Less than 100 days remain until the California primary election on June 2nd. Following the redrawing of districts in California last year, out of 52 congressional districts, Democrats now hold the majority in 48 districts with over 92% of registered voters, leaving only 4 districts where Republicans have the advantage.
California underwent redistricting of 41 districts, and out of the 11 districts that were previously Republican-leaning, 6 now have a majority of Democratic voters, with only districts 5, 20, 23, and 40 still having a Republican majority.
District delineation plays a crucial role in determining election outcomes. According to information from the Secretary of State’s office on December 30th last year, Democrats and Republicans in California accounted for 44.96% (approximately 10.38 million) and 25.14% (approximately 5.8 million) of registered voters, respectively. However, following the redistricting, Democrats have gained over 92% advantage, potentially securing 47 to 48 congressional seats. Republican candidates need to appeal to independent voters and some Democratic voters to have a chance at winning.
There are approximately 5.23 million non-partisan voters in California, representing 22.65% of the voter base, while other party-affiliated voters total approximately 1.675 million, making up 7.25%.
In an effort to counterbalance the potential gain of 5 seats for Republicans in congressional districts in Texas post-redistricting, California Governor Gavin Newsom and the overwhelmingly Democratic lawmakers proposed Proposition 50. In November last year, California voters approved the ballot measure with a 64.4% majority, making redistricting feasible. The new district maps were then quickly developed through secretive operations within the state legislature. In contrast, California’s last redistricting was conducted after the 2020 census, with independent commission members gathering input over several months, hosting nearly 200 public meetings, and collecting over 32,000 written opinions before finalizing the district maps.
In November last year, 19 California citizens and the California Republican Party jointly filed the “Tangipa v. Newsom” case, accusing the state of redistricting based on racial interests and requesting a temporary halt in adopting the new district maps during litigation. The case was appealed to the Supreme Court. On February 4th this year, Justice Elena Kagan dismissed the injunction application for the duration of the lawsuit, meaning that candidates for the 2026 Congressional election will run based on the new district maps.
Post-redistricting party ratios of registered voters as of January 2026:
In Northern California, significant changes are seen in the maps of districts 1 to 6. Of the three current Republican representatives, Doug LaMalfa of District 1 passed away in January, Kevin Kiley of District 3, and Tom McClintock of District 5. According to the new maps, only District 5 retains a Republican majority, while the other two districts have 8-10% more Democratic registered voters, with a 36.6% change in District 1 and 13.7% in District 3.
In Central California, incumbent Republican representative David G. Valadao of District 22 served as congressman for Districts 21 and 22 between 2013-2019 and from 2021 to present, winning District 22 with 53.4% in 2024. Post-redistricting, District 22 now has 42% Democratic voters, 25% Republican voters, and 31% others and independents, marking a 17% change and a 17% gap between the two major parties.
In Southern California, Districts 41 and 48 shifted from Republican to Democratic majorities, with changes of 19.8% and 18.5%, respectively. Republican representative Ken Calvert of District 41 has been in office since 1993, with the district changing between 43, 44, 42, and 41 over the years. Post-redistricting, District 41 now has 46% Democratic voters, 26% Republican, and 27% for other parties and independents, with a 20% difference between the two major parties.
Republican representative Darrell E. Issa of District 48 served as congressman for Districts 48, 49, 50, and back to 48 from 2001-2019 and since 2021. In November 2024, Issa won with a 59.3% majority, approximately 67,000 more votes than his opponent. Post-redistricting, District 48 now has 37% Democratic registered voters, 33% Republican, 29% other party affiliations, with a 4% gap between the two major parties.
Moreover, in several districts where the number of voters for both major parties was similar, such as Districts 9, 22, and 45, these areas now resemble Democratic strongholds post-redistricting.