On Wednesday, March 4, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the potential oil market risks stemming from a US-Israeli war with Iran. He stated that the global oil supply is ample, and the US government will take measures to support the oil transportation industry.
“I encourage everyone not to be misled by external noise, but to see the direction of the oil market after this war – the oil market supply is very sufficient,” Bessent said in an interview with the US financial news network CNBC. “Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil are currently sailing far away from the Persian Gulf. But more importantly, we will announce a series of measures.”
He pointed out that President Trump has announced that the US government will provide reasonable low-cost insurance for oil tankers and that the US Navy will ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary.
After the US and Israel jointly carried out military strikes against Iran, Iran began frequent attacks on ships passing through the critical energy passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Following Iran’s attacks on six ships, the shipping in this vital energy passage was almost brought to a standstill.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman, through which one-fifth of the global oil and liquefied natural gas must pass.
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz has always been one of Iran’s main retaliatory targets. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to “set fire to any ship attempting to pass through,” and Iranian officials have vowed to “not let a drop of oil flow out of the region.”
Due to the impact of the Iran war, energy prices have soared, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 12% so far this week, and European natural gas benchmark prices increasing by about 50%. Analysts warn that if the conflict persists, energy prices may be further driven up.
Major global insurance companies have refused to provide coverage for the Persian Gulf war risk, and shipping giants such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have announced the suspension of all transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.
A former chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) told Reuters that Iran’s shortage of strategic missile supplies is its vulnerability.
“Russia does not have the capability to provide supplies, and China will also be very cautious about this. If news of Beijing providing significant military equipment to Iran gets out, it will anger the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states,” he said.
The Gulf Cooperation Council is composed of Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE.
A Western intelligence source stated that Iran’s missile inventory may be dwindling, as Tehran has been supplying missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
According to Israeli military intelligence reports, during a 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, Iran’s missile stockpile also dwindled, but it may have partially recovered by now.
Research from the UK-based Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) indicates that due to Israeli and US airstrikes, Iran’s missile launch devices supply has decreased by at least half over the past year and has further declined in the past five days. However, Iran may still use drones or older missiles.
Reuters reported that intelligence sources and military analysts believe that Iran’s drone attacks could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz for several months, but it remains unclear how long the Iranian regime can sustain missile attacks.