On Friday, February 6, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio published an article stating that with the expiration of the arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, the world will enter a new era of nuclear arms control, with the next step being the inclusion of both China and Russia.
Rubio published a lengthy article on Substack, highlighting that the New START Treaty between the US and Russia expired on Thursday, no longer addressing the latest challenges posed by Beijing. He emphasized the sincere desire to reduce global nuclear threats but stated that the US would not accept terms that harm its interests or turn a blind eye to the other party’s violations.
The Secretary of State underscored the need to hold all potential nuclear partners to high standards and negotiate from a position of strength, recognizing the complexity of involving multiple countries in future agreements.
During the Cold War, negotiations on limiting and reducing enormous nuclear arsenals between the US and the Soviet Union were complex and required trust-building between adversaries with little reason to believe each other’s words. The US engaged persistently in negotiations with the Soviet Union and later the Russian Federation to enhance its security through a series of agreements.
However, as the New START Treaty expired, concerns arose about the US initiating a new nuclear arms race. These speculations overlook Russia’s violation of treaty terms for years, leading to the cessation of the New START Treaty in 2023. Facing the choice of unilaterally constraining itself or recognizing the need for a new approach in a multi-nuclear adversary era, the US seeks a fresh start transcending outdated arms reduction strategies with an agreement involving not one but two nuclear challengers – Russia and China.
Since the New START Treaty came into effect, China has rapidly and opaquely expanded its nuclear arsenal, rendering the traditional arms control model based on US-Russia bilateral agreements obsolete. China has increased its nuclear stockpile from over 200 warheads in 2020 to potentially exceeding 1,000 warheads by 2030, with Russian support. Failing to address China’s nuclear armament, while Russia backs it, will undoubtedly weaken the security of the US and its allies.
President Trump has consistently emphasized that future arms control must encompass not just one but two nuclear adversaries.
The call for multilateral nuclear arms control and strategic stability talks presented today in Geneva reflects the principles outlined by President Trump. Firstly, arms control is no longer solely a matter between the US and Russia. Other countries have a responsibility to ensure strategic stability, with China facing primary accountability. Secondly, the US will not accept terms that compromise its interests or ignore violations in pursuit of future agreements. Clear standards have been set, ensuring that arms control does not undermine these criteria. Thirdly, negotiations will always be conducted from a position of strength. Russia and China should not expect the US to turn a blind eye to their obligations or nuclear proliferation. A robust, credible, and modern nuclear deterrent will be maintained. Efforts will be maximized to fulfill the President’s sincere wish to reduce the presence of such terrifying weapons globally.
Recognizing that this process will take time, past agreements, including the New START Treaty, have taken years of negotiations and built upon decades of precedent. These agreements were made between two major powers, not among three or more countries. However, encountering difficulties does not mean giving up on the pursuit or settling for second best. President Trump understands that challenging deals are often the only ones worth pursuing, emphasizing the immense power of nuclear weapons and his desire to reduce global nuclear threats. Today in Geneva, we are taking the first step toward a future where global nuclear threats are significantly reduced, rather than just on paper. We invite others to join us in this endeavor.