Is the CCP playing with fire? Iranian vessel laden with military supplies leaves Chinese port.

The Washington Post’s analysis of ship tracking data, satellite images, and records from the US Treasury Department has revealed that two Iranian vessels, belonging to the state-owned shipping company IRISL, departed from the chemical storage port of Gao Lan Port in Zhuhai, China last week. IRISL has been sanctioned by the US, UK, and EU for allegedly providing materials to Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Gao Lan Port is a chemical handling port in Zhuhai, which includes the loading and unloading of sodium chlorate. Sodium chlorate is a key precursor for the solid rocket fuel urgently needed for Iran’s missile program. Since the beginning of this year, more than a dozen IRISL vessels have been shuttling to and from Gao Lan Port. Two ships, the Shabdis and the Barzin, capable of carrying 6,500 and 14,500 20-foot containers respectively, have been stationed at Gao Lan Port.

According to depth analysis of the vessels, it is believed that both the Barzin and Shabdis may have been loaded with cargo. Pole Star Defense, a maritime intelligence company, independently confirmed this analysis.

Experts suggest that given the current tensions between the US and Iran, China should have been vigilant about allowing ships carrying weapon-related materials to head towards Iran. Carnegie International Peace Foundation senior researcher Isaac Kardon stated that the cargo most likely includes sodium chlorate, essential for Iran’s missile program. He noted that China could have detained the vessels but chose not to, indicating a deliberate policy decision.

Miad Maleki, a former official at the US Treasury Department who was involved in Iran sanctions and now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, believes that based on historical transport patterns and the involvement of IRISL, the ships are likely transporting sodium chlorate.

AIS data shows that the Barzin is currently anchored off the coast of Malaysia, heading towards Bandar Abbas Port about 4,000 miles away, while the Shabdis is still en route and is expected to arrive at the Chabahar Port in Iran after a journey of approximately 4,500 miles by March 16. Both these ports are located in the Hormuz Strait, home to important Iranian naval bases.

Grant Rumley, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that the potential transport of sodium chlorate is concerning, as Iran has been launching significant missile and drone attacks in the Gulf region. Any support for Iran in such activities could worsen China’s relations with several Gulf countries.

Analyses indicate that apart from the two vessels in question, 12 other IRISL ships have made stops at Gao Lan Port since the beginning of the year, most carrying cargo. Intelligence assessments and satellite image analyses suggest that several of these vessels, including the Barzin, are known carriers of sodium chlorate.

In mid-February, when the US military gathered near Iran and nuclear negotiations stalled, some ships were shuttling between Gao Lan Port and the Shahid Rajaee Port in Iran, which was a site of a deadly explosion last year. Data shows that cargo was being unloaded at Shahid Rajaee despite safety concerns. Recent disruptions in AIS transmissions suggest that ships are altering their routes post-US airstrikes.

For years, the US has accused China of supplying missile-related technology and materials to Iran, a charge that China denies. Last year, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions to prevent the flow of sodium chlorate and dioctyl sebacate from China to Iran and disrupt Iran’s ballistic missile production.

Sodium chlorate is used in the production of ammonium perchlorate, which in turn is used in solid rocket propellants for ballistic missiles. Its civilian applications are limited, with its significance in missile development and production being crucial. Following recent US airstrikes targeting Iran’s missile storage facilities, the demand for propellant precursors has become a matter of utmost importance for Iran.