In the Japanese House of Representatives election held on Sunday, February 8th, Prime Minister Sanae Takichi led the Liberal Democratic Party to not only achieve an “overwhelming” victory but also set the highest post-war record for a single party in terms of seats won in the election. Analysts suggest that it was actually the Chinese Communist Party’s suppression of Takichi that unexpectedly led to this result. Prior to the election, the CCP launched a three-month long campaign of criticism and pressure against Takichi, aiming to use negative public opinion to force her out of office.
According to Nikkei Asia, experts believe that the CCP’s strategy backfired, inadvertently aiding the Liberal Democratic Party to secure more seats in Sunday’s election, giving them a “supermajority” of over two-thirds in the Lower House. This outcome may open the door for Japan to adopt a tougher defense stance. Meanwhile, political parties leaning towards a more moderate position towards China saw a significant weakening in their power in the election.
Tomoko Ako, a professor of Chinese affairs at the University of Tokyo, summarized the election results on Monday as, “Those who feel threatened by China (CCP) have won an overwhelming majority.”
Japan-China relations sharply deteriorated in November last year. At that time, Takichi stated that if the CCP were to militarily attack Taiwan, it would pose a “threat to Japan’s survival” and implied that Japan might have to take military action in response. The CCP was deeply angered by this and took a series of economic retaliatory measures against Japan, including restricting Chinese tourists from traveling to Japan, halting the resumption of imports of Japanese marine products, and banning the export of dual-use items such as rare earth minerals to Japan, attempting to pressurize Takichi domestically.
Furthermore, the CCP manipulated official media through its propaganda department to frequently report negative comments about Takichi, trying to influence public opinion in Japan. But the CCP miscalculated, as reported by Nikkei, those pressure tactics actually boosted Takichi’s domestic support and may have at least partially contributed to her victory in Sunday’s election.
Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, stated on the social media platform X that the “hidden issue” of Sunday’s House of Representatives election was China. The outspoken retired diplomat added, “Confronted with China’s provocative actions and waves of economic coercion, should Japan submit or stand tall? The Japanese people have clearly chosen the latter.”
“Now is the time for Prime Minister Takichi and the coalition government to engage in strong diplomacy, strengthen defense, and intelligence work,” he said.
According to Reuters, David Boling, head of the Asia Group providing geopolitical risk information to businesses, said, “Beijing will not welcome Takichi’s victory.”
“The reality facing China (CCP) now is that Takichi’s position is firmly established – and their efforts to isolate her have completely failed,” Boling said.
The Japanese House of Representatives has 465 seats, and the Liberal Democratic Party alone won 316 seats, accounting for over two-thirds of the total seats, a historic increase from the pre-election 198 seats. Symbolically, for the first time since the electoral reform in 1996, the Liberal Democratic Party won all four constituencies in Okinawa, which has traditionally been seen as an opposition stronghold. Since the dispute between Beijing and Takichi over “Taiwan’s situation,” the CCP has repeatedly raised the old issue of sovereignty over Okinawa, implying that the status of these islands is still undecided.
Nikkei noted that a single party obtaining a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives is unprecedented since World War II, surpassing the Democratic Party’s record of 308 seats and 64.2% seat share when they took power from the Liberal Democratic Party in 2009. The Liberal Democratic Party’s previous record was 304 seats in 1986.
The two-thirds “supermajority” in the Japanese parliament is a crucial number as it is the threshold for initiating constitutional amendments. The Liberal Democratic Party’s advantage in the Lower House gives Takichi the ability to push for constitutional reforms, as she has long been advocating for amending the pacifist constitution.
The Japan Restoration Association, in a coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party, won 36 seats, giving Takichi’s ruling alliance over three-fourths of the seats in the Lower House.
The suppression of Takichi by the CCP in this election also led to another trend, where parties friendly to Beijing generally lost seats while parties taking a tough stance against the CCP emerged as winners.
The Constitutional Reform Alliance (CRA) lost 70% of its seats. The CRA was a new party formed by the hasty merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Komeito Party. Historically, both the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Komeito Party have had relatively friendly relations with Beijing, especially the Komeito Party.
The Japan Communist Party and the Reiwa Shinsengumi, which held 8 seats each before the elections, also suffered heavy losses. These two parties ended up with only 4 and 1 seat, respectively, in the Sunday election.
On the other hand, the nationalist, tough-on-China party Sanseito jumped from 2 seats to 15 seats.
Professor Tomoko Ako of the University of Tokyo suggested that the CCP may have to prepare for a comprehensive discussion in Japan on enhancing military capabilities (which may require constitutional amendments) and may even prompt Japan to reconsider its non-nuclear weapon policy.
Takichi’s overwhelming victory has put CCP leader Xi Jinping in an awkward position. Bloomberg reported that Xi Jinping must decide whether to engage with the most popular post-war leader of Japan or continue a cold war stance with the most important ally in Asia, the United States.
Several Japanese officials, who preferred to remain anonymous, told Bloomberg that they hope the CCP ultimately has no choice but to pursue re-engagement, as Takichi enjoys strong public support in Japan, meaning her government is likely to continue in power in the coming years.