“Three Gorges Group Experts Investigated, Chinese Media: How Much Longer Can Three Gorges Dam Hold?”

On March 23, 2026, Chen Wenfu, a first-level consultant of the Three Gorges Construction Group, was investigated. Chen Wenfu was responsible for the temperature control work of the Three Gorges Dam and had successively supervised the construction of the Xiluodu Hydropower Station and the Baihetan Hydropower Station dams.

At the same time as Chen Wenfu’s investigation, mainland Chinese media raised questions about how long the Three Gorges Dam could continue to operate safely. There were also rare discussions about dismantling the Three Gorges Dam and constructing new dams.

China Three Gorges Construction (Group) Co., Ltd. was established on November 30, 1992, as a wholly state-owned enterprise under the control of China Three Gorges Corporation. According to its official website, the company mainly engages in water conservancy engineering construction management, construction engineering construction, and has undertaken the construction management tasks of world giant hydropower projects such as Three Gorges, Baihetan, Xiluodu, and Xiangjiaba.

Public records show that Chen Wenfu, born in December 1966, is a senior engineer who has been engaged in the construction of large-scale hydropower projects for a long time. He led the construction of the Phase II plant of the Three Gorges Project and the temperature control of the Phase III project dam, and served as the head of the Xiluodu Hydropower Station dam project team and the deputy director and chief engineer of the Baihetan project construction department.

In August 2024, the Three Gorges Group’s official website reported that Chen Wenfu has played a key role in the construction of three world-class hydropower projects, including the Three Gorges, Xiluodu, and Baihetan projects. Chen Wenfu personally experienced the entire process of the construction of the Three Gorges Project, from planning to the construction of the main project, and was in charge of the dam temperature control work in the third phase.

The article stated that Chen Wenfu was the “architect” of the Xiluodu Dam construction management, leading to the completion of a 300m-level high-strength concrete arch dam without cracks. The project received the “FIDIC Engineering Project Outstanding Award,” known as the industry’s “Nobel Prize.” Chen Wenfu was the leader in the construction quality management of the Baihetan Hydropower Station, acting as the “chief designer” and executor of the dam construction.

The Three Gorges Project is located on the main stream of the Yangtze River from Chongqing to Yichang, Hubei Province. It started construction in December 1994 and was completed in May 2006.

The Xiluodu Hydropower Station is located at the junction of Leibo County in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture in Sichuan Province and Yongshan County in Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province. The construction of the main dam started in April 2007 and was fully completed in 2015.

The Baihetan Hydropower Station is located at the junction of Ningnan County in Sichuan Province and Qiaojia County in Yunnan Province. It started construction in 2010, the main project construction began in 2017, and all units were put into operation in December 2022.

According to official reports from the Chinese Communist Party, the Three Gorges Project is the world’s largest hydropower station. The Baihetan Hydropower Station is China’s third mega hydropower station after the Three Gorges and Xiluodu Hydropower Stations, ranking as the second largest hydropower station in the world by installed capacity, following the Three Gorges. Currently, the Xiluodu Hydropower Station is the third largest in China and the fourth largest in the world.

On the day Chen Wenfu was investigated, Baidu’s content creation platform, Baijiahao, published an article titled “The History of Operation” questioning the safety and future of the Three Gorges Dam after nearly 30 years of service. The article discussed the potential consequences of dismantling the dam and the scientific assessment of its future fate.

The article raised concerns about the controversies surrounding the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, including its impact on the ecological environment, such as the survival of rare fish species like the Yangtze sturgeon and Chinese sturgeon. Safety hazards of the dam, such as earthquakes and mudslides, and the extensive resettlement required during construction affecting millions of residents’ lives were also highlighted as ongoing challenges.

The Three Gorges Dam is facing new challenges as extreme weather events increase due to climate change. The hydrological conditions in the Yangtze River basin are changing, with periods of drought and heavy rainfall. Balancing sediment control, ecological protection, and equipment maintenance are all long-term tasks for the operation of the dam.

The article pointed out that sediment accumulation has become an unavoidable issue for the Three Gorges Dam. Accumulated sediment in the reservoir exceeds 1.8 billion tonnes, leading to a gradual decline in reservoir functionality. Sediment can erode the dam’s spillway and power generation equipment, increase maintenance costs, reduce storage capacity, and flood control capabilities, potentially leading to downstream flooding disasters. Sediment accumulation also alters water temperature, affecting aquatic life reproduction and poses water quality risks due to microbial growth.

The article questioned how long the concrete submerged in water at the Three Gorges Dam could endure, given that ordinary concrete in China has a lifespan of about 50 years, which is shortened in underwater environments. With the Three Gorges Dam construction starting in 1994, nearly 30 years have passed – raising concerns about its potential lifespan.

Since the beginning of the Three Gorges Project, various challenges have emerged. In July 2019, rumors of deformation of the Three Gorges Dam became a public concern. The assessment of the project by the Chinese authorities evolved from claiming it could withstand a “once in a thousand years flood” in 2003, to a “once in a thousand years flood” defense in 2007, and finally warning not to rely entirely on the Three Gorges Dam in 2010.

At the inception of the proposed construction of the Three Gorges Dam, renowned hydraulic engineering expert and Tsinghua University professor, Huang Wanli, wrote letters six times to then Chinese Communist Party leader Jiang Zemin and Premier Li Peng expressing concerns about the risks of the Three Gorges Project in terms of geology, environment, ecology, and military implications. Huang Wanli warned about circumstances like pebble accumulation after the reservoir was filled, floods in Chongqing and Sichuan, the massive cost of the project, and the inevitable need to demolish the tall dam if built. However, Jiang Zemin, who came to power in 1989 following the “Tiananmen Square” crackdown, rushed to build an alliance with then Premier Li Peng to solidify his leadership position and personally pushed for the approval of the Three Gorges Project at the National People’s Congress.

On February 27, 2026, the mainland portal website Sohu.com published an article by the author Du Yutong titled “How Difficult Was It to Build the Three Gorges Dam? It Took 36 Years to Complete, How Long Can It Last?” The article elaborated on the classification of the Three Gorges Dam as a first-class impounding structure, with a designed lifespan of around 150 years. Following this standard, and considering its completion in 2006, the Three Gorges Dam’s retirement period should be around 2156. However, sudden changes in the hydrological conditions of the Yangtze River could shorten its practical lifespan even within the 150-year design limit. In such a scenario, dismantling the Three Gorges Dam becomes inevitable, and the potential consequences of this action could be severe, including the release of accumulated water and sediment downstream leading to catastrophic disasters or even altering the course of the Yangtze River. Moreover, the removal of the dam would directly impact power generation and the electricity supply.

The article highlighted that just like the replacement of the Fengman Dam on the Songhua River, when a dam reaches its capacity, the country constructs new dams to replace it. After reaching its maximum usage limit, plans for new dams are put in place, and once the new dam is completed, the old one is quickly dismantled. Therefore, if the Three Gorges Dam reaches its limit in the future, the nation will likely follow planned procedures to construct a new dam to take its place.

The Fengman Dam in Jilin was built in 1937 and by 1988, faced damage on its upstream and downstream faces with considerable erosion. After the construction of a new dam downstream, the Fengman Dam was dismantled in 2019.

From October 29 to December 30, 2013, the ninth inspection team of the Chinese Communist Party conducted an inspection of the Three Gorges Group. On February 17, 2014, the inspection team pointed out a slew of issues to the leadership of the Three Gorges Group, including leadership involvement in project construction, opaque decision-making in the bidding process, serious subcontracting of construction projects among other irregularities.

On February 27, 2014, the mainland media outlet “Time Weekly” interviewed several informed individuals who were involved in the bidding process of the Three Gorges Project, revealing shocking corruption scandals during the bidding process of the Three Gorges Group. The article mentioned that the projects annually put out for bidding by the Three Gorges Group totaled at least over 10 billion Yuan. Before 2014, the majority of these projects were not regularly bid out, with operations referred to as “open-box operations.”

On March 24, 2014, the chairman of the Three Gorges Group, Cao Guangjing, and the general manager, Chen Fei, were both dismissed.

On June 28, 2015, the Chinese Audit Administration released the 2013 financial audit report of the Three Gorges Group, revealing rampant corruption and disarray within the organization. The findings included irregularities in the project bidding process, involving 434 contracts worth 12.267 billion Yuan from 2010 to March 2014, understated profits over four years amounting to 991 million Yuan, improper practices in construction and commercial activities leading to significant economic losses, among others.

In February 2022, the former chairman of the Three Gorges Group, Cao Guangjing, was arrested while serving as the Deputy Governor of Hubei Province and was sentenced to life imprisonment in May 2024. Cao Guangjing was accused of illegally accepting more than 216 million Yuan from 2004 to 2022 through his roles as Vice General Manager of the China Three Gorges Corporation and Chairman of the Three Gorges Group, among others.