In 2026, the traditional “Year of the Red Horse” is approaching in China, and there are widespread speculations about potential changes in political leadership during this year. In recent years, there have been incidents in the Chinese Communist Party involving the banning of certain books and charges of “maliciously criticizing the central government,” which some see as evidence of internal discord and a weakening of Xi Jinping’s authority. Following the downfall of Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia from the Central Military Commission, there has been turbulence in the political landscape of Beijing. It has been reported that various voices criticizing Xi Jinping are circulating clandestinely within the Beijing political circles.
Recently, Chinese-Australian scholar Yuan Hongbing, in an interview with “Watch China,” cited insider information within the Communist Party system, stating that following the arrests of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, the Xi Jinping administration once again issued threats against “maliciously criticizing the central government.” However, it seems that the Beijing officials are no longer heeding such warnings. Negative assessments of Xi Jinping have been increasingly circulating within the Beijing political atmosphere.
Some have commented that while being extremely brutal towards their own people in domestic matters, when facing external adversaries, all they do is engage in verbal warfare with no real actions to show. The potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait has not erupted yet, but they have already eliminated their top generals within the military, aiding Trump in weakening the military strength of the CCP. Some even suggest that Xi Jinping lacks the courage to engage in direct conflict with Taiwan and the United States. With China holding trillions of dollars in U.S. debt, seen as the warranty handed over by Xi Jinping to Trump.
Others have discussed the arrest of Maduro by Trump as a display of his bold and decisive leadership, contrasting it with Xi Jinping’s diplomatic approach resembling the character from the Chinese classic “Water Margin.” The “wolf warrior” diplomats from Xi’s camp threatening to “behead the dirty head of Gao Shi Zao” and “turn all of Japan into a battlefield,” have only resorted to rhetoric without any actual actions to intimidate Japan. Gao Shi Zao, on the other hand, has gained popularity and support among the Japanese populace.
It is rumored that Xi Jinping values power greatly, displaying fierce aggression internally but showing indecisiveness externally, avoiding direct confrontation with Trump. There are whispers suggesting that Xi Jinping’s military maneuvers and aggressive rhetoric around Taiwan have turned into a free acrobatics show, providing entertainment for the people of Taiwan after their meals.
Yuan Hongbing mentioned that the whispers within the Beijing political circles serve as a microscope into the psychological state of Communist Party officials, indicating the current turmoil and dissent within the Communist Party officials, likened to the sea before a storm. The perception of Xi Jinping as merely a weak and cowardly figure is gaining momentum. The officials within the Communist Party, who usually bow under the pressure of power, are also equipped with teeth. Once they realize that the perceived strongman is actually a ruthless paper tiger, the collective backlash against Xi Jinping might become a likely scenario.
An increasing number of top Communist Party officials have been accused of “maliciously criticizing the central government.”
On February 6th this year, the CCP’s Central disciplinary Commission simultaneously announced the expulsion of 4 senior officials from the Party, removing them from public office and referring them to the judicial system. Among them, Ni Qiang, former Secretary-General of the Hainan Provincial Committee, was accused of “maliciously criticizing the central government’s major policies.”
Commentator Cai Shunkun mentioned that Ni Qiang was sent to judicial authorities for criticizing Xi Jinping, implying that criticizing the central government is essentially criticizing Xi Jinping.
The so-called “Hainan Free Trade Port,” personally orchestrated by Xi Jinping, officially commenced with the island-wide lockdown on December 18, 2025. There has been online speculation that Ni Qiang, after speaking candidly while intoxicated, referring to the Hainan Free Trade Port as a doomed project akin to the Xiong’an project. Unfortunately, this conversation was recorded and forwarded to the provincial disciplinary committee, leading to Ni Qiang’s dismissal.
Furthermore, rumors resurfaced recently about the arrest of Jilin Province’s former Secretary, Jing Junhai, who attempted to dispel rumors after allegedly being detained in November last year.
On February 15th, activist Sheng Xue revealed that Jing Junhai had been taken in for questioning by relevant authorities. It was reported that his recent discreet expressions of discontent towards Xi Jinping’s policies led to allegations of “political disloyalty” and “maliciously criticizing the central government.” However, there has been no official confirmation regarding the downfall of Jing Junhai.
Since the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, many members of the Central Committee personally chosen by Xi Jinping have fallen from grace.
Independent commentator Du Zheng previously wrote for Taiwanese media “Up Report,” stating that Xi Jinping’s hand-picked team has been shattered in internal conflicts, with some managing to survive left in a sorry state, engaging in internal power struggles, creating a doomsday scenario in the political landscape of Zhongnanhai.
Du Zheng noted that the increasing number of officials accused of reading banned political books indicates existing discord within the Chinese Communist Party. Even if Xi Jinping hasn’t been ousted yet, his authority within the Party and the entire country has significantly weakened. The exaggerated displays of loyalty towards Xi Jinping in regional areas are orchestrated by local officials, as the dictator can only receive false loyalty.