According to the latest official data from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the urban survey unemployment rate in January and February this year rose to 5.3%, higher than the market’s expectation of 5.1%. However, some analysts have long believed that CCP’s statistical data is not truthful, and the actual unemployment rate is even higher.
On March 16, data released by the CCP National Bureau of Statistics showed that the average urban survey unemployment rate in China for January and February was 5.3%, unchanged from the same period last year.
In February, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month. The unemployment rate for local registered labor force was 5.4%; for migrant registered labor force, it was 5.0%, with the unemployment rate for migrant agricultural registered labor force (migrant workers) at 5.2%. The urban survey unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1%.
As CCP’s official data often conceals unfavorable situations, the actual data may not reflect the true situation.
Regarding the official release of the unemployment rate data, Xu Zhen, a senior figure in China’s capital market, once told Dajiyuan that apart from focusing on labor force data, attention should also be paid to non-labor force data and composition. Xu said, “Because in CCP’s calculation of the unemployment rate, through manipulation, it is likely that portions of the unemployed population may be classified as non-labor force.”
He gave examples such as “a large number of ‘lying flat’ individuals who give up job seeking, ‘hidden unemployment’ individuals financially supported by their families, and ‘flexible employment’ individuals with zero income.”
Commentator Xiao Yi pointed out in an article that a group close to 300 million people (rural migrant workers) are systematically underestimated or omitted. He mentioned that a large number of migrant workers are mobile and tend to return to rural areas when unemployed, which does not meet the official criteria for unemployment and thus goes uncounted. This results in the urban survey unemployment rate appearing stable, while in reality, a significant portion of hidden unemployment has shifted to rural areas.
Xiao Yi also noted that the CCP sets the employment criteria very low, masking the true state of the job market and exacerbating issues of hidden unemployment (such as flexible employment).
In China, odd job workers, part-timers, online ride-hailing drivers, platform food delivery staff, and takeout delivery riders are all considered employed. In the United States, working at least 15 hours a week is considered employed, while in France, it is 20 hours.