Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public for over 48 hours since his appointment on Sunday (March 8th). As of Tuesday night, he has not made any public statements or appeared in any image records.
This has raised suspicions among observers whether his prolonged absence is purely for security reasons or if he is merely a leader forced out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and under their control.
Sources have told Reuters that the IRGC played a crucial role in this power transition, acting as the key “kingmaker” in the appointment. The IRGC, recognized as a terrorist organization by the US, Australia, and the EU, disregarded concerns from the pragmatic factions within Iran and forcefully pushed through this appointment.
Insiders have indicated that the IRGC chose Mojtaba because they believe he is more “pliant” than his father, which they believe will help the Guard to fully control domestic and foreign policies in the future.
While Mojtaba has operated behind the scenes for years, managing his father’s office as an influential figure, he remains relatively unfamiliar to many Iranians. Additionally, there are rumors suggesting he may have been injured in airstrikes by the US and Israel.
A news anchor on Iranian state television seemed to confirm the widespread rumor of Mojtaba being injured, describing him as a “janbaz,” or “gallant wounded veteran,” from the Ramadan War, as Iran refers to the current conflict.
At present, the exact status of Mojtaba’s health cannot be verified, but his continued silence has led to various speculations. Aside from rumors of his injury, the precarious security situation in Iran is also considered one of the possible reasons for his silence.
Iranian officials have informed Reuters that the IRGC meticulously orchestrated the election behind the scenes. Due to the destruction of the original meeting place, the Assembly of Experts responsible for electing the leader was forced to convene in a secret location, with some members unable to participate due to communication disruptions.
An anonymous former reformist official revealed that the IRGC threatened critics of Mojtaba, compelling members of the Assembly of Experts to ultimately support him.
In the past, the late Supreme Leader Khamenei could restrain the Revolutionary Guard and balance the opinions of the Guard, political bureaucrats, and religious elites. However, a source mentioned that the current Iran is effectively controlled by the IRGC.
Analysts believe this marks Iran’s transition from the traditional religious leadership to a military-political state dominated by the Guard.
Alex Vatanka, a senior researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, stated, “Mojtaba owes favors to the IRGC, so he won’t have the absolute authority his father had.”
This power shift has already been evidenced in practice. Sources mentioned that last Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was condemned by the IRGC for apologizing to Gulf countries and was subsequently forced to retract some of his statements.
Despite official efforts to portray unity, the Iranian public harbors distrust towards this hereditary successor lacking administrative qualifications.
Social media platforms are filled with dark humor, with Persian-speaking users mockingly referring to the missing leader as “Schrödinger’s Khamenei,” highlighting the ambiguity surrounding his status and well-being.
One widely shared post humorously exclaimed, “I think we’re not dealing with Schrödinger’s cat now, but Schrödinger’s Khamenei. Until they show him, we won’t know if he’s alive or dead.”
Some posts jokingly suggest that announcing Mojtaba as the new leader can solve multiple political problems simultaneously, stating, “Announcing Mojtaba as the leader is actually quite clever. You can’t kill someone who is already dead.”
Another post, in a similarly blunt dark humor tone, reads, “You know what’s better than one dead Khamenei? Two dead Khameneis.”
Unlike most senior politicians, Mojtaba has rarely appeared in speeches or interviews, with very few publicly available audio recordings of his voice. Iranian netizens have turned this fact into a joke.
One widely circulated post humorously remarked, “Even Mojtaba Khamenei’s audio isn’t enough for AI to train and mimic his voice.”
These sarcastic posts hint at a further weakening of the Iranian regime’s dwindling support base under the tough transition lacking popular support and religious consensus.
The most pressing question remains when and if Mojtaba will make a public appearance. This uncertainty also reflects the broader internal uncertainties within the Iranian political system regarding their leadership direction.