descendant of Taiwanese immigrants, with support rates of 17%, 14%, 6%, and 4% respectively. Additionally, 25% of voters remain undecided.
The favorability ratings of the top five candidates – Bass, Raman, Pratt, Huang, and Miller – are 31%, 26%, 17%, 16%, and 10% respectively. Of particular concern is the “unfavorable” ratings, where the rate of voters holding unfavorable views of the top five candidates are 56%, 23%, 28%, 17%, and 12%, with Bass leading by a significant margin.
According to the poll, voters prioritize five main issues for the next mayor to address: building more affordable housing, repairing city infrastructure such as roads, sidewalks, and streetlights, relocating homeless individuals indoors, reducing waste, fraud, and political corruption, and lowering crime rates to ensure public safety.
Voters who prioritize housing, infrastructure, and homeless relocation tend to support Bass (26%, 28%, and 31%) and Raman (28%, 18%, and 19%). Voters who prioritize reducing waste and lowering crime rates lean towards supporting Pratt (33% and 27%).
Bass only leads in city infrastructure and homeless relocation, with lower support rates than other candidates on the remaining three major issues.
Combating “rampant crime” and addressing the homeless crisis are central to Pratt’s platform. However, his support rates on affordable housing and homeless relocation are only at 8% and 6%.
Regardless of the issues, a significant portion of voters have yet to decide on their preferred candidate.
Dan Schnur, a political communications lecturer at the University of Southern California and the University of California, Berkeley, told ABC7 that the poll results are very disheartening for Bass, almost “disastrous.” He believes that Bass’ current lead is due to the lack of name recognition among her opponents. Facing a group of relatively unknown candidates, Bass encountering many challenges is a “very bad sign” for her.
Last year’s devastating wildfire in the city, the Palisades Fire, resulted in 12 fatalities and over 6,000 homes destroyed. Bass faced intense criticism for cutting the fire department budget and visiting Africa during the wildfire. At the time, reservoirs were emptied for maintenance, leaving firefighters unable to access water as they watched the blaze rage on.
Notably, Pratt, who ranks third in the poll, filed a lawsuit last year against the city of Los Angeles and the state government, alleging insufficient firefighting infrastructure. Pratt and his parents’ home were both lost in the Palisades Fire, prompting him to run for office.
Despite the challenges, public safety issues may potentially earn Bass some votes. The survey shows that 39% of residents believe the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) needs to expand, while 29% and 19% advocate maintaining the current size or downsizing the force, respectively. Bass has called for hiring more officers, while Raman believes the current roster of around 8,700 officers is sufficient.
The mayoral term in Los Angeles is four years long. In the past two decades, only in the 2005 election did the incumbent mayor fail to secure re-election. If no candidate receives over half the votes in this election, the top two vote-getters will compete again in the November election for victory.