On Tuesday, as the Russo-Ukrainian war marked its 4th anniversary, data released showed that Russia’s oil exports have increased, but the income gained from oil and gas exports in the past 12 months has seen a downward trend.
Russia heavily relies on energy income to support its expenses in the war with Ukraine. To cut off this source of funding and weaken the Russian military, Western countries have been imposing increasingly severe sanctions on Russia.
According to an analysis report released by the non-profit organization Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), in the past 12 months leading up to February 24, 2026, Russia’s total revenue from exports of oil, natural gas, coal, and refined products amounted to 193 billion euros, a significant decline of 27% compared to the pre-war period.
Since 2022, Russia’s natural gas exports have collapsed, but Western sanctions have not completely weakened Russia’s oil export volume. Instead, they have forced Moscow to “lower prices to sell.”
CREA pointed out that Russia’s revenue from crude oil exports decreased by 18% over the past 12 months, but at the same time, the volume of crude oil exports was 6% higher than the pre-war level, reaching 215 million tons.
In response to Western sanctions, Moscow has diverted most of its seaborne crude oil exports to China, India, and Turkey, often using old, uninsured “shadow fleets” to evade Western inspections.
However, this year’s stricter restrictions may have a more devastating impact on Russia’s fuel exports. US President Trump has made “eliminating reliance on Russian crude oil” a prerequisite for signing a US-India trade agreement.
Previously, India had promised the Trump administration to no longer purchase Russian oil in exchange for the US lowering tariffs on India to 18%. However, after the US Supreme Court overturned Trump’s global tariffs, this negotiation is now on hold.
On the other hand, the European Union is preparing for a comprehensive ban, intending to block any commercial activities supporting Russian seaborne crude oil exports, far surpassing previous sanctions. However, due to Hungary exercising its veto power over a disputed Ukrainian oil pipeline, the EU failed to pass the sanctions on Monday, February 23.
Currently, over a third of Russia’s oil exports rely on Western oil tankers and shipping services. Once the EU’s proposed ban is passed, it will put an end to this practice (which mainly supplies India and China). Moreover, the “Russian oil price cap mechanism” that the Group of Seven (G7) has been trying to implement will become obsolete and meaningless without Russian oil participation in trading.
(This article referenced reporting from Reuters)