Recently, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran, resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. This event has shaken the global community and brought the comments of various experts, scholars, and internet personalities from mainland China back into the spotlight.
Before the United States officially took military action, several Chinese scholars publicly stated that the likelihood of the U.S. launching a “total war” against Iran was low. They pointed out that factors such as military costs, regional risks, and domestic political pressure may hinder Washington from being ready for a prolonged conflict.
Former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, Hu Xijin, had previously stated in a video on his Weibo account on February 28 that Iranian media reported that the Supreme Leader was “safe” and that the “decapitation” operation by the U.S. and Israel was unsuccessful. However, shortly after, Iran confirmed the death of the Supreme Leader in the attack, leading to Hu Xijin quietly taking down the video.
On March 2, Hu Xijin criticized the U.S., saying, “The U.S. has acted too immorally this time.” He expressed that as a superpower, the U.S. engaged in undeclared warfare against Iran and directly targeted its top leadership and key officials.
In the comments section of the video, many netizens questioned the inconsistency in Hu Xijin’s stance. Some mocked him, saying he was “constantly slapping his own face, back and forth. Fortunately, the internet has a memory.”
A netizen joked, “Old Hu, can you predict the lottery numbers for the next draw? We’ll bet the opposite.”
Chinese National Defense University professor and colonel Li Li once analyzed on a program that “as long as the U.S. ignites the Middle East, Iran can wipe out Israel in half an hour.” Li Li emphasized that the U.S. would face strong retaliation if it chose to use force.
Li Li’s remarks were widely circulated by netizens after the U.S. launched the raid, with some sarcastically noting that her “reverse predictions are always accurate.”
Earlier, Li Li had boasted about Venezuela’s military strength on a military program on a TV channel, with “Chinese Military View” reporting, “Li Li: With S-300 in Venezuela, the U.S. dares not act rashly.” Yet, the U.S. easily captured their “good friend” Maduro.
The predictions of experts like Li Li astonished many in the country.
Another renowned professor and major general at the National Defense University, Jin Yinan, stated that the U.S. is “unable to afford, sustain, or win” a conflict with Iran, citing that 70% of Americans are anti-war.
Jin Yinan further claimed that if Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. economy would collapse.
A blogger named “Lianshan Fisherman” remarked that in the international political arena, there is a weapon more precise and deadly than missiles or satellites, which comes from certain Chinese “brick” influencers and internet celebrities with millions of followers. They decide who lives and dies, never missing their mark.
He mentioned that these so-called CCP experts seem to have forgotten a basic Confucian concept: “A gentleman harmonizes but does not conform; a small-minded person conforms but does not harmonize.” They interpret internal debates and anti-war demonstrations in Western countries as signs of weakness, unaware that a nation capable of openly discussing the costs of war possesses the most formidable energy once mobilized for war.
After the military operation took place, some circulated content summarized the analyses of these scholars as “the U.S. will not take military action.” Fudan University professor Shen Yi clarified on Weibo that his focus was on analyzing the risks and benefits of total war, not directly predicting whether a war would occur. However, some netizens dug up past statements where Shen Yi had claimed that the U.S. would not dare to use force against Iran and that a total war was absolutely impossible.
The article from “Lianshan Fisherman” concluded by suggesting that the experts were at least accomplices in the death of the Supreme Leader. They might be dismantling a brick from the walls of Tehran every time they receive appearance fees in the studio. Perhaps they have a clear conscience, considering their work merely as a performance. After all, speaking words that leaders and flatterers like to hear in the current environment is a lucrative business.
The article finally expressed that while the night sky in Tehran still glitters despite the passing of the Supreme Leader, another one has quietly been removed from the circle of CCP friends.