As the movements within the North Korean leadership continue to attract attention, on Thursday (February 12th), South Korean lawmakers quoted the South Korean National Intelligence Service’s report at a closed-door meeting, indicating that the recent activities and political involvement of Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Kim Jong Eun, suggest that her status has transitioned from a previous “under training” phase to a formal “successor-designate stage”.
Members of South Korea’s ruling party, the Democratic Party of Korea, Park Sun-won, and the largest opposition party’s lawmaker, Lee Seong-kweun, revealed the above information at a press conference.
Lee Seong-kweun stated, “Previously, the National Intelligence Service described Kim Jong Eun as undergoing ‘successor training,’ but today she has been designated to be in the ‘successor-designate stage’.”
Park Sun-won added that since the end of last year, Kim Jong Eun’s prominence in public appearances has been elevated to the position of “actual second person,” coupled with intelligence indicating that she is no longer just a symbolic figure when accompanying Kim Jong Un on inspections, but is beginning to provide suggestions on some state affairs and policies. The South Korean National Intelligence Service has assessed these factors and determined her status upgrade.
They mentioned that the South Korean National Intelligence Service sees the upcoming “9th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea” scheduled for late February as a crucial watershed to verify Kim Jong Eun’s successor status. They will closely monitor whether Kim Jong Eun officially attends the congress, her seating arrangement and protocol during the meeting, as well as whether North Korean state media will start using symbolic titles or award her with formal honors.
Regarding the specifics of the power transition in North Korea, the observations of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and the founder of NK Leadership Watch, Michael Madden, complement each other in analyzing the North Korean leadership.
On February 7th, Michael Madden told the Sun newspaper that Kim Jong Un is paving the way for his daughter to succeed, but if a sudden situation occurs within the regime, his sister Kim Yo Jong may temporarily take over as a “regent,” and may swiftly eliminate political adversaries to ensure regime stability until Kim Jong Eun is fully prepared to take over.
According to reports from the Korean Central News Agency, Kim Jong Un and his wife visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on New Year’s Day with Kim Jong Eun, her first public participation in such an event. Experts speculate that North Korea may be sending political signals related to the succession through such events.
In anticipation of the upcoming 9th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, the South Korean National Intelligence Service stated that considering February 16th is the birthday of Kim Jong Il, the congress may be held after the Lunar New Year holiday. At that time, North Korea is likely to finalize the “Five-Year Plan for Defense Development” and announce the “New Five-Year Plan for Economic Development.”
While focusing on the succession issue, the South Korean intelligence agency also disclosed the latest military developments in North Korea. Lawmakers Park Sun-won and Lee Seong-kweun quoted briefing content indicating that Kim Jong Un is overseeing the development of a large submarine with a displacement of 8,700 tons, designed to carry up to 10 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
Given its large tonnage, the South Korean intelligence department does not rule out the possibility of nuclear-powered propulsion for the submarine. However, it is currently unclear about the exact details of its power system and whether the submarine can be successfully deployed in combat as intended.
As the 9th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea approaches, the specific direction of the North Korean regime in terms of “hereditary power” and “nuclear weapons development” may become a focal point of international attention.