As the countdown to the 2024 U.S. presidential election begins, a survey shows that nearly half of the Taiwanese people are paying attention to this election. Moreover, a striking 67% of respondents support the U.S. providing military assistance to Taiwan. The attitudes of the U.S. two-party candidates toward the security situation in the Taiwan Strait and their economic and trade policies have captured widespread attention in Taiwan.
The Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation released a latest survey on October 22, showing that among respondents aged 20 and above, 43.9% expressed concerns. Of these, 6.5% were “very concerned” about the outcome of the U.S. election, while 49.7% answered “not concerned.” Further analysis indicated that younger age groups and those with higher levels of education tend to be more interested in the U.S. election.
The survey also asked Taiwanese people about their views on the $567 million military aid approved by U.S. President Biden to Taiwan on September 29. The results showed that 67% of individuals “welcome U.S. military assistance to Taiwan,” while 19% answered negatively.
Breaking down by party affiliation, 90% of Democratic Progressive Party supporters “welcome U.S. military aid,” while 49% of Kuomintang supporters support it, with 37% expressing opposition.
In the recent presidential election campaign, the stances of the U.S. two-party candidates on the Taiwan Strait issue have become a focal point of public opinion in Taiwan.
Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump has stated that he is willing to use tariffs as a punishment instead of military action. According to the Wall Street Journal, he said last Friday, on October 18, that if China “enters” Taiwan, he would impose an additional 150%-200% tariff on China.
In contrast, Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris stated during an interview with CBS News on October 7 that the U.S. should “not seek conflict” on China-related issues. She emphasized that the U.S. must ensure maintaining the “One China Policy,” supporting Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, ensuring the freedom of the Taiwan Strait. However, she did not give a definite answer on whether the U.S. would use force to support Taiwan.
Hu Ruizhou, deputy director of the Taiwan Security Research Center at National Chengchi University in Taipei, stated that Taiwan plays the most critical and perilous role in the U.S.-China power struggle. Although both Trump and Harris support using Taiwan to contain China’s rise, their approaches differ. Trump leans more towards “negotiation and trade” to gain U.S. interests through economic means, while Harris is more focused on cooperating with allies to strengthen the strategy of containing China.
Hu Ruizhou believes that if Harris is elected, she would continue Biden’s diplomatic style but may not pledge to “deploy troops to protect Taiwan” like Biden did. In his view, compared to the recent military exercises around Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) test-firing of intercontinental ballistic missiles on September 25 has already sounded the alarm for the eruption of a nuclear war for the U.S.
Hu Ruizhou told Voice of America, “In the context of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, Trump and Harris are aligned in containing China, but Trump focuses more on economic and trade aspects and gaining U.S. benefits through negotiation and trade, whereas the Democratic Party operates more delicately, forming factions and strengthening the containment of China’s rise through cooperation with many allies. Trump’s approach pays less attention to the relationship with allies.”
However, Hu Ruizhou also pointed out that the U.S. is currently deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East. Therefore, regardless of who wins the presidency, they would hope for “peace” in Asia, especially in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
At a symposium on “U.S. Presidential Election and Cross-Strait Relations” organized by the Asia Political and Economic Association in Taipei on October 17, Professor Xue Jianwu from the Institute of East Asian Studies at National Chengchi University analyzed that the Democratic Party platform incorporates the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiqués, and the Six Assurances, while the Republican Party platform does not mention Taiwan. It is expected that the two sides will handle cross-strait issues through negotiation, posing a greater challenge for Taiwan.
Guo Shuting, a financial professional in Taipei, expressed in an interview with Voice of America that he hopes for a businessman like Trump to be elected because this “negotiation expert” is good at setting prices and conditions. Taiwan can then “pay” for security.
Guo Shuting said, “Who can provide us with clearer and faster military purchases? This helps Taiwan choose what to buy and what kind of training to do. This is of great help to Taiwan and the current stability of the Taiwan Strait. The adherence to agreements and principles by the two U.S. leaders in terms of the importance of being able to negotiate with each other is more crucial, I think.”
Guo Shuting believes that Trump also uses levying tariffs as an economic and trade bargaining chip to deter China. He described Trump as running the U.S. as a business, aiming to compete for the top spot, selling things to China at a price while preventing China from surpassing the U.S. In contrast, Harris is like someone “offering a service without specifying the price.” Additionally, he is concerned that Harris may not address domestic issues adequately, leading to the decline of the U.S., which could in turn neglect the Taiwan Strait issue.
However, a student at National Taiwan University in Taipei, Wang, believes that if Harris is elected and continues Biden’s approach, he would feel more secure about the Taiwan Strait situation. Wang said, “If China attacks, (Biden promised) they would send troops to defend, while Trump said that if China attacks, tariffs will increase by 200%. Biden’s approach is more forceful, so I think it is safer this way.”
In addition to security issues, the economic and trade policies of the two-party candidates have also garnered high attention from the Taiwanese people. Trump has proposed imposing tariffs of 10% to 20% on most imported products and planning to levy tariffs of over 60% on China to push for a decoupling of the U.S. from China. Conversely, Harris advocates for “de-risking” and not completely decoupling from China.
Xue Jianwu, a professor at the Institute of East Asian Studies at National Chengchi University, stated that the Republican Party’s diplomacy prioritizes “America First,” differing from the Democratic Party’s “globalism.” However, both parties have a consensus on China and will adopt stricter trade policies and technological blockades.
Mr. Xu, a financial industry worker in Taipei, believes that if Harris is elected, he is expected to continue Biden’s moderate economic and trade path, which would be beneficial for Taiwan’s economy. Conversely, Trump’s “America First” approach would tighten trade barriers, encourage chip manufacturing and high-tech industries to return to the U.S. or set up plants in the U.S., which may not be favorable for Taiwan.
Academician Hu Ruizhou emphasized that regardless of who wins the presidency, the U.S. will aim to control TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), particularly in advanced chip manufacturing. For example, Trump has complained that “Taiwan took away the U.S.’s chip business.” Therefore, Taiwan needs to make long-term plans early, adapt flexibly to changes in international circumstances, and national defense strategic deployments.
Mr. Guo Jiayong, the executive director of Huguixingye Medical Devices in Taipei, believes that the U.S. and Taiwan have a cooperative relationship in the technology industry and supply chain integration. Therefore, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election will not have a significant impact on the industrial sector.
Guo Jiayong stated that Taiwan, positioned in the competition between the two powers, has pricing power in the semiconductor field, and its alliance relationship with the U.S. is closer through the “Friend-to-Friend Outsourcing” alliance. Even if Trump raises taxes globally, the likelihood of taxation on Taiwan remains low because the U.S. cannot do without Taiwan’s supply chain.
Guo Jiayong frankly mentioned that there is competition between China and the U.S., and decoupling in economic and trade relations encourages U.S. brands or channels to avoid “Made in China,” benefiting Taiwan through the “shift order effect.”
Guo Jiayong told Voice of America, “Previously, the U.S. might have used the mainland China supply chain. Now, due to the decoupling issue, Taiwan’s supply chain is complete, making Taiwan the most suitable. Design outsourcing may come across mainland Chinese companies wanting to make their products ‘Made in Taiwan’ and supplying them to the U.S. ‘Made in Taiwan’ presents an opportunity for Taiwan.”
Guo Jiayong believes that whoever is elected president will find it difficult to change U.S. policies based on national interests. In the past, the U.S. used national power to nurture cooperation partners, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China, promoting rapid economic growth that has benefited from U.S. national policy guidance.
Source: Voice of America