On January 15th, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that despite trade disruptions, the global economy continues to demonstrate resilience with growth showing “quite strong” performance.
The IMF will release an updated World Economic Outlook on January 19th, with Georgieva hinting that the latest outlook may once again slightly revise upward the forecasts for the global economy.
In October last year, the IMF raised its 2025 global GDP growth forecast from 3.0% in July to 3.2% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs being lower than initially expected. The global growth outlook for 2026 remains unchanged at 3.1%.
Georgieva, in an interview with Reuters, stated, “Consistent with previous assessments, the global economy has shown significant resilience, with trade disruptions not undermining global growth. While current performance is quite robust, risks are more skewed to the downside.”
Georgieva pointed out that current risks are primarily concentrated on geopolitical tensions and rapid technological changes. She noted that the situation could improve, but if the massive resources flowing into artificial intelligence fail to deliver the expected productivity gains, the global economy could face significant financial pressure.
She said, “We are in a more unpredictable world; however, for many businesses and policymakers, it seems as if the external environment has not changed.”
Georgieva indicated that despite U.S. President Trump imposing a series of tariffs on nearly all countries last year, the U.S. economy’s performance is “quite impressive.”
She mentioned that overall tariff levels are lower than the initially threatened levels, and the U.S. accounts for only about 13% to 14% of global trade. Most other countries have so far avoided implementing retaliatory measures, helping to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariff actions.
However, she expressed concern that many countries have not built up sufficient reserves to address potential new disruptions. The IMF currently has 50 loan programs, which is relatively high historically. Nevertheless, she stated that the organization is preparing to respond to the possibility of more countries seeking financial support.