According to a report from the data and market analysis company Kpler, Mexico has ceased its oil shipments to Cuba, coupled with the United States blocking oil supplies from Venezuela, leaving Cuba with only enough oil reserves to last 15 to 20 days.
Analysis suggests that without the restoration of oil supplies, Cuba may soon face stringent rationing measures. Currently, most regions in Cuba experience frequent power outages due to a shortage of fuel oil, which is crucial for electricity generation.
Jorge Piñón, an oil expert from the University of Texas, told the Financial Times that if more oil does not arrive in Cuba in the coming weeks, “they will be facing a major crisis.”
According to Kpler’s data, since 2026, Cuba has only recorded one oil import, which was 84,900 barrels of oil from Mexico on January 9th. This equates to just over 3,000 barrels per day (b/d), significantly lower than the average supply of 37,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Victoria Grabenwöger, an analyst at Kpler, stated, “By adding January’s oil supply to the estimated 460,000 barrels of stockpiles in Cuba, we can say Cuba’s oil supply can last for 15 to 20 days.”
Following Mexico’s final oil delivery to Cuba two days after the arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and a week later, President Trump announced that Venezuela would no longer be sending oil to Cuba.
Kpler’s report indicated that by mid-2025, Venezuela had become Cuba’s sole supplier of fuel oil, but the last shipment arrived in November of the previous year, and no supplies have been received since then.
Overall, Mexico was Cuba’s largest oil supplier last year, but constant pressure from the United States was experienced. When questioned on whether Mexico had stopped oil shipments to Cuba on Tuesday, President Claudia Sheinbaum declined to confirm, stating it was a “sovereign decision.”
On Wednesday, she denied that oil exports to Cuba had ceased but mentioned that the oil sent to Cuba was either through contracts with the state-owned Mexican oil company, Pemex, or as humanitarian aid.
From a financial standpoint, analysts believe that if Cuba is not acquiring oil from Mexico at incredibly low prices, then it might be obtaining it for free.
Energy consultant Gonzalo Monroy from Mexico City told the Financial Times, “Cuba has heavily relied on Venezuela in the past. Now, if Mexico is the last resort and is unable to export due to pressure from the US, then Cuba is facing a massive problem.”
Kpler’s data shows that in the past, Russia and Algeria also supplied oil to Cuba, but the imports from these two countries have been sporadic. Russia’s last export was in October 2025, and Algeria’s was in February 2025.
The Cuban Embassy in Mexico City has not yet commented on the situation.
Many analysts believe that Cuba’s already fragile economy, impacted by declining tourism and sugar production, could collapse further without oil.
Nicholas Watson from the consultancy firm Teneo stated, “For the Cuban regime, the economic crisis on the island is so severe that it may even threaten its existence.”
On Tuesday, Trump predicted that the Cuban regime would “soon fail,” noting, “You know, their money comes from Venezuela, their oil comes from Venezuela, but they won’t be getting those anymore.”
On Tuesday evening, supporters of the Cuban government held a demonstration. On Wednesday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel posted on social media, “The severity of the current situation and the cruel threats to Cuba will not deter us from moving forward.”