Amid the Ukrainian counterattack entering Russian territory and the changing dynamics of the Russian war, the Chinese Premier and Army Commander consecutively visited Moscow to discuss economic and military cooperation, providing timely support. American experts pointed out that China does not want the Russia-Ukraine war to end as it brings many benefits to China.
On August 21st, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited Russia and met with Putin. Putin admitted that amid increasing friction with the West, China and Russia have strengthened their partnership, stating that the “large-scale joint projects and programs” in the economic and humanitarian fields will “continue for years.”
A day later, a military delegation led by Chinese Army Commander Li Qiaoming arrived in Moscow in response to an invitation from the Russian Army Chief of Staff, Oleg Salyukov. Russian media reported that military leaders of both countries discussed “military cooperation hotspots of mutual concern,” but did not disclose details.
However, recent developments indicate the strengthening of military cooperation between China and Russia. Last month, Chinese and Russian long-range bombers conducted joint patrols near Alaska for the first time. A few days ago, the two countries held their first live-fire naval exercise in the South China Sea in eight years. Chinese and Russian fighter jets are also frequently flying together in the airspace near Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea.
All of this is happening as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reaches two years and six months, with sudden shifts in the war.
On August 6th, Ukrainian forces launched an attack using tanks and other armored vehicles, entering the Russian Kursk region from multiple directions. According to Western military analysts, up to ten thousand Ukrainian soldiers were involved. This marks the first time foreign troops have entered and occupied Russian territory since Nazi Germany’s invasion and occupation of the Soviet Union during World War II.
This operation aims to relieve pressure on Eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region by forcing some Russian troops to withdraw. It also demonstrates Ukraine’s determination to resist Russian aggression. Zelensky’s advisor, Mihaiilo Podolyak, stated that attacking Russian territory could also strengthen Ukraine’s position in ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
Amid the turning point in the Russia-Ukraine war, the Chinese Premier and Army Commander suddenly visited Moscow. Carl Schuster, former Director of Operations at the Hawaii Joint Intelligence Center of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told Dajiyuan that Beijing is concerned about Ukraine’s military success in the Kursk region. Xi Jinping does not want Russia to withdraw from the war in Ukraine, thus attaching great importance to assisting Putin’s war efforts.
Schuster explained that China believes that prolonging the Russia-Ukraine war serves its interests because “it (the Russia-Ukraine war) is diverting the attention and resources of the West, especially the United States, away from Asia.”
On August 23rd, the US Department of Defense announced that the Biden administration would provide Ukraine with approximately $1.25 billion in military aid, including air defense missiles, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) ammunition, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and a range of other anti-armor missiles, anti-drone and electronic warfare systems and equipment, 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, vehicles, and other equipment. These weapons were drawn from the Pentagon’s inventory, also serving the defense of Taiwan.
In September 2022, US President Biden stated that the US military would defend Taiwan if China invaded.
Oriana Skylar Mastro, a researcher at Stanford University’s Freeman International Research Center, explained in 2022 why the US must defend Taiwan. Militarily, Taiwan is a crucial link in the first island chain of the Western Pacific. If Taiwan falls into Chinese hands, the US will face greater difficulty in defending key allies like Japan and the Philippines, while China can deploy its navy, air force, and other forces closer to the US and its territories.
In March this year, US Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral John Aquilino revealed during a House hearing that Xi Jinping instructed the military to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, aiming to achieve the capability for a forced takeover before that time.
The Russia-Ukraine war that erupted in February 2022 diverted US focus from the Asia-Pacific region to Europe, but Ukraine’s actions crossing into Russian territory have unsettled China. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Army Commander Li Qiaoming both visited Moscow.
Anders Corr, founder of Corr Analytics and publisher of the Political Risk Magazine, told Dajiyuan that China is attempting to show continued support for Russia during its challenging times.
“China (the CCP) may send troops to help Russia expel Ukrainians from Kursk, but this would be a significant escalation, and the US may reinforce its intervention in Ukraine. More likely, Beijing will increase military observers around Kursk, deliver more weapons to Russia, engage in more military activities in Asia (partly to divert US attention), and conduct more joint naval and aerial patrols with Russia in Asia and the Arctic.”
However, Corr noted that cooperation between China and Russia is transactional. “Ultimately, two dictators do not trust each other to not exploit each other’s weaknesses.”
Furthermore, China sees the Russia-Ukraine war as a classroom for modern warfare observation and a testing ground for new weapons.
Schuster stated, “The war provides a testing ground for new military tactics, operational procedures, technologies, and theories. Beijing’s goal is to keep the conflict going, learn from it, and apply lessons to the military’s operations, plans, and force structure.”
Bloomberg reported in July this year that Chinese and Russian companies are jointly developing an attack drone similar to the Iranian Shahed model, intending to use it on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Schuster mentioned that China assisting Russia in developing drones has its own rationale. “It is closely watching this war and hopes to draw two very important tactical and operational lessons from the conflict – firstly, how best to use drones in operations and tactics, and secondly, how to defend against drone attacks.”
Schuster also indicated: “Russia’s struggles in the war and Western actions against Russia, particularly economic sanctions, are pushing the Russian economy more towards China.”