According to the latest official data from the Chinese Communist Party, accumulated investment in the first seven months of this year increased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is lower than the lower limit of the forecast range.
As announced by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Chinese Communist Party on August 15th, fixed asset investment in the country from January to July reached 28.7611 trillion yuan, increasing by 3.6% compared to the same period last year. The growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous six months. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment in the country grew by 8.0%, slowing down by 0.5 percentage points. Private fixed asset investment totaled 14.7139 trillion yuan, remaining the same as the same period last year.
According to calculations by Caixin, the year-on-year investment growth rate in July decreased by 1.7 percentage points, dropping to 1.9%.
From a month-on-month perspective, fixed asset investment in July decreased by 0.17 percentage points, lower than the 0.73 percentage points in June, indicating a slowdown in investment in July.
Caixin stated that the investment growth rate in the first seven months was lower than market expectations.
A recent survey by the media of 13 domestic and foreign institutions showed that economists had an average prediction of 3.9% for the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to July. The forecast range was from 3.7% to 4.2%, indicating that actual investment was below the lower limit of the forecast range.
It is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate of private investment from January to July was 0, reaching the lowest level within this year.
Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, estimated that private investment in the month decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, the lowest since September 2023. Due to factors such as weak effective demand, there is a lack of willingness to continue expanding investments in non-real estate sectors.
In addition, recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Chinese Communist Party and the General Administration of Customs showed that the growth rate of supply and demand slowed down in July.
In July, industrial value-added increased by 5.1% year-on-year, lower by 0.2% compared to the previous period; driven by summer consumption, the service industry production index increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly up by 0.1%; the total retail sales of consumer goods rose to 2.7% but still relatively low; accumulated growth rate of fixed asset investment slowed down to 3.6%, and exports dropped to 7.0%, all below market expectations.
CICC believes that the economic data in July remains weak. Excluding temporary factors such as weather, the short-term economic momentum may still be at a low point. The weighted average year-on-year growth rate on the production side basically remained the same as in June, while the overall demand-side data was relatively weak, with external demand still outperforming domestic demand.
Zhang Heng, Chief Economist of Guangfa Securities, believes that the overall pace of economic operation this year may be similar to last year. The economic and financial data in July overall were weak, and the pressure to stabilize growth in the second half of the year has further increased. To achieve the annual economic growth target, macroeconomic policies need to continue to exert efforts more forcefully.