The General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China recently released the foreign trade data for the first two months of this year. Although the export growth rate achieved double-digit growth compared to the same period last year, the actual export amount was slightly lower than the fourth quarter of last year. Analysts believe that China’s export growth rate is artificially inflated and unsustainable.
Experts generally believe that China’s export-oriented economy poses hidden risks and is unsustainable, causing significant harm to its trade partners. Moreover, Chinese citizens have not seen significant improvements in income, employment, and social security.
On Tuesday, March 10, the General Administration of Customs of China announced the foreign trade data for January and February 2026. In U.S. dollars, the total value of China’s imports and exports in the first two months reached $1,099.54 billion, representing a 21.0% year-on-year increase. Among them, exports amounted to $656.58 billion, up 21.8% year-on-year, while imports were $442.96 billion, up 19.8% year-on-year.
However, due to high tariffs between the U.S. and China, exports to the U.S. decreased by 11.0% year-on-year, totaling $67.24 billion.
Chinese expert Wang He pointed out that to showcase a positive foreign trade environment, the Chinese government selectively reports economic data, only focusing on year-on-year comparisons while omitting month-to-month comparisons, creating a misleading perception of China’s trade strength.
Regarding the high growth in China’s foreign trade at the beginning of this year, experts attribute it to three main reasons: a low base comparison from the previous year, delayed Chinese New Year holiday, and fluctuations in U.S. tariffs. In reality, the export values were slightly lower than the average of the fourth quarter of last year.
Experts from the University of South Carolina Aiken and economist David Huang highlighted that the surge in exports can be attributed to the “export rush” effect at the end of 2024, causing a lower base comparison in 2025. The anticipation of tariff increases led to pre-ordering by U.S. importers and Chinese suppliers.
Yang Chang, a chief expert at the Institute of Public Policy and Governance at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, analyzed that the total export amount in the first two months of this year was approximately $656.57 billion, slightly lower than the average of $330.99 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating relatively stable export figures.
Other factors influencing exports were U.S. tariffs and the Chinese New Year holiday. It was noted that the timing of the Chinese New Year in January affected exports, while the anticipation of tariff adjustments in February boosted export activities.
In addition, Huang noted that amidst sluggish domestic demand and infrastructure in China, the government’s emphasis on stimulating exports became a significant factor.
However, China’s export-oriented economy has not benefitted its citizens as expected, unlike similar countries such as Japan.
Huang emphasized that an export-oriented economy is not the issue for China; countries like Australia, the Middle East, Canada, and Japan have successfully relied on exports. The critical concern is that China’s economic growth has not translated into increased income or improved social security for its citizens.
He summarized that while China’s exports saw a substantial increase in the first two months of the year, it does not necessarily indicate a robust economic recovery. The key lies in how the government allocates resources to benefit the general population in terms of welfare programs, tax reductions, efficiency in management, combating corruption, and minimizing misuse of resources.
It was highlighted that China’s export-oriented economy harbors risks, with the over-reliance on exports making it vulnerable to global economic downturns. Wang He emphasized that as the world’s largest exporter, China’s economic model inflicts significant harm on global trade dynamics.
In February, China’s trade surplus for the first two months of the year reached $213.62 billion, triggering resistance from trade partners. Economists pointed out that the robust growth in exports at the beginning of the year might amplify concerns over China’s widening trade imbalance among major trade partners.
It was also mentioned that if the U.S.-Iran conflict prolongs, it could severely impact China’s economy due to disruptions in the energy supply chain from the Middle East.
Experts highlighted that the ongoing conflict may escalate concerns over global economic recession, potentially leading to a decline in China’s exports.
The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict remains uncertain, with experts indicating that a prolonged conflict could have far-reaching consequences on China’s economy, particularly in relation to energy imports and exports to the Middle East.
Moreover, experts noted that disruptions in shipping routes due to the conflict could lead to escalating costs, affecting various sectors including oil prices, insurance expenses, freight charges, and route security.
As the conflict continues, the global economy faces the risk of recession, which in turn could dampen China’s export prospects and economic growth. The potential economic fallout from an extended conflict underscores the interconnectedness of global trade dynamics and geopolitical tensions.