On February 6th, Xi Jinping attended a Spring Festival cultural performance to greet the new year and visited retired senior officers of the Beijing garrison. The only military leadership accompanying Xi was Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Shengmin.
Out of the seven members of the 20th Central Military Commission formed by Xi in 2022, besides Xi himself, Zhang Shengmin is the sole remaining member. Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission Zhang Yuxia, He Weidong, and Members of the Central Military Commission Li Shangfu, Miao Hua, and Liu Zhenli have all been removed.
One by one, those closest to Xi Jinping have been personally ordered to step down. Currently, Zhang Shengmin has become the closest person to Xi Jinping. What will happen to Zhang Shengmin’s future?
Many commentators believe that Zhang Shengmin is also in a precarious position, and he might be targeted by Xi Jinping one day.
It is reasonable to say that despite now being the only Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission under Xi’s direct command overseeing over two million troops, Zhang Shengmin’s position is delicate. If he makes a misstep, he could fall into a trap.
There are five reasons why Zhang Shengmin is in a high-risk situation:
Shortly after the conclusion of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, intense infighting within the top ranks of the military began. Xi Jinping started investigating a major case involving the Rocket Force, which eventually led to the removal of high-ranking officials such as Li Shangfu, Minister of National Defense and Member of the Central Military Commission.
The crackdown was orchestrated by Xi Jinping, He Weidong, and Miao Hua. Xi is overall responsible for the Central Military Commission; He Weidong is in charge of disciplinary inspection as the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission; Miao Hua is a key figure in Xi’s military circle, with greater qualifications and connections than He Weidong. Since 2017, he has been instrumental in assisting Xi in building his military circle.
Xi Jinping has various reasons for using Zhang Yuxia. They are both from Shaanxi Province, have had decades-long camaraderie, Zhang has supported Xi in critical moments, and some veteran support Zhang. However, Zhang’s allegiance to Xi is not based on flattery or belonging to Xi’s inner circle. Zhang is a seasoned military figure with combat experience from his participation in the Vietnam War, where he achieved military merit and advanced through the ranks.
Xi Jinping, not coming from a military background and lacking personal military achievements before taking office, has always had trust issues. While he retained the 72-year-old Zhang as a member of the CCP’s Politburo and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the 20th National Congress, Xi remains cautious of Zhang’s influence becoming too significant.
He and Miao actively pushed for a major purge of the military post the 20th Congress, with the goal to topple Zhang, allowing He Weidong to become the First Vice Chairman of the Military Commission and Miao Hua to become the Second Vice Chairman, ultimately establishing a leadership structure with Xi, He, and Miao at the helm.
The specific person investigating individuals such as Li Shangfu was the Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission, Zhang Shengmin.
At the time of promoting Zhang Shengmin to investigate Li Shangfu and others, Xi, He, and Miao were also conducting covert investigations on Zhang Yuxia and Zhang Shengmin.
Assistant Secretary of Defense Drew Thompson, in a January 26th post, mentioned rumors he had heard about Xi conducting private investigations on Zhang Yuxia and Zhang Shengmin back in 2023, revealed to him by a journalist named Minnie Chan from the South China Morning Post. The post stated:
“In October 2023, Minnie Chan, a journalist with the South China Morning Post, disappeared while attending the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing. At the time, she was investigating rumors about Zhang Yuxia and Zhang Shengmin being investigated.”
After Minnie Chan’s disappearance, most of the messages she sent to Drew Thompson were deleted, except for one that remained: In September 2023, Drew Thompson asked, “Do you think Zhang Yuxia and Zhang Shengmin are in trouble and being investigated?” She replied, “Yes.”
In 2024, during the 20th Central Committee Third Plenum, Xi Jinping suddenly fell ill and was hospitalized, marking a crucial turning point in the military purge.
Seizing this opportunity, Zhang Yuxia, with the support of dissatisfied party elders, second-generation reds, and military leaders, began to counterattack.
Subsequently, a second round of purges commenced after the 20th Congress, leading to the downfall of key figures like Miao Hua, the Central Military Commission Member and Political Director, and He Weidong, the Communist Party Politburo Member and Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
After He and Miao’s removal, a group of senior military leaders associated with them also fell, including Deputy Political Director of the Military Commission He Hongjun, Deputy Director of the Joint Command Center Wang Xiubin, Eastern Theater Commander Lin Xiangyang, Army Political Commissar Qin Shutong, Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin, and Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning.
All of these generals were part of the forces assembled by He and Miao to support Xi, with Zhang Shengmin aiding Zhang Yuxia in cleansing them. Zhang had a hand in taking down many of Xi’s trusted individuals.
Will Zhang Shengmin reap the rewards of assisting Zhang Yuxia in removing Xi’s allies? As mentioned, while aiding Xi in investigating Li Shangfu, Xi’s envoys were also secretly investigating Zhang Yuxia and Zhang Shengmin simultaneously.
As the saying goes: A praying mantis catching cicadas, unaware of the oriole behind. Zhang Shengmin, as the subordinate of Xi and Zhang, must obey them both, but when his superiors face off, his position becomes increasingly challenging.
Since assuming the position of Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission in January 2017, Zhang Shengmin has held the post for nine years, the longest tenure of any Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission since the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
The most crucial responsibility of the Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission is handling major cases. The longer one holds the position, the more such cases they handle.
According to reports from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and its official website, initial estimates indicate that Zhang Shengmin may have handled approximately 260 high-ranking cases involving generals.
Among these significant cases are eight key individuals: Xi Jinping, Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission Zhang Yuxia and He Weidong; Members of the Central Military Commission Zhang Yang, Miao Hua; Members of the Central Military Commission and heads of the Joint Staff Department Fang Fenghui, and Liu Zhenli; Members of the Central Military Commission and State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu.
The more high-profile cases Zhang Shengmin handles, the more enemies he makes, and the more people wish to see him removed from his position.
Coming from the Lanzhou Military Region, Zhang Shengmin formerly served as Deputy Director of the Political Research Office of the Lanzhou Military Region, under the command of Guo Boxiong, then Commander of the Lanzhou Military Region. He later became the Director of the Political Research Office of the General Political Department, under the command of Xu Caihou, Chief of Staff of the CCP’s Central Military Commission.
After the military reforms initiated by Xi Jinping in 2015, Zhang Shengmin successively held positions such as Political Commissar of the Training Management Department of the Military Commission, Political Commissar of the Logistics Support Department of the Military Commission, and Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission.
At the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Zhang Shengmin became a Central Committee Member, Member of the Central Military Commission, and Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission. He continued to hold these positions at the 20th Congress.
Zhang Shengmin was promoted to Lieutenant General in July 2016 and to General in February 2018.
From Zhang Shengmin’s career trajectory, it is evident that his rise to prominence occurred during Xi Jinping’s tenure. Broadly speaking, he is a member of Xi’s military circle, with Xi being his main supporter.
However, compared to figures like He Weidong and Miao Hua, who are from Xi’s inner circle known as the “direct line forces” from the 31st Group Army, Zhang Shengmin is one step removed from Xi. He used to serve under Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, senior officials who were later purged by Xi. This puts him at a distance from Xi and without a genuine stronghold.
Since Xi cannot truly count on Zhang Shengmin, who is his only Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, he remains in a precarious position.
Over the course of the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, eight Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission have fallen, including figures like Peng Dehuai, He Long, Lin Biao, Zhao Ziyang, Xu Caihou, Guo Boxiong, He Weidong, and Zhang Yuxia.
From the analysis above, the current Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Shengmin, remains in a perilous situation, where even sleep might not come easily.
(Dajiyuan was the first to report)