According to the latest outlook on seasonal climate released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday, almost every corner of the United States is likely to experience warmer temperatures this summer. The continental United States may even challenge its record for the hottest summer ever.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA forecasts that in June, July, and August of this year, nearly every state in the U.S. will face a hotter-than-normal summer. Over the next three months, the likelihood of high temperatures is highest in the western region, with parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado having a 60% to 70% chance of experiencing above-average temperatures.
Several other western states and the northeastern regions of the U.S. are also likely to see temperatures above the average.
Within the continental U.S., only parts of South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa are exceptions where temperatures are less likely to exceed normal levels.
Usually, high temperatures are the number one weather-related killer in the United States each year. According to records from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), in 2023, there were as many as 2,302 deaths in the U.S. due to high temperatures, an increase from previous years. However, there may still be underreporting based on data collection methods.
The ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific are currently high, and global temperatures have been at record levels for 11 consecutive months. The transition from El Niño to La Niña has already begun, and these factors combined make it highly possible for the summer of 2024 to be one of the hottest on record in the lower 48 states of the U.S.
In fact, considering long-term and anthropogenic climate changes, this summer may rival the hottest summers of 2021 and 1936.
For millions of people along the Gulf of Mexico coast, the hot and humid weather has already started.
Key West, Florida, recorded a record high temperature of 114.4 degrees Fahrenheit on Wednesday, with most of southern Florida experiencing temperatures in the 90s this week.
The increasing heat will also make the weather drier. In the western states where high temperatures are likely, rainfall tends to be below normal, which could lead to more active seasonal wildfires.