In January 2026, the approval rate for asylum cases in the United States immigration courts hit a record low, with only about 2% of cases ultimately granted asylum.
According to data compiled by the non-profit organization Mobile Pathways’ Asylum Navigator dashboard, the latest statistics released in January 2026 revealed that the approval rate for asylum cases in the U.S. immigration courts for that month was approximately 2%. This means that the vast majority of asylum cases that have been concluded did not receive approval. However, among all nationalities, Chinese applicants had a significantly higher approval rate compared to the average.
Data indicates that the approval rate for Chinese applicants is around 16%, which is about 8 times higher than the overall U.S. average approval rate of 2%.
Statistics from Mobile Pathways show that the approval rate for Chinese applicants seeking asylum has been steadily declining over the past two years. In 2024, the approval rate for Chinese asylum cases was around 61%. By 2025, this percentage dropped to 33%, a decrease of 28 percentage points. By early 2026, the approval rate further decreased to approximately 16%, halving from 2025. In other words, within just two years, the approval rate for Chinese asylum applicants decreased from over 60% to less than 20%.
This trend is closely related to the overall tightening of the U.S. asylum policy. A research report released in December 2025 by the Center for Immigration Studies pointed out that the overall asylum approval rate in U.S. immigration courts decreased from 51% to 19% between February 2024 and August 2025. The study suggests that the U.S. government is strengthening enforcement and scrutiny to narrow the scope of asylum application.
Several immigration lawyers have highlighted that in the current immigration enforcement environment, asylum applications are not only subject to stricter scrutiny but also face significantly longer approval processing times. Immigration officials are placing greater emphasis on whether applicants provide sufficient evidence, including any criminal records, visa fraud, or inconsistencies in statements, all of which could lead to case denials. At the same time, immigration enforcement in the U.S. has noticeably intensified.
Since 2025, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have ramped up enforcement actions in several major cities, leading to some applicants being detained on the spot when attending immigration court hearings. Such instances have occurred in cities like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Some lawyers suggest that this enforcement environment has led to instances where applicants are afraid to appear in court due to fears of detention, resulting in cases being labeled as “abandoned.”
Analyzing the time trends, there was a significant turning point in Chinese asylum cases in November 2025, with a sudden drop of over 30% in the number of rulings. Whether approved, denied, or abandoned cases, the numbers decreased simultaneously, creating a clear statistical “discontinuity.”
Analysts believe that this change is more likely related to the scheduling of immigration court cases, administrative processing pace changes, and case postponements, rather than solely reflecting sudden policy shifts.
Regionally, there are significant disparities in asylum cases for Chinese applicants among different immigrant courts. In the New York immigration court, the approval rate for Chinese applicants is notably higher than the national average.
Statistical data from late 2025 to early 2026 shows approximately a 27% approval rate, a 38% denial rate, and a 20% abandonment rate in New York. If only considering cases with definitive rulings (i.e., approvals and denials), the actual approval rate for Chinese applicants in the New York immigration court is around 42%, significantly higher than the national average.
New York has long been one of the areas with a high concentration of Chinese asylum applications, thus presenting relatively higher numbers and proportions of related cases.
In contrast, the structure of Chinese applicant cases in California’s immigration courts differs. From late 2025 to early 2026, in major California immigration courts (including Los Angeles and Orange County Santa Ana), the abandonment rate reached about 57%, the approval rate was around 15%, and the denial rate stood at approximately 23%.
If solely considering approval and denial cases, California’s actual approval rate is around 39%, similar to New York. However, due to the significantly higher rate of abandonment cases, California’s overall approval rate is notably reduced. Some immigration lawyers attribute this situation to factors like applicants failing to appear on time, case postponements, or voluntary withdrawal of applications.
Overall, the U.S. asylum system has been undergoing significant changes in recent years. On one hand, immigration enforcement has intensified, with the government encouraging voluntary departures of illegal immigrants and expanding deportation efforts. Data from the Department of Homeland Security shows that by December 2025, over 605,000 illegal immigrants have been deported, with around 1.9 million choosing voluntary departure.
On the other hand, the review standards for asylum applications have become more stringent. If the I-589 form is incomplete, the case will be procedurally dismissed. Additionally, applicants are required to provide more specific evidence supporting their asylum claims.
In this evolving landscape, decreasing approval rates for asylum, prolonged case processing times, and widening disparities in court rulings across different regions are emerging as significant features of the current U.S. asylum system.