On January 31, Vanke Corporation (Vanke) announced that it expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company of approximately 82 billion yuan (RMB), setting a record for losses among A-share listed companies this year. Industry insiders believe that Vanke’s unprecedented loss symbolizes the collapse of the traditional real estate model.
In the “2025 Performance Forecast” released on January 31, Vanke stated that it expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 82 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, compared to a loss of 49.478 billion yuan in the same period of 2024.
According to China National Radio on February 2, Vanke’s 82 billion yuan loss in 2025 marks the highest cumulative loss of 131.48 billion yuan for two consecutive years among A-share real estate developers, surpassing the current total market value of the company significantly.
Vanke explained the four main reasons for the loss in the “2025 Performance Forecast”: “Significant decrease in settlement scale of real estate development projects, with gross profit margins still at low levels.” Additionally, “increased business risk exposure, new provisions for credit impairment and asset impairment. Losses from certain operating businesses after depreciation and amortization, as well as losses from certain non-core financial investments. Prices of certain bulk asset transactions and equity transactions are below book value.”
As a leading company in the Chinese real estate industry, the enormous loss of Vanke has been seen by industry experts as a representative example of the profound adjustment period for the real estate sector. Tian Lihui, Dean of the Nankai Institute of Financial Development, stated to China National Radio’s Finance and Economics that Vanke’s 82 billion yuan projected loss signifies the collapse of the old model in the real estate industry. Yan Yuejin, Vice President of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, also believes that this event carries a significant lesson, reflecting the existing risks in real estate enterprises.
Renowned expert in financial and tax audits, Liu Zhigeng, stated that the massive loss of Vanke is a direct result of strategic misjudgment and wrong timing in the industry cycle. High-priced land acquisitions, aggressive mergers and acquisitions, and diversified sectors have burdened the company, combined with asset impairment and disposal losses, resulting in multiple pressures leading to uncontrolled losses.
Tian Lihui pointed out that Vanke, as a benchmark in the industry, facing such enormous losses, marks a watershed moment for the industry, demonstrating the unsustainability of high-leverage and high-turnover old models.
In response to the financial crisis, the major shareholder of Vanke, Shenzhen Metro Group, continuously injected funds into Vanke in 2025. China National Radio stated that by the end of the third quarter of 2025, Shenzhen Metro Group had provided over 30 billion yuan in shareholder loans to Vanke, with loan conditions superior to market levels.
As of the closing of A-shares on January 30 at 15:00 Beijing time, Vanke’s stock price was reported at 4.88 yuan per share, a decrease of 4.87%, with a total market value of 582.22 billion yuan.