The Taiwan Institute of National Policy held a seminar on the 21st, inviting scholars and experts to analyze “The National Security Policy of the New Government: Vision and Challenges” from various aspects including economy, diplomacy, defense, regional affairs, cross-strait relations, and international relations.
Former Vice Premier of the Executive Yuan and Chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation, Chang Wen-tsang, was invited to speak at the event. He mentioned that President Lai Ching-te’s inaugural speech emphasized maintaining the status quo based on the constitutional system of the Republic of China, which is in line with mainstream international consensus, Taiwan’s national security interests, and the expectations of the majority of the people. Both former President Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te advocate for maintaining the status quo and not allowing it to be changed. The geopolitical risks in Taiwan are of concern to foreign investors, and any turmoil in the Taiwan Strait could lead to an international economic crisis. Chang Wen-tsang has conveyed to American business leaders that Taiwan will enhance its security posture, and both the government and the people are determined to safeguard national security.
The President of the Taiwan Institute of National Policy, Wang Hong-ren, chaired the entire seminar. Chen Sung-hsing, a professor at the Graduate Institute of National Development and Mainland China Studies at the Chinese Culture University, mentioned that the joint communiqué issued after the 2023 G7 Summit specified the maintenance of economic security in seven areas, highlighting the critical importance of economic security for Taiwan. With Russia’s aggression in Ukraine sparking a new Cold War, the current international economic environment is similar to the period before World War I and II, with persistent geopolitical risks. He hopes that China’s economic security can influence Xi Jinping’s cross-strait decisions; in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, the global economic cost would be severe, and the Communist Party of China should be wary as other countries would impose sanctions.
Former ROC Representative to the United States, David Lee, stated that President Lai’s inaugural speech clearly and responsibly declared “value diplomacy” and “maintaining the status quo” to ensure a robust, resilient, and predictable Taiwan-US relationship. Apart from conducting freedom of navigation operations through the Taiwan Strait prior to May 20th, the US has also provided Taiwan with about USD 1 billion in non-repayable military assistance, accelerating the process of providing defensive weaponry to Taiwan, assisting in special forces training, and even discussing defense industry supply chain issues, demonstrating Washington’s clarity amidst ambiguity.
David Lee pointed out that during the eight years of the Tsai administration, with six transits through the US and visits by ROC national security officials to Washington, Taiwan has become “the world’s Taiwan” and “the Indo-Pacific’s Taiwan”. The Lai administration team should demonstrate ambition, actively negotiate military procurement processes, accelerate the signing of trade agreements, avoid double taxation agreements, facilitate cooperation in overseas airport inspections, assist Taiwan in meaningful participation in international organizations, and continue to strengthen engagement with parliament, think tanks, NGOs, and other sectors. Based on mutual trust and understanding, the Lai government can show a reasonable level of ambition to elevate Taiwan-US relations.
Researcher Lin Cheng-yi from the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica stated that Taiwan faces challenges in diplomacy and national defense. He interpreted President Lai’s inaugural speech, which mentioned “China” seven times, as referring to the actions of PLA aircraft crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait to threaten the island. A survey by The Economist showed that 77% of young people in Taiwan are willing to fight for their country, indicating a strong sense of national identity among Taiwanese youth. Lin emphasized that military cooperation and exchanges between Taiwan and the US are crucial; Taiwanese pilots are trained in Arizona, US National Guards come to Taiwan for training, and chance encounters between Taiwanese and US warships are not uncommon.
Chang Kuo-cheng, Deputy Director of the General Education Center at Taipei Medical University, stated that Taiwan’s defense policy should leave no room for misjudgment by Xi Jinping. In the future, Taiwan should strive to acquire F-35 fighter jets from the US, as the enemy is likely to target Taiwan’s naval units with airpower, and maintaining air and sea control would extend the time for “Taiwan’s self-defense” and acceptance of US military aid. Given the dominance of the pro-blue camp in the legislature, it is difficult to pass defense construction bills; therefore, convening a “National Defense and National Interest Conference” to gather military expertise from various sectors and seek public support for defense reforms may be considered.
Senior Advisor at the National Policy Research Institute, Lo Zhi-zheng, mentioned that although President Lai’s inaugural speech demonstrated policy stability, continuity, and predictability, the military threat from across the strait is intensifying. The CCP’s gray zone strategy continues to change the situation in the Taiwan Strait piece by piece; Taiwan’s desired status quo is constantly being challenged, and the government must consider how to restore the status quo. He noted that Taiwan’s excessive reliance on the high-tech industry, while appearing robust in overall economy, faces issues of uneven economic resource distribution, posing a significant challenge for Taiwan’s future.
Li Chen-yu, Chief Economist of Taishin Financial Holdings, remarked that President Lai’s inaugural speech addressed the future development of Taiwan’s industries, showing a deep understanding of the industrial landscape. By connecting the industrial supply chain with the countries in the first island chain, Taiwan aims to enhance its maritime technology research, aligning well with Taiwan’s identity as an island nation. Li believes that Taiwan should prioritize the AIization of its industries and strategically develop its manufacturing sector, asserting that “the stronger Taiwan’s economy and industries are, the more secure Taiwan will be.”
Dong Li-wen, Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Peace Research Foundation, felt that President Lai’s inaugural speech clearly communicated Taiwan’s stance to Beijing and sent a resolute and clear signal to the world. The path for Taiwan as declared by President Lai is one that leads towards a globalizing Taiwan, transforming Taiwan’s international image and status, making Taiwan a contributor to global peace, stability, and prosperity, with “Taiwan can help” being Taiwan’s international calling card; it is certain that President Lai will lead Taiwan firmly down this path in the future.
Shih-ping Fan, a professor at the Department of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan Normal University, noted that President Lai’s inaugural speech exhibited a firmer stance on cross-strait relations, transitioning from President Tsai’s “cross-strait not subordinate” to the assertion that the ROC and the PRC are not subordinate to each other. The CCP’s recent sanctions against five Taiwanese media personnel highlight its predicament, as the media plays the role of government watchdog and reflects the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan. He mentioned that Taiwan’s relationships with the US and Japan are amicable, with US Secretary of State Blinken referring to the “President of Taiwan,” and the Japanese Foreign Minister even mentioning the names of our president and vice president. Should China continue to poach our diplomatic allies, it may backfire.
Visiting scholar at the Center for International Relations at National Chengchi University, Hu Qiu-ping, suggested that Taiwan should attract investments from Southeast Asia and leverage the strength of Southeast Asian students returning after studying in Taiwan to assist in the development of Taiwanese businesses. He cited Malaysia’s establishment of a diversified security framework after gaining independence from the UK as an example for Taiwan, indicating the importance of enhancing Taiwan’s diverse security mechanisms to counter Chinese aggression.
Deputy Director of the Taiwan Institute of National Policy, Guo Yu-ren, stated that right from the beginning of President Lai’s inaugural speech, gray zone military actions by the CCP were highlighted. The CCP not only denies Taiwan’s sovereignty but has increasingly denied Taiwan’s governance through various coercive measures in the past eight years, destabilizing the regional security environment. Since 2013, China has reclaimed 16 artificial islands in the South China Sea, totaling 25 square kilometers, with the recent construction of an “artificial island” at Sabina Shoal, putting the Philippines’ defense in a precarious position.
Guo Yu-ren mentioned that the CCP has consistently disregarded international law and norms, as evidenced by last year’s G7 Hiroshima Summit communique detailing various actions by China that undermined the international order. Xi Jinping’s recent visit to France was aimed at avoiding a similar situation scheduled for this year in Italy. Through its gray zone actions, CCP is attempting to alter the cross-strait, regional, and international order, which could result in more significant costs; Western countries, particularly the US, are expected to continue implementing countermeasures.
Chairman of the Taiwan Institute of National Policy, Deng Hong-mao, stated, “President Lai emphasizes connecting with the international democratic camp, so we should urge the US and Japan to provide substantive support beyond symbolic gestures, especially coordinating and soliciting assistance from allies like the US, Japan, and Australia to help maintain our diplomatic relations.” While President Lai adheres to the cross-strait policy of maintaining the status quo set by President Tsai, recognizing the dynamic nature of the status quo, the new government led by President Lai will have to engage in proactive communication under the unfavorable parliamentary environment to successfully implement cross-strait policies.
Deng Hong-mao stressed that given the CCP’s intensified infiltration and united front tactics against Taiwan, the concept of national security is not limited to external threats; the new government should consider how to unite opposition parties to strengthen internal national security. Additionally, Taiwan should leverage its strategic position as the first island chain, its key role in international maritime shipping, and its semiconductor AI industry to enhance diplomatic and national security capabilities. Moreover, President Lai’s speech did not address Southeast Asian countries, which are crucial for Taiwan; enhancing relations with Southeast Asian countries through Taiwanese businesses, overseas students, and NGOs is vital.