The United States government under the leadership of President Donald Trump is considering imposing sanctions on targets related to the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests within Iran. These protests, which began at the end of December last year, were sparked by soaring inflation and high cost of living. The protests have now spread across all 31 provinces in the country. The idea of taking action against Iran by the US is reasonable and has in recent days inspired further protests within Iran, leading to an expanded scale of demonstrations. Many protesters are now not only demanding lower cost of living but also the complete overthrow of the Shia mullahs regime that rules the country.
The mullah regime in Iran controls a theocratic political system, which attempts to forcefully spread Islam throughout the region. They are engaged in conflicts with Jewish Israelis as well as other faiths of Muslims, including Sunni Arabs. However, their entrenched authoritarian rule has begun to weaken. In a 12-day period last June, they suffered defeats in conflicts with Israel and the United States. During this process, their nuclear weapons program suffered significant blows due to US long-range strikes.
The response from Iran’s so-called allies has been almost nonexistent. Both Russia and China had a weak and feeble response to the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, indicating the fragile nature of “friendship” among dictators. Iran’s former allies in Syria have vanished, and their terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, have significantly weakened in wars following the 2023 Hamas attack incident. Currently, the Iranian regime is at its weakest point in decades and if democratic movements overthrow it, it would be a heavy blow not only to Iran but also to the authoritarian regimes in Russia and China.
Some protesters are calling for the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty’s rule. The Pahlavi dynasty ruled Iran from 1925 to 1979 until the Islamic Revolution brought Shia clerics into power in Iran. The eldest son of Iran’s former king, Reza Pahlavi, currently residing in the United States, has expressed willingness to return to Iran, lead the country through a transitional period, and oversee elections. On Sunday, he stated: “It is my responsibility to lead this transitional period, to ensure a safe transition, to ensure that in a fully transparent environment, the people have the opportunity to freely elect their leaders and decide their own future.”
At the root of this crisis is the prioritization of military spending and war with Israel by Iran’s clerics over water, electricity supply, and fiscal responsibilities. Coupled with sanctions from the US and its allies, this has led to a significant devaluation of Iran’s currency, the rial – the rial to US dollar exchange rate has fallen by 60% since last June.
Since the outbreak of protests on December 28, the Iranian regime has escalated its crackdown on demonstrators, including shootings, and increased use of the death penalty against dissenters. According to the human rights organization NetFreedom Pioneers, as of January 11, nearly 500 protesters have been killed, and over 10,000 people have been arrested, including more than 150 children. The clerically controlled regime has also attempted to stifle protests through other means, such as cutting off most electronic communications, including phones and the internet. Since October 7 of last year, Iran’s internet connectivity rate has been as low as 1%, far below the normal range of 90% to 100%. Even the Starlink network launched by Elon Musk’s SpaceX has experienced disruptions.
The Iranian regime has promised to address economic issues and relax strict moral laws, but these concessions are likely to be temporary. The fundamental nature of the Iranian dictatorship dictates that it will continue to sacrifice the interests of ordinary Iranian people for its extremist goals. Once the protests are quelled, the clerics will be unable to control their own extremist tendencies. They are both addicts to extremism and the worst kind of fanatics.
The Trump administration of the United States is carefully considering military actions against Iran to ensure that any strikes do not bolster support for the Iranian authoritarian regime or harm US interests. Possible targets for strikes include military, commercial, and cyber assets, among others. There are factions within the Tehran regime that might retaliate against the US. The hardline speaker of the Iranian parliament stated on January 11: “We must be clear: if Iran is attacked, the occupied territories (Israel) and all American bases and vessels will be our legitimate targets.” The speaker also threatened preemptive actions, saying: “We will not wait to respond until they take action.” Iran has previously retaliated against US troops in Iraq, but the Trump administration is unlikely to respond as the US has in the past, with peaceful gestures. Any further retaliatory actions may face a strong response from the US military.
Current options for the US include capturing Iran’s top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Khamenei lacks democratic legitimacy in power, and the IRGC is designated as a terrorist organization by the US, responsible for most serious violent incidents against Israel. Other US options include economic measures such as attacking Iran’s energy pipelines and seizing and selling Iran’s clandestine fleet of oil tankers. The US Coast Guard has employed such strategies against Venezuela and started to show effectiveness.
Regardless of the method chosen, US pressure on Iran should help to bring about a new democratic state that engages in global trade, promotes economic development for its people, and maintains regional peace. For democratic societies, this is a significant opportunity worth pursuing.