On Tuesday, February 17, a study by the German economic think tank Ifo predicted that the population of Germany will decrease by 5% by 2050. This means that the German population will drop to the lowest level since 1990.
This revision is based on updated data from the German Federal Statistical Office. Previously, Ifo’s research predicted a 1% decline in the population by 2050.
The report’s author and economist Joachim Ragnitz warned, “Population changes will have significant impacts on various economic and social sectors.”
It is expected that Germany’s long-term economic growth rate will hover around 0.4%. With the labor market facing pressure due to population decline, this growth momentum may be further hindered. Ifo states that by 2050, the population aged 20 to 66 will decrease by about 12%, while the number of pension recipients will increase by over 20%.
In this scenario, Germany’s pay-as-you-go pension system may face increasing pressure. The government currently allocates about a quarter of the budget to support this system, and the Federal Audit Office warned in 2024 that this proportion is expected to rise further.
Ragnitz urges policymakers to urgently consider the issues of “accelerated population decline and aging”, particularly in the healthcare and long-term care sectors.
The German Federal Statistical Office has just revised its population estimate, projecting Germany’s population to be 83 million in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 85 million.
Based on the new data, Ifo adjusted its prediction, estimating that by 2050, the German population will decline by over 4 million to approximately 79 million, the lowest level since the early 1990s.
After the government tightened immigration policies, it is expected that by 2030, the influx of immigrants will be significantly lower than previously predicted.
According to the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Germany’s net immigrant intake in 2025 is projected to be 225,000, down from the previous estimate of 454,000. It is anticipated that over the next 25 years, this figure will increase to 250,000 annually.
Birth rate data has also been revised. Based on the new data, it is estimated that by 2030, the number of newborns in Germany will decrease by 150,000 compared to previous expectations.
Eastern Germany will be particularly affected by the population decline, while the impact on larger cities in the western part of the country is expected to be relatively smaller.