On January 24th, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, and Liu Zhenli, a member of the Military Commission, were suddenly investigated, with various versions circulating about the reasons behind their fall from grace. Analysts pointed out that Zhang Youxia and the CCP leader Xi Jinping had been at odds for a long time, especially after an incident that angered Xi, which ultimately led to Zhang’s downfall following a power struggle after the Fourth Plenum last year.
The term “kill line” originated from a gaming term, referring to when a player’s status drops to a critical level that can be instantly killed with one blow.
Independent commentator Du Zheng wrote in the Taiwanese media “Shang Bao” on February 4th, stating that in the power play of the Chinese Communist Party, there is also a “kill line”, such as in the conflict between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping, where Zhang eventually reached the critical point where Xi could make a decisive move against him.
Du Zheng believed that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were not actually planning a coup as rumored, but along with some CCP elders, they were attempting to prevent Xi Jinping from seeking another term to avoid potential risks to the party and the nation.
The article mentioned that Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping had been close associates. However, during the 18th National Congress of the CCP, when Zhang entered the Central Military Commission just like Xi did, it was the result of negotiations between various factions of senior party members. During Xi’s second term, Zhang served as the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, and there were no apparent conflicts between Zhang and Xi at that time. But by the time of the 20th National Congress, 72-year-old Zhang managed to stay in office with the support of the elders, which went against Xi’s plan to have his confidants, He Weidong and Miao Hua, as the Vice Chairmen of the Military Commission.
Du Zheng pointed out that Zhang Youxia had close ties with several CCP elders, which in a way seemed to marginalize Xi within the military. He also did something that greatly angered Xi.
After Xi Jinping initiated military reforms, in early 2018, he personally donned camouflage and issued training orders to the entire army at the training ground, embodying the concept of “commander personally leading troops”, which was greatly appreciated by Xi. From 2019 to 2022, Xi signed orders for military drills with great fanfare, but by 2023, this practice abruptly stopped, with no mention of Xi’s name in the reports on military drills.
Du Zheng explained that this was because after Zhang Youxia became the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, he believed that Xi’s approach was cultivating a personality cult, so he strongly opposed Xi’s continuation of this practice. At that time, Xi didn’t dare confront Zhang directly and had to endure the situation.
Subsequently, He Weidong and Miao Hua suggested to Xi to target Zhang indirectly by investigating the equipment system and the rocket forces. By the end of July 2023, the Commander of the Rocket Force Li Yuchao and the Political Commissar Xu Zhongbo both encountered problems. During the same period, the military conducted investigations on corrupt equipment procurements since October 2017, directly targeting the then Minister of National Defense, Li Shangfu, but conspicuously avoiding Zhang Youxia, who had served as the head of equipment development department until September 2017.
Du Zheng believed that setting a time limit for the investigations was not a deliberate act of leniency toward Zhang Youxia by Xi Jinping, but rather the result of negotiations between Zhang and Xi. At that time, Zhang could only temporarily protect himself at the cost of sacrificing Li Shangfu, who was dismissed from his position in October 2023.
During the “Two Sessions” of the CCP in March 2024, He Weidong stated during a military representatives’ meeting that they would combat the army’s “fake combat capabilities”, targeting Zhang Youxia for purchasing flawed equipment and falsifying training reports. In response, Zhang collected evidence of He Weidong’s corruption, especially regarding Miao Hua selling official positions, and pressured Xi Jinping to agree to investigate. Miao Hua was suspended from duty in November 2024. After the closing of the National People’s Congress in March 2025, He Weidong suddenly disappeared. It wasn’t until October last year that He Weidong and others were collectively removed from their positions.
Du Zheng’s article also mentioned that the Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission, Zhang Shengmin, had been a fence-sitter from the beginning and was sought after by both Xi and Zhang Youxia. When Xi Jinping and He Weidong wanted to investigate corruption in equipment procurements, Zhang Shengmin was the executing authority. Similarly, when Zhang Youxia wanted to deal with He Weidong, he sought Zhang Shengmin’s help. However, when Xi Jinping ultimately decided to take down Zhang Youxia, Zhang Shengmin weighed his options again and leaned towards Xi Jinping.
In September 2025, nearly 200 procurement cases involving violations were announced by the “Military Procurement Network” of the CCP, revealing that the investigation into “corruption in procurement” in the Rocket Force actually dated back to 2016, not limited to October 2017 as previously thought.
Du Zheng believed that this indicated that the investigation reached into Zhang Youxia’s tenure. It was Zhang Shengmin who secretly arranged for the investigation into equipment corruption to bypass the time limit, allowing Xi Jinping to obtain evidence of Zhang Youxia’s corruption.
Du Zheng stated that during the Fourth Plenum in October 2025, Zhang Shengmin was promoted to Vice Chairman of the Military Commission but failed to enter the Political Bureau, as a result of the power struggle between Xi and Zhang Youxia. At that time, Zhang Youxia didn’t believe he would be taken down. After the Fourth Plenum, Zhang was the only member of the Political Bureau in the military and seemed to wield immense power within it. However, this also made him a major target of Xi’s discontent.
The article highlighted that Xi Jinping feared that by the time of the 21st National Congress of the CCP, he might be replaced by someone supported by Zhang Youxia – this was Xi Jinping’s core anxiety, reaching a tipping point of potential collapse and prompting the decisive move against Zhang Youxia.
Xi Jinping had Cai Qi intervene in arresting Zhang Youxia. Cai Qi, serving as a member of the Political Bureau, Secretary of the Central Secretariat, Director of the General Office, Vice Chairman of the Central National Security Commission overseeing national security operations, played a role in the internal struggle against Zhang Youxia through this institution.
It was rumored that He Weidong and Miao Hua, in their scheme against Zhang Youxia, helped Xi establish a privately controlled military force independent of the regular military system in Hebei. After He Weidong’s downfall, this force fell into the hands of Cai Qi, a member of the Fujian clique. Xi Jinping used this force to arrest Zhang Youxia.
However, Du Zheng believed that with Zhang Youxia’s fall, Xi Jinping also faced a new crisis. Firstly, the military personnel situation became a mess, making Xi lack trustworthy individuals, including Zhang Shengmin remaining in the Military Commission, a fence-sitter and potentially dangerous figure. Secondly, there was growing discontent and resentment within the military, potentially leading to mutiny during wartime. Thirdly, the one who truly held political power within the Party and the military was Cai Qi, as Zhang Youxia was merely a military figure, making Cai Qi more formidable.
Previously, the former Shanghai entrepreneur Hu Li had also revealed to Dajiyuan that Cai Qi played a crucial role in the case of Zhang Youxia. According to a source, Cai Qi personally coordinated the investigation and handling of Zhang Youxia.
Hu Li also posted on X, stating: “Zhang Youxia’s show has ended. The next act will be played by Cai Qi, let’s see if he can take down Xi Jinping first. Otherwise, the Cai family will meet the same end. The comrades within the CCP are actually adversaries who are competing to survive.”
(Translated and adapted from the original news article)