According to the prediction released by the German government’s trade agency on Monday (December 15th), China has dropped out of the top five export destinations of Germany for the first time since 2010 due to a significant decrease in exports to China. At the same time, the United States has further solidified its position as Germany’s largest export market.
The German Trade and Investment Agency (GTAI) stated that China, which was ranked fifth last year, has been surpassed by the United Kingdom and Italy, falling to seventh place among the export destinations of Germany, the largest economy in the European Union.
GTAI data shows that Germany’s exports to China are expected to decrease by 10% this year to €81 billion, reducing China’s share in Germany’s total exports to 5.2%, compared to around 7.5% in 2021.
Analysts at GTAI pointed out that the weakening domestic market in China is one of the main reasons for the decline in exports.
However, on the import side, Germany’s “de-risking” progress with China is slow. With imports from China growing by over 7%, Germany’s trade deficit with China is expected to reach a record €87 billion.
In stark contrast to the decline in exports to China, the United States remains Germany’s largest export market in 2025, with exports close to €150 billion, far exceeding those to France, the Netherlands, and Poland.
From a macro perspective, the Eurozone and the German economy are showing a certain resilience.
Data from the EU statistics office shows that industrial production in the Eurozone increased by 0.8% on a monthly basis in October, strengthening the view that the region’s economy is gaining momentum. This is thanks to tight labor markets and a rebound in consumption.
The German Ministry of Economics noted in its monthly report that despite deteriorating business expectations and consumer confidence, the German economy has started the fourth quarter on a solid footing. In October, German industrial production expanded by 1.4%, outperforming the Eurozone.
However, EU authorities also acknowledge that due to high energy costs and sluggish global exports, the potential economic growth in the Eurozone remains slightly above 1%. GTAI also predicts that Germany’s overall export growth will be only 0.6%, staying at the same level as 2022 for the third consecutive year, with prospects still remaining gloomy.
(This article referenced reporting from Reuters)