The latest statistics released by the Chinese Communist Party’s Ministry of Finance yesterday, January 30th, revealed that the fiscal revenue for the whole year of 2025 decreased by 1.7%, mainly due to the slowdown in economic growth and the sluggish real estate market. This is a rare situation in nearly forty years, with China’s fiscal revenue experiencing negative growth only once before in 2020, which was due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the Ministry of Finance of the Chinese Communist Party, China’s fiscal revenue in 2025 (national general public budget revenue) was 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from 2024.
Negative growth in fiscal revenue has been rare in the more than forty years since the CCP’s so-called reform and opening up in 1978. The last time there was national-level negative growth for the whole year was only in 2020, mainly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with China’s fiscal revenue decreasing by 3.9% in 2020.
According to financial news reports, the negative growth in China’s fiscal revenue is related to multiple factors such as the slowdown in economic growth, the chill in the real estate market, the stagnation of the land market, and weak prices. National general public budget revenue consists of tax revenue and non-tax revenue, with tax revenue increasing by 0.8% in 2025 and non-tax revenue decreasing by 11.3%.
However, in 2025, real estate-related tax revenue continued to decline. According to data from the Ministry of Finance of the Chinese Communist Party, real estate-related tax revenue (including land value-added tax, deed tax, property tax, urban land use tax, and land occupation tax) decreased by approximately 4.35% in 2025 compared to the previous year.
Based on official data, China’s real estate market continued to shrink in 2025, with significant declines in development investment, new housing sales area, and sales volume. Development investment in real estate was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% from the previous year; the sales area of new commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7% year-on-year; and the sales volume of new commercial housing was 8.3937 trillion yuan, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year. The sales volume of new commercial housing in China was 18.2 trillion yuan in 2021, dropping below 10 trillion yuan in 2024, and further plummeting to 8.4 trillion yuan in 2025, almost halving from the peak period.
Government fund income is also an important source of revenue for the CCP government, mainly relying on land sales revenue. The sluggish real estate market has dragged down land prices. Data from the Ministry of Finance of the Chinese Communist Party shows that the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights decreased by 14.7% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline since 2022.
On January 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics of the CCP stated that, based on preliminary calculations, the GDP for the entire year of 2025 was 140.1879 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year at constant prices. However, there are widespread doubts about the authenticity of China’s GDP data from external sources.
The overall trend of the Chinese economy is showing signs of decline. At a recent study session for senior provincial-level officials on the Fourth Plenum, CCP leader Xi Jinping admitted that China is facing a period of “increased uncertainty and unpredictability.” Observers in Beijing believe that the CCP regime has reached a turning point.