Germany’s Alternative for Germany party (AfD) is set to become the first right-wing party to win regional elections in Germany since World War II, dealing a blow to the ruling coalition.
Over the weekend, regional council elections were held in Saxony and Thuringia states in Germany. In Thuringia, AfD secured 32.8% of the vote, placing first and significantly ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which only garnered 23.6% of the vote in the state.
In the more populous state of Saxony, the CDU managed to withstand the far-right challenge, coming in first with 31.9% of the vote, but AfD closely followed with around 30.6%.
One of AfD’s leaders, Alice Weidel, remarked, “This is a historic success for us.”
Earlier this year, a new party called the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was founded by former Left Party member Sahra Wagenknecht in Thuringia and Saxony, receiving 15.8% and 11.8% of the vote respectively, making it the third-largest party in both states.
Although the BSW is on the far left of the political spectrum and vehemently opposes Nazis while supporting the constitution, it shares similar views with AfD on issues like anti-immigration, pro-Russia, and anti-aid to Ukraine.
The rise of AfD and BSW in eastern Germany has further complicated the political landscape for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition.
The governing coalition, known as the “traffic light” coalition consisting of Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the economically liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), suffered significant losses in Sunday’s election.
In Thuringia, both the Greens and FDP failed to reach the 5% threshold needed to secure seats, leading to their withdrawal from the regional council.
Although the SPD fared better, the party has been gradually losing influence in eastern Germany.
Scholz expressed concern over AfD’s results in Saxony and Thuringia, emphasizing that as an SPD legislator, he believes AfD is damaging Germany by weakening the economy, dividing society, and tarnishing the country’s reputation.
Despite AfD’s strong showing, the party is unlikely to take power as other parties that have won seats in local councils have previously refused to form coalitions with AfD.
Nonetheless, AfD may end up holding over a third of the seats in Thuringia, giving the party the ability to block certain decisions, such as the appointment of constitutional court judges in the state.
Given the complex situation, the formation of alliances could take several weeks or months, with the possibility of political coalitions with differing stances emerging.
Prior to the elections, state-level intelligence agencies in Thuringia and Saxony classified AfD’s local branches as extremist organizations intending to undermine German democracy. However, support for AfD continues to rise, indicating widespread distrust among the people in eastern Germany towards mainstream political parties and institutions.
Opinion polls show that AfD is also leading in the state of Brandenburg in the east, where elections are scheduled for September 22.
According to pre-election surveys, immigration is a major concern for voters. An opinion poll by German public television found that 81% of voters agree that “a completely different asylum and refugee policy is needed to reduce the number of people coming here.”
Just days ago, a deadly knife attack in the western German city of Solingen reignited a national debate about immigration and crime. The suspect in the case is a Syrian man suspected of being a member of ISIS, accused of killing three people and injuring several others.
Initial statistics indicate that AfD has particularly high support among young voters in these two states. In Thuringia, AfD garnered 37% of support from voters aged 18 to 24, an increase of nearly 20 percentage points compared to 2019. Meanwhile, in Saxony, AfD secured 31% support from this age group, a 14-point increase from 2019.
(References: Reuters, Associated Press, POLITICO)