The Deputy Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, Zhang Youxia, was unexpectedly investigated last month, leading to a heightened atmosphere of political purges in Beijing. Following the downfall of Zhang Youxia and another Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, He Weidong, observers have turned their attention to the former Party Secretary of Xinjiang, Ma Xingrui, who has not been seen in public for a long time. Analysis suggests that if Ma Xingrui is formally removed from office, it will be the biggest shake-up at the level of the Central Political Bureau of the CPC since the Cultural Revolution. Questions arise about when cracks in Xi Jinping’s centralized rule may appear, or even lead to his downfall.
Under the increasingly centralized and politically opaque system of the Chinese Communist Party, observers are trying to predict the next move by scrutinizing signs such as absent officials and seating arrangements. Various indications suggest that Ma Xingrui, the former Party Secretary of Xinjiang and member of the Political Bureau, is highly likely to be the next senior official to fall from grace.
Ma Xingrui’s political fate has been uncertain since he was relieved from his position as Party Secretary of Xinjiang in July 2025. At that time, the official announcement claimed he had been appointed to another position but did not specify the role. Ma Xingrui’s last public appearance was during the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central CPC Committee in October 2025, and he has since been absent from multiple important high-level meetings.
Unlike the swift downfall of Zhang Youxia, rumors about Ma Xingrui’s troubles have been circulating for some time without an official announcement.
Ding Shufan, an honorary professor at the Institute of East Asian Studies at Taiwan University, told Dajiyuan that the Ma Xingrui case seems to be less urgent compared to that of Zhang Youxia. “Ma Xingrui has worked in several places, and issues have arisen in the aerospace industry system. Whether it’s in Shenzhen (Guangdong) or Xinjiang, there may need to be investigations, so it may take some time,” he said.
The CCP will hold the “Two Sessions” in early March, with the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress meeting on February 25-26 to review the “credentials of individual representatives.” Currently, there is speculation as to whether this might involve the credentials of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, another Military Commission member who fell from grace concurrently with him. The official announcement of Ma Xingrui’s downfall may also be imminent.
Independent commentator Xiangyang told Dajiyuan that Ma Xingrui is likely to be the first big “tiger” of the Year of the Horse and will likely be brought down soon. Apart from issues involving his family’s corruption, problems may surface during his time in Guangdong, Xinjiang, and in the aerospace military industrial system.
The CCP has seen numerous members of the Central Political Bureau fall from grace in internal power struggles since the First Plenum of the Fifth National Congress in May 1927, with almost every session having at least one member ousted (excluding those who died of illness).
Among the most frequent casualties were during the late period of Mao Zedong’s reign.
The members of the Eighth Central Political Bureau were criticized in the political movements launched by Mao Zedong, with many being severely attacked. Peng Dehuai and Zhang Wentian were criticized in August 1959, effectively losing their positions as Political Bureau members. Following the start of the Cultural Revolution, Peng Zhen and Lu Dingyi effectively lost their positions in May 1966. Others who fell from grace include Ulanhu (August 1966), Peng Dehuai (December 1966), Bo Yibo, Tao Zhu, Deng Xiaoping, Liu Shaoqi, and Li Jingquan (January 1967), Song Renqiong, Tan Zhenlin (August 1967), and He Long (September 1967).
During the Ninth Central Political Bureau, Chen Boda was isolated for review in September 1970, and Li Xuefeng was isolated for review in January 1971. Lin Biao and Ye Qun died in a plane crash in September 1971 (non-natural causes). Li Zuopeng, Wu Faxian, Qiu Huizuo, and Huang Yongsheng were isolated for review in September 1971.
In the Tenth Central Political Bureau, Deng Xiaoping was removed from all party and state positions in April 1976. As the Cultural Revolution ended, Wang Hongwen, Zhang Chunqiao, Jiang Qing, and Yao Wenyuan were isolated for review in October 1976 and were effectively stripped of their positions as Political Bureau members. In July 1977, Wang Hongwen, Zhang Chunqiao, Jiang Qing, and Yao Wenyuan were expelled from the party.
After the Cultural Revolution, during the Thirteenth Central Political Bureau, Zhao Ziyang was suspended from work in May 1989 and removed from his position as a Political Bureau member in June 1989. Hu Qili’s position as a Political Bureau member was also revoked.
Among the members of the Twentieth Central Political Bureau elected in October 2022, two Vice Chairmen of the Military Commission, He Weidong and Zhang Youxia, fell from grace. Following Ma Xingrui’s dismissal as Party Secretary of Xinjiang and his long disappearance, it is suggested that he is entering the process of downfall.
Chen Pokong, a senior commentator based in the United States, told Dajiyuan that the current Political Bureau, including the Central Committee of this session, are all handpicked by Xi Jinping to forcibly secure a third term, demonstrating his inability to govern. “He has made corruption worse and lacks basic competence in personnel management, appointing only cronies,” he said.
He analyzed that initially, the Political Bureau should have 25 odd-numbered members, but Xi excluded Hu Chunhua in the Twentieth Session and also excluded females. With 24 people, decision-making becomes challenging if it becomes a 12 vs. 12 situation, leaving Xi to make unilateral decisions. With the recent reduction of three members, Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, and possibly Ma Xingrui’s imminent downfall, further purges are likely. This represents the most significant shake-up since the Cultural Revolution, indicating that this regime has entered a precarious stage.
Chen Pokong stated that Mao Zedong’s personal dictatorship caused significant damage to China, but Deng Xiaoping learned from that and developed collective leadership. Xi Jinping, driven by his personal interests, has destroyed everything, aiming for lifelong rule, which could potentially lead to a repetition of all the tragedies of the Cultural Revolution. Single-party rule is inherently flawed, and adding individual dictatorship only compounds the issue, inevitably leading to failure.
Originally seen as a hindrance to Xi Jinping’s reelection, Zhang Youxia had been stated in military media to continue the purge of “corruption leftovers.” Xiangyang believes that no one can currently control Xi Jinping, and he will continue his purges to consolidate power further, indicating that he will fight to maintain his position. If he is removed now and decides on his successor, he will await retribution.
Ding Shufan pointed out that during the Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao eras, there was a supposed balance of factions. However, under Xi’s rule, all factions have been eliminated. Xi holds absolute power over the rise and fall of officials he has promoted, and his position appears to be stable for now.
The Soviet Communist regime existed for 74 years (1917-1991). The Chinese Communist regime has been in place since its establishment on October 1, 1949, totaling around 76 years to date.
Ding Shufan mentioned that the academic world is currently discussing why the Chinese Communist Party seems to endure longer than the Soviet Communist Party. This is primarily due to the intensified control over the internet and media since Xi’s tenure began. Despite societal discontent, under Xi’s high level of control, local disturbances currently seem challenging to spread.
“Of course, the future still depends on Xi’s health. If his health deteriorates, certain cracks may appear,” he said.
Xiangyang also believes that Xi Jinping still holds absolute power, and if he falls, it would most likely be due to old-age dementia or memory loss – his physical health being the greatest variable.
Chen Pokong stated that the CCP is currently facing a crisis of unprecedented proportions, comparable to the Mao era. Mao resorted to tyrannical methods to maintain power. After the reform and opening up period, Xi Jinping reversed historical progress, with relics of an old age haunting the stage of a new era, resulting in various anomalies in China. He introduced a set of views that are anachronistic and pathological, which will lead to severe consequences.
He believes that with Xi Jinping coming to power, the Communist Party entered the late stage of communism, which is currently in the late Xi period.
“In history, every dynasty is riddled with problems. As long as it hasn’t completely collapsed, everyone thinks it’s stable and that someone holds great power. But when it collapses, it’s just a pile of ruins,” he said.
Chen Pokong stated that Xi Jinping’s path mirrors that of Nicolae Ceaușescu. Ceaușescu ruled Romania as General Secretary for over two decades, thinking he was invincible before being overthrown and killed in a hail of bullets. Xi Jinping attempting to hold onto power until the end, once health issues arise, all problems will surface, leading to a dramatic downfall for him.