Recently, various rumors about the alleged breakdown of the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and North Korea, which is said to be “as close as lips and teeth,” have been circulating widely online. During the commemoration of the 71st anniversary of the Korean War armistice held in Pyongyang last month, Chinese personnel were absent. Additionally, on the occasion of the 63rd anniversary of the signing of the “China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance,” both sides unusually did not issue commemorative articles. Analysts widely believe that this indicates Pyongyang leaning towards Moscow, and the CCP might be deliberately distancing itself from North Korea and Russia.
On July 27, during the commemoration of the 71st anniversary of the Korean War armistice, North Korea invited ambassadors from various countries stationed in Pyongyang, such as Russia, Cuba, and Vietnam, but notably absent was the Chinese Ambassador Wang Yajun.
In response, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Lin Jian, dismissed foreign media reports as baseless rumors, asserting that the CCP’s consistent position of valuing and developing friendly relations with North Korea remains unchanged. Senior editor and columnist at Dajiyuan, Shishan, commented, stating that in the true relationship between the CCP and North Korea, North Korea is merely a tool in the CCP’s hands used to counter the United States and the Western world, while North Korea has always tried to break free from CCP’s control. With the deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea, this trend becomes even more apparent.
According to a report from the Japanese edition of the South Korean newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, on July 11, the Chinese Ambassador to North Korea, Wang Yajun, hosted a banquet to commemorate the 63rd anniversary of the signing of the “China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance.” However, high-ranking officials from Pyongyang did not attend, with only Kim Seong-chan, President of Kim Il-sung University, and representatives of other officials present. Last year, it was Vice Chairman Kang Run-shik of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly who led the delegation.
The downgrade in the attendees of the banquet is considered by South Korean experts as a deliberate move by North Korea to distance itself from China. Furthermore, the two countries also unusually did not issue articles or congratulatory messages on this commemorative day.
Interestingly, the above-mentioned reports are only found in the Japanese edition of Chosun Ilbo, not in the Chinese or English editions. Independent contributor Zhuge Mingyang believes that some South Korean politicians and media are somewhat “anti-communist,” fearing that China may exert influence on their economy and supply chains. The approach taken by Chosun Ilbo may be a tentative move, and if the CCP does not react strongly, the next step might involve discussing CCP-North Korea relations in the Chinese and English editions.
According to an exclusive report from Chosun Ilbo, after Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June and the signing of the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty,” Kim Jong-un instructed North Korean diplomats in Beijing to “not read China’s expressions.” Simultaneously, North Korea has intensified control over the Chinese population within the country, restricting their movements and limiting interactions with local residents.
As reported by Yonhap News Agency on July 9, China has repeatedly demanded that North Korea recall all its laborers in China. Although North Korea had planned to repatriate these individuals in batches, China insisted on the return of all its visa-holding personnel in China once their visas expire.
In March of this year, the United Nations Security Council’s sanctions committee on North Korea released a report stating that there are around 100,000 North Korean laborers working overseas, earning the country between 750 million to 1.1 billion US dollars in foreign exchange annually.
However, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry denied this news during a press conference on July 9, affirming that China and North Korea “have always maintained a traditional friendship and cooperative relationship.”
In May 2018, during Kim Jong-un’s visit to China, footprints left by him and Xi Jinping during a stroll on the beach in Dalian’s Bangchuidao were cast into “bronze footprints” by the Chinese side as a symbol of “China-North Korea friendship.” As reported by the Chinese edition of Chosun Ilbo, these “bronze footprints” suddenly disappeared in June this year as the location was covered with black asphalt.
Meanwhile, a restaurant near the beach in Dalian, Bangchuidao, named the “No. 7 Angle Exhibition Room,” was also closed. This exhibition room displayed photos of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il’s visits to Bangchuidao, with Kim Jong-un having also visited the site.
“It is noteworthy that since Xi Jinping came to power, the relationship between the CCP and North Korea has not been very smooth,” Shishan said. “After Xi Jinping assumed the leadership of the CCP in 2012, he first visited Seoul in July 2014 instead of Pyongyang. In 2016, the relationship between the two countries quickly deteriorated due to South Korea’s decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system, leading to Kim Jong-un’s visit to China in 2018 and Xi Jinping’s first visit to Pyongyang in June 2019. Given the tense relations between China and the United States, the meeting between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un was a way for the CCP to gain more leverage.”
Shishan further mentioned that an expert from a top Chinese think tank privately revealed to him that China uses North Korea as a means to balance the United States and Western societies, but China does not want North Korea to possess nuclear weapons. If North Korea acquires nuclear weapons, US nuclear weapons could come in, and possibly South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan might also seek nuclear arms. This strategic posture would greatly impact China negatively. Therefore, China has consistently advocated for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. China opposes North Korea having nuclear weapons, but if North Korea completely discards its nuclear program, China would lose its leverage.
“For China, the best scenario would be for North Korea to not possess nuclear weapons but to remain in the development phase,” he added. “This way, North Korea acts as a bargaining chip.”
This year marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea. During National People’s Congress Chairman Zhao Leji’s visit to Pyongyang in April, his failure to bring substantial gifts reportedly displeased Kim Jong-un.
Furthermore, China has strengthened control over trade with North Korea by imposing tariffs. China accounts for over 90% of North Korea’s trade, making this measure an impactful hit that North Korea cannot avoid.
Putin’s state visit to North Korea on June 19, where the two countries signed the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty,” was touted by North Korean media as confirming their “indestructible enduring friendship and unity.”
Shishan mentioned that in 1961, North Korea had signed a mutual defense treaty with the former Soviet Union, which became null with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the late 1990s. The treaty signed between Pyongyang and Moscow is considered to be the “first defensive alliance of the post-Soviet era,” marking the possibility of North Korea becoming the “Belarus of East Asia.”
“The so-called ‘as close as lips and teeth’ relationship between the CCP and North Korea is actually very fragile,” Shishan explained. “North Korea is well aware that China regards it as a tool for its own advantage. Therefore, whenever circumstances change, North Korea seeks to break free from China’s control. With the establishment of a strategic partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow, its ties with China will naturally deteriorate.”
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed in his memoir, “Never Back Down: Fighting for the America I Love” that during his visit to Pyongyang in March 2018 as the CIA Director and a special envoy for President Trump, he met with Kim Jong-un. In his efforts to convince Kim Jong-un to abandon nuclear weapons and to assure him that even without them, China would not pose a threat, Pompeo told him that China often tells the US that Kim Jong-un would be delighted if American troops withdrew from South Korea.
In response, Kim Jong-un slammed the table, exclaiming, “The Chinese are lying!” Pompeo stated that Kim Jong-un “needed the protection of American forces in Korea to shield him from Chinese encroachments; however, China aims to have American forces withdrawn so that it can handle the peninsula just like it does with Tibet and Xinjiang.”