Welcome to the December 18th Wednesday edition of “News Insight.” In this episode, we have invited senior political and economic commentator Wu Jialong, executive director of the Indo-Pacific strategic think tank, Akio Yaito, and host Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: Disaster! Southeast Asia Cutting Red Supply Chain, China Struggling in Major Changes! Trump Sending Strong Signals Through Abe’s Wife! International Funds Moving Away from China Towards the US! Suspicion and Distrust, Is Beijing’s Regime Unstable? Red Infiltration in Taiwan Goes Unnoticed?
After the US election, Trump held his first press conference on the 16th, paying tribute to Shinzo Abe, and mentioning a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shizo Abe. Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son announced an investment of $100 billion in the US, what did he see? Is Trump’s statement about the US and China solving many issues a sign of softening or an indication of extreme pressure?
The Chinese leader admitted rare internal party contradictions and emphasized the need to look inward. The party’s military institutions emphasized “collective leadership”, with reports of a Public Security Ministry directive on “eight things that should not happen”. What is happening in Zhongnanhai?
China’s economic data for November shows an economy losing steam, possibly entering a long-term recession with currency tightening. The effects of Trump’s tariffs are leading Southeast Asian countries to sever ties with the red supply chain. Will China’s “Made in China 2025” plan accelerate its crisis?
Warren Buffet previously made significant investments in Japan’s five major trading companies. Major tech companies are meeting with Trump. Following the US election, Trump’s first press conference was held on the 16th at the Mar-a-Lago estate. In a surprising announcement, SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son and Trump revealed plans to invest $100 billion in the US, creating 100,000 jobs focusing on AI and emerging technology, aiming to complete before Trump leaves office in 2029. Trump joked about doubling the investment to $200 billion, to which Son replied, “I will strive to achieve this goal.”
▶ Mr. Wu Jialong, how do you interpret SoftBank’s investment commitment? Son emphasizes that Trump will bring peace, what do you think Son sees in the future to make such a decision?
After winning the election, Trump has not yet met with Japanese Prime Minister Shizo Abe, with some changes in Japan and South Korea’s political landscape. On the 16th at Mar-a-Lago, Trump was asked about the possibility of meeting Shizo Abe, to which he expressed interest and willingness to meet. When asked if the meeting would occur before the inauguration, he stated it would depend on the Japanese side’s wishes.
Trump expressed great respect for Japan’s Prime Minister, mentioning Shinzo Abe and his wife Akie Abe, through whom he gifted something to Shizo Abe.
Following the press conference, Trump announced on social media his nomination of former Ambassador to Portugal George Glass as the new Ambassador to Japan. Another hardliner against China, both former and current Ambassadors to Japan have praised this nomination.
▶ Mr. Akio Yaito, the US-Japan alliance is a key cornerstone of the Indo-Pacific strategy. How do you see Trump 2.0’s direction through the US-Japan relationship?
China’s economic data for November revealed disappointing consumer data, declining real estate figures, significant drops in foreign investments, weak private investments, and 26 consecutive months of falling PPI, indicating that China’s economy is losing momentum.
The Wall Street Journal reports that if China fails to take decisive measures to halt the downward spiral of deflation, the trend will solidify, becoming difficult to reverse and leading China into a long-term decline. Goldman Sachs anticipates that by 2025, China will initiate a “self-reliance” mode, significantly slowing economic growth.
▶ Mr. Wu Jialong, how do you observe China’s economic trajectory?
Many believe that major events are unfolding in China’s top leadership. There are online petitions demanding the resignation of the Chinese party leader Xi Jinping, citing 28 instances of inaction during Xi’s tenure.
The Communist Party’s journal ‘Seeking Truth’ published a speech by Xi Jinping in January titled “Deepening the Party’s Self-Revolution,” mentioning that within the party, various “contradictions and issues” are inevitable and must be resolved with the courage to eliminate negative influences. Xi also revealed concerns about the party’s collapse, discussing how to successfully break the historical cycle of rise and fall, mentioning “self-revolution” at least 30 times.
The military’s newspaper ‘PLA Daily’ published an article emphasizing “upholding collective leadership”, seemingly contradicting Xi’s long-standing emphasis on the “Chairman responsibility system”.
▶ Mr. Akio Yaito, how do you observe the political trends within the Chinese Communist Party?
The Wall Street Journal reports that some businesses are lobbying post-election to soften or change Trump’s tariff plans, but Trump remains unfazed. Senator Cotton recently stated at a Wall Street Journal CEO Council summit that Trump may be open to negotiations with Canada and Mexico regarding tariffs and may ultimately compromise. However, China requires a different approach, as Trump will take a tougher stance due to China posing economic and national security threats to the US.
Cotton warned lobbyists not to oppose revoking China’s Most Favored Nation trade status, stating, “If you represent China (the CCP), you should be prepared to take a beating.”
Mexico is distancing itself from the red supply chain and illegal Chinese products. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia has advised Chinese companies not to invest if it’s to avoid US tariffs. Vietnam benefited greatly from the US-China trade war 1.0, and now there are reports that Trump plans to close this loophole.
China recently launched an antitrust probe against US chipmaker Nvidia, what is the calculation behind this?
Taiwan anti-Communist internet celebrity Ba Jiong released a documentary disclosing how some Taiwanese internet personalities were manipulated by the CCP to influence public opinion in Taiwan. How does the CCP buy off Taiwanese influencers to impact public opinion in Taiwan?
Additionally, there have been reports in the UK detailing potential infiltration of the royal family by Chinese businessmen, with a close friend of a prince accused of possibly being a spy in service of the CCP. More cases exposing similar CCP influence operations are emerging, including in the US.
▶ Mr. Akio Yaito, how do you observe the CCP’s united front tactics?
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