Welcome to the November 11th edition of “News Insight,” where we unravel the news. In this episode, our special guest is Wang Guochen, Assistant Research Fellow at the Chinese Academy of Economic Studies, hosted by Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: Did the Chinese Communist Party underestimate Trump’s successful comeback? Is a confrontation expected in 2025? What is the CCP trying to save with its ten trillion yuan printing spree? Is Trump’s tariff war indiscriminately targeting Europe for retaliation? How should Taiwan view Trump’s policies – not pessimistic, but also not overly optimistic!
Trump recently released his 47th presidential agenda, promising to “Make America Great Again.” How will this reshape the economic and trade structure of the United States? With rumors of a Trump Trade War 2.0 targeting China with 60% tariffs under the leadership of Lighthizer, can China respond effectively? Reports suggest China is considering preferential measures, tariff reductions, and other incentives to woo America’s allies in Europe and Asia. How will US-China trade war 2.0 impact Europe, Asia, and Taiwan? And how will different countries respond?
Trump’s Agenda 47 outlines 20 core commitments to “Make America Great Again.”
Observer Wang Guochen analyzes how Trump’s vision will impact the economic structure of the United States.
With Trump’s return to the White House, speculations about “Trade War 2.0” intensifying against China are rife, with plans to reappoint Lighthizer as a trade representative. Trump’s advisors are reportedly discussing a broad tax plan, including tariff legislation. Trump has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on China. Many economists believe that Trump may increase tariffs against China by 10-20%, given the previous tariff escalation during the 2018-2020 trade war.
According to reports, Beijing’s options in response to Trump’s tariffs may be limited this time, with risks of excessive devaluation of the yuan, capital flight, and accusations of currency manipulation. China is contemplating measures like reducing tariffs, visa waivers, increased Chinese investment, and other incentives for US allies in Europe and Asia.
Observer Wang Guochen speculates on how Trump’s Trade War 2.0 may reshape US-China economic and trade relations, the impact of tariffs on China, and China’s strategy of lowering tariffs to attract US allies in Europe and Asia.
The NPC Standing Committee announces plans for significant economic stimulus following the US election. However, Trump’s victory has caused global stock markets to rise, while China and Hong Kong’s markets fall, and the yuan’s exchange rate plunges. China’s plan to issue 6 trillion yuan in bonds to increase local governments’ debt ceilings has raised doubts about its effectiveness. Wang Guochen interprets whether China’s debt issuance after Trump’s victory signals a lack of options or strategic planning.
Trump and Biden administrations have been constructing a security network against China in the Indo-Pacific region, spanning security, economic, and trade fronts. How will Trump’s return to confront China affect these structures? Will Trump continue the alliances established during the Biden era? How will Taiwan’s economic and trade competitiveness change if Trump leans toward bilateral negotiations with countries, leaving Taiwan out of multilateral mechanisms?
How will Trump’s tariffs and Trade War 2.0 impact Europe? The European Council Chair has warned of the risk of EU-China trade disputes escalating into a full-scale trade war. The EU Ambassador to China emphasizes the EU’s preference for fair and transparent competition with China but criticizes the lack of progress in negotiations over the years. How will Trump’s tariffs and Trade War 2.0 affect European allies? Will the EU join the US in the joint front against China’s tariffs? Is Europe moving away from risks and seeking to disengage from China?
Trump’s election victory has accelerated the exodus of foreign companies, investments, and even Chinese businesses from China. Southeast Asian countries benefit from this trend, but concerns remain about future US tariffs and uncertainties. China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are actively engaging in the Southeast Asian market and diplomacy.
Observer Wang Guochen examines how Trump’s trade war and tariffs against China will impact Southeast Asia and Taiwan.
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