On August 16th, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang presided over a State Council meeting. At the meeting, the current Minister of National Defense, Dong Jun, who is not a deputy national level official, had to sit below the main podium. The status of the Minister of National Defense in the Chinese Communist Party was lowered, and Dong Jun’s current situation is seen as awkward.
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on August 16th, Li Keqiang presided over the fifth full meeting of the State Council.
The news footage broadcasted on CCTV showed Li Keqiang and several vice premiers and state councilors sitting on the main podium, while General Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense of the CCP Navy, sat below the podium.
Since the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party, the Minister of National Defense has always been at the deputy national level or higher, concurrently serving as a member of the State Council and the Central Military Commission, and even the Vice Chairman of the CCP Central Committee and Vice Chairman of the Military Commission. However, Dong Jun has not been able to enter the Military Commission or become a state councilor since taking office, thus not being able to sit on the main podium during the meeting.
After the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party ended last month, some thought Dong Jun might enter the Central Military Commission and subsequently be appointed as a state councilor by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. However, there were no relevant personnel adjustments at the Third Plenary Session.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense held a reception on July 31st at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to celebrate the 97th anniversary of the founding of the army. The opening paragraph of the press release stated, “Member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of the Joint Staff of the Military Commission, Liu Zhenli, Member of the Central Military Commission and Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission, Miao Hua, and Member of the Central Military Commission and Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission Zhang Shengmin attended the reception. Minister of National Defense Dong Jun attended and delivered a speech.” The main text only mentioned “Dong Jun’s speech”, followed by the content of his speech.
Comparing the Xinhua News Agency report on July 31st, 2023, it was stated, “Member of the Central Military Commission, State Councilor, and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu delivered a speech. Member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of the Joint Staff of the Military Commission, Liu Zhenli, Member of the Central Military Commission and Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission, Miao Hua, and Member of the Central Military Commission and Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission Zhang Shengmin attended the reception.” The main text began with “Li Shangfu, on behalf of the Party Central Committee, the State Council, and the Central Military Commission.”
Analyst Du Zheng wrote in “Shanghai Report” that in this comparison, just a month before his downfall, Li Shangfu enjoyed quite a bit of glory. However, now Dong Jun’s position is quite awkward.
Du Zheng believes that this may be due to the problems faced by the last two ministers of National Defense, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, which made Xi Jinping apprehensive. He wants to lower the status of the Ministry of National Defense, demonstrated by Dong Jun’s inability to be promoted to the deputy national level.
Defense One published an article this month by political scientist Shanshan Mei from the RAND Corporation and retired military intelligence officer Dennis Blasko from the US Army, also suggesting that the position of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense has been downgraded. The analysis in the article suggests that excluding Defense Minister Dong Jun from key decision-making bodies raises questions about his interactions with Xi Jinping and his influence within the CCP political system, potentially complicating US-China military relations.
According to Mei and Blasko’s observations, senior Chinese leaders do not seem eager to promote Dong Jun nor engage in substantive military dialogue with the United States.
The article mentioned that the unexpected marginalization of Dong Jun may indicate that Chinese military diplomacy, especially involving military contacts with the US, remains a lower priority on Beijing’s agenda.