The head of the US Navy intelligence division warned at a congressional hearing on Monday (March 2) that the Chinese navy is significantly increasing its submarine production and may soon deploy a new type of submarine. This submarine has the capability to launch nuclear missiles from its protected coastal waters, with a potential range covering most of the United States.
According to reports from SAN News website on Tuesday (March 3), Rear Admiral Richard Seif, the commander of the US Navy submarine fleet, and Rear Admiral Mike Brookes from the Office of Naval Intelligence issued warnings at a hearing held by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission at the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C. They highlighted that China is rapidly constructing advanced submarines that could directly launch missiles to strike the US mainland from its coastal waters.
Their testimonies during the hearing indicated that the US Navy’s decades-long underwater dominance in the Pacific is facing its most severe challenge. Submarines, known as the “silent service,” have been one of Washington’s most powerful assets in the Indo-Pacific region. However, China aims to challenge the US advantage.
Admiral Seif emphasized that the US currently maintains critical underwater capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, as US submarines can remain undetected and carry out missions in highly contested waters for extended periods.
He stated that the competition extends beyond submarines. Chinese state media has referred to its integrated system of fixed and mobile sensors, unmanned systems, and data processing as the “Underwater Great Wall,” aiming to enhance detection and tracking capabilities in high-value strategic areas.
Admiral Brookes highlighted that China’s next-generation submarines, including the Type 095 (first vessel launched and in outfitting stage) and Type 096, are expected to enter service from the late 2020s to 2030s. These submarines will see advancements in nuclear reactor design, sensor performance, weapon integration, and noise reduction technology.
The Type 096 ballistic missile nuclear submarine is expected to be equipped with the JL-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile, which can directly threaten large areas in the US from China’s coastal defense zones. China currently uses the JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile, with an operational range reportedly exceeding 5,600 miles (approximately 9,012 kilometers), some estimates reaching even over 6,200 miles (approximately 9,978 kilometers). In comparison, the US Navy’s Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missile has a maximum range of approximately 7,456 miles (around 12,000 kilometers).
Admiral Brookes views the Type 096 as a new submarine surpassing China’s current Type 094 ballistic missile submarines, which can only target certain US areas from near the “First Island Chain” (connecting Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines).
He noted that China has significantly increased its domestic submarine production capacity by investing more in major shipyards, with the annual output of nuclear submarines rising significantly.
By 2027, Admiral Brookes predicts that China’s submarine fleet could reach around 70 vessels, including over 50 diesel-electric submarines, some of which have seen significant improvements across several generations, such as the Yuan-class submarines that have greatly extended submerged endurance.
By 2035, China’s submarine fleet could potentially expand to 80 vessels, with about half being nuclear-powered submarines, which will be regularly deployed to more distant waters.
Admiral Seif stated in another testimony that China’s modernized nuclear-powered submarines, including the newer Type 095 missile nuclear submarines succeeding the aging Type 093, have been enhancing their combat capabilities. This has heightened the demands on the US and its allies for anti-submarine warfare capabilities, complicating conflict scenarios in highly contested waters.
Admiral Brookes compared China’s expansion in submarine construction with the constraints faced by the US, discussing challenges such as recruiting and retaining workers, maintaining delivery schedules for Virginia-class attack submarines and Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, among other issues.
Chairman of the commission, Randall Schriver, also issued a warning, stating that if the US fails to take measures to maintain its underwater advantage, there is a risk of losing this advantage.
Admiral Seif emphasized that the US needs more readily available submarines, improved underwater sensing and counter-sensing capabilities, rapid deployment of unmanned underwater systems, increased depth for ammunition and payload capacity, and closer combat integration with allies in the Indo-Pacific region.