American CFOs warn that artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to layoffs for some employees, especially those engaged in daily clerical and administrative work. However, high-skilled professionals such as architects and engineers who can effectively leverage the advantages of AI are more likely to retain their jobs.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, a recent study surveying 750 CFOs across the United States found that AI had almost no impact on employment last year. Most CFOs believe that AI will only result in a modest reduction in job positions for companies this year.
John Graham, an economist at Duke University and one of the report’s authors, stated that jobs requiring higher education and more training may eventually be affected by AI, but likely not this year. Graham pointed out that CFOs are responsible for overseeing company resource deployment, enabling them to have a deeper understanding of the company’s internal operations.
The survey shows that overall, CFOs expect AI to lead to a 0.4% reduction in workforce this year.
CFOs from various industries including finance, technology, manufacturing, and professional services participated in the quarterly survey. Aside from standard outlook questions, this survey raised a series of inquiries regarding artificial intelligence.
CFOs believe that AI’s potential for job cuts lies in doubling the efficiency of office and administrative support fields (accounting, clerical work, and customer service). For other higher-level positions, CFOs mostly believe AI will enhance efficiency rather than replace jobs, especially in roles requiring advanced education.
The report suggests a correlation with the concept of “skill-biased technological change,” where new technologies tend to eliminate routine jobs while complementing high-skilled work.
In the 1980s, personal computers entered offices, enabling educated employees like financial analysts, technicians, and consultants to work more efficiently. However, positions involving more routine mental labor such as typists and back-office accountants, previously considered reliable paths to the middle class, gradually got phased out. Meanwhile, more individuals without college degrees moved into lower-paying positions not yet replaced by computers, such as leisure and hospitality services.
Experts have been debating whether AI will ultimately lead to skill bias, disproportionately harming highly educated individuals, or universally enhance labor productivity. However, what is unsettling for the average person is that those displaced by AI may not necessarily find new jobs created by AI.
Another author of the report, Salomé Baslandze, an economist at the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, believes that AI will eventually create new job categories. She also warns that CFOs’ belief that AI will reduce many job positions is actually a “stepping stone” for people to enter the middle class, which is particularly disadvantageous for young people seeking their first jobs.
Graham cautions that while studies indicate AI will have a slight impact on overall employment, the survey only covers established mature companies, not startups which embrace new technologies and explore how to utilize them for job growth. Just like with personal computers in the past, these new technologies not only change the operations of existing companies but also spawn entirely new industries.
The survey also points out this trend. Large companies with over 500 employees mostly plan to reduce regular staff while maintaining the same number of technical staff. Small businesses, on the other hand, aim to keep regular staff employment stable while increasing technical staff. This suggests that slower-growing, efficiency-focused large companies are more motivated to use AI to reduce costs, while small businesses see expansion opportunities in it.