The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command announced on Thursday (23rd) the commencement of the “Joint Sword-2024A” military exercises in the sea and airspace surrounding Taiwan. Analysts believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was evidently prepared for this. Prior to this, the CCP leader issued a secret order stating that “the battlefield is in the Legislative Yuan,” in response to recent chaos in the Taiwan legislature.
Experts analyzed that the CCP, through cognitive warfare, information warfare, psychological operations, and united front tactics, aimed to disrupt the Taiwan legislature, undermine Taiwan’s resistance will, and create conditions for launching a war across the Taiwan Strait. However, it may not go as planned.
The Eastern Theater Command announced that on Thursday at 7:45 a.m., the joint training exercises began in the northern, southern, and eastern regions of the Taiwan island, as well as around Kinmen Island, Matsu Islands, Wuchiu Island, and Dongyin Island.
Colonel Li Xihai, the spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command, stated that from May 23rd to 24th, the Eastern Theater Command organized the joint “Joint Sword-2024A” exercise involving land, naval, air, and missile units around Taiwan, focusing on joint air and sea alert responses, joint seizure of battlefield control, and precision strikes on key targets.
In response, the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense expressed regret for such irrational provocations that disrupt regional peace and stability. The ministry emphasized that facing repeated provocations by the Chinese military, the armed forces are on high alert, maintaining a strong will of “prepare for war but not seek war, respond to war when necessary,” with the capability, determination, and confidence to ensure national security.
Earlier on Monday (May 20th), Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party President Lai Ching-te and Vice President Shiao Mei completed the presidential handover ceremony.
Regarding the CCP’s military exercises around Taiwan, independent media host Tang Jingyuan analyzed that this was undoubtedly a pre-planned move, serving as a gesture to challenge Lai Ching-te’s assumption of office.
“This is the CCP’s primary goal. Through military exercises, they aim to show their strength, exert pressure on Lai Ching-te, and influence the future domestic and foreign policies of the administration. Essentially, they want to instill a sense of concern within the Lai Ching-te government. This is the CCP’s consistent way of using military intimidation to influence Taiwan’s domestic and foreign policy direction.”
The second goal, according to Tang Jingyuan, is for the CCP to utilize the performance of the military exercises as a form of political theater to engage domestic supporters and energize their base.
“Because during the inauguration on
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, by not mentioning the ‘1992 Consensus,’ the CCP felt that this was a humiliation. It shows that Lai Ching-te does not yield to the CCP’s demands and is unafraid of their military and non-military threats. Through these displays of strength, they aim to bolster their image and project a more aggressive stance.”
“In the public discourse, they aim to justify their actions, further brainwash the populace, and maintain a high-pressure stance on so-called pro-Taiwan independence forces.”
The third goal, Tang Jingyuan stated, is for the CCP to use the military exercises in conjunction with the internal turmoil in Taiwan’s legislature to project a united front, both internally and externally.
“Through the military exercises around Taiwan, the CCP is blatantly supporting domestic pro-CCP individuals, including pro-CCP factions. By doing so, they escalate the internal chaos in Taiwan, apply further pressure, and exacerbate divisions and conflicts within Taiwan.”
Before Lai Ching-te’s inauguration, the Taiwan legislature engaged in heated debates on “Parliamentary Reform” related bills starting on Friday (May 17th), triggering physical clashes and altercations between legislators from various parties. Five Democratic Progressive Party legislators and one Kuomintang legislator were injured and hospitalized.
On Tuesday (21st), the legislature continued its session, and the opposition Kuomintang and People First Party swiftly passed around 20 amendments regarding “officials’ non-counter questioning,” “personnel approval rights,” and “investigation rights,” taking advantage of their superior seating numbers.
One of the provisions states that officials must not counter question during legislative sessions, otherwise it constitutes a “contempt of parliament” and may lead to criminal liability.
Outside the legislature that day, over 40 civil organizations gathered, starting a protest titled “Parliament’s abuse of power, democratic regression, civil rescue, parliamentary unity,” which lasted the whole day. In the evening, more protesters assembled outside the legislature. The organizers claimed that the number reached 30,000.
The Democratic Progressive Party criticized the Kuomintang and People First Party for forcefully pushing forward “unconstitutional bills,” stating that the process lacked democracy and that the content was detrimental to constitutional governance.
The Kuomintang argued that these reforms aimed to enhance the legislature’s oversight of the executive branch. Kuomintang legislator Chen Yu-chen criticized the Democratic Progressive Party for obstructing the bills as they were accustomed to monopolizing power.
On Thursday (23rd), Taiwanese civil organizations initiated a nationwide coordination protest titled “Disdain Parliament.” It was anticipated that protests would take place in Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Chiayi, Changhua, and Taitung on the 24th.
Regarding the turmoil in the Taiwan legislature, Tang Jingyuan believes that there are deeply ingrained elements of CCP infiltration in play, showcasing a united front from within and without. He explained that this could be discerned from three factors.
In February, individuals within the CCP system leaked information to overseas media, stating that the CCP had planned through the Taiwan Affairs Office, with Wang Huning as the lead figure, to utilize the Taiwan legislature as a breakthrough point to undermine Taiwan’s internal stability.
Tang Jingyuan stated that this explicitly mentioned using the legislature to promote so-called parliamentary reform bills to create internal discord in Taiwan, constraining the administration of Lai Ching-te and fostering a sense of restriction and interference.
Secondly, Tang Jingyuan mentioned that Kuomintang parliamentary leader Fu Kun-chi led
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Kuomintang legislators on a visit, meeting specifically with Wang Huning, who is the hidden hand behind the chaos in the legislature this time.
Thirdly, according to Tang Jingyuan, though normally parliamentary reform bills would eventually be passed, it might take a longer time. However, in this case, a “battering ram” approach was used to rapidly pass these highly controversial bills within the shortest time frame, possibly under external pressure or due to significant pressure from the CCP, compelling the move.
“In essence, what we observe from these military exercises is a form of internal-external collaboration, an inside-outside assault, a typical political maneuver by the CCP to achieve a specific political agenda by deliberately subverting some fundamental procedural norms. This is the peculiar aspect of the chaos within the legislature that we are observing.”
Legal expert Yuan Hongbing living in Australia revealed to the media in February that CCP leader Xi Jinping had issued new directives for united front work, “Completely disrupt and infiltrate Taiwan! The battlefield is in the Legislative Yuan!”
“Upon receiving Xi Jinping’s directives, the CCP’s Taiwan Affairs Office swiftly took action, submitting a document to Xi Jinping and Wang Huning on January 27, titled ‘Key Points of United Front Strategy in Occupying the High Ground of the Taiwan Legislature.’ This document was distributed to the CCP’s united front bureaus, political consultative conferences, and regional Taiwan affairs offices at various provincial levels.”
On May 23rd, Yuan Hongbing analyzed for Dajiyuan that the CCP’s strategic approach towards Taiwan is summarized in simple words – through cognitive warfare, information warfare, and psychological operations, along with united front tactics involving buying off certain Taiwan politicians to create chaos internally, starting with disrupting Taiwan’s parliament.
“Subsequently, through these psychological and information warfare tactics, they aim to undermine Taiwan’s society’s will to resist authoritarianism, thereby paving the way for the PLA’s smooth invasion, creating conditions for when they initiate a cross-strait war. This is the overall CCP strategy.”
Yuan Hongbing stated that the opposition parties in Taiwan have proposed a series of unconstitutional bills. The purpose is to complicate the governance actions of the Lai Ching-te administration by passing these bills. This is a significant move on their part.
Simultaneously, he mentioned, “Today (23rd) the CCP has started a large-scale military exercise targeting Taiwan. This is evidently in conjunction with the significant turmoil in the Taiwan legislature. It creates a united internal and external pressure effect on the democratically elected Lai Ching-te government. This is the current situation in the Taiwan Strait.”
Regarding the large-scale military exercises by the CCP, independent commentator Cai Shengkun analyzed on Platform X that given the CCP’s current military superiority, seizing Taiwan may not be too challenging. However, the Taiwan issue is not just about the millions of people on the island but crucial to the global strategy of the United States, the existence of the US in the Asian region, as well as the future of Japan and South Korea.
He emphasized that Taiwan’s importance to the US far exceeds that of Ukraine. Once the war begins, Japan, South Korea, and the US, who have no retreat, will definitely not stand idly by. Trying to swiftly take Taiwan through lightning strikes and compelling the US, Japan, and South Korea to accept the situation may not be that easy.
“As for how much the Chinese military is willing to engage in this war, it remains to be seen. Xi Jinping completely distrusts military leaders, who generally have qualms about him and lack loyalty. To authorize military actions, once granted, it isn’t simple to reclaim that power. A slight misstep, and Xi Jinping’s hard-won indefinite term will come to an end.”
Tang Jingyuan mentioned that the CCP’s ambition to annex Taiwan has been the number one established agenda for decades, stemming from the era of Mao Zedong. No matter how Taiwan performs, it won’t sway the CCP from following its determined path. Once the CCP deems the conditions are ripe and they have the strength to counterbalance the US, they will act against Taiwan.
For the people of Taiwan, in order to safeguard their democracy, they absolutely cannot trust any promises made by the CCP and must see through its wicked intentions. This is a crucial point.
He analyzed that the CCP has been able to perpetrate evil for decades by using two main tactics – violence and lies. Moreover, the fabrications produced by the CCP sound more appealing.
Especially after decades of separation across the Taiwan Strait, the new generation of Taiwanese, who have not directly dealt with the CCP, may not be familiar with the deceptive tactics employed by the CCP. They may be easily persuaded by the CCP’s promises and persuasive rhetoric. It’s crucial for the Taiwanese public to possess independent thinking and discernment in the face of such deceit.
This is also why many of Taiwan’s internal media outlets, once infiltrated by the CCP, act as CCP proxies, spreading the deceitful narratives of the CCP. Therefore, the Taiwanese people need to have the ability to think independently and identify such deceptive propaganda and rhetoric.