Leaders from the BRICS countries held their 16th summit in Kazan, Russia from October 22 for three consecutive days. Of particular interest was the meeting between Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Experts analyzed various aspects of the direction of the Sino-Russian relationship and pointed out that despite the repeated emphasis on the strength of the relationship by both leaders, there are underlying contradictions and variables.
Similar to Xi Jinping’s previous visit to Russia, this time Putin did not personally welcome him at the airport, instead, he was greeted by several high-ranking Russian officials. CCTV claimed that Xi Jinping was welcomed warmly by “senior Russian officials.”
In contrast to Putin’s warm embraces and laughter during meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, when meeting Xi Jinping, Putin appeared reserved, with both leaders simply exchanging smiles, shaking hands, and taking photos. Back in May, during Putin’s visit to China, Xi Jinping had hugged Putin for several seconds before departure.
On the first night of Xi’s arrival in Russia, he held his third meeting of the year with Russian President Putin at the Kazan Kremlin.
According to TASS, the entire meeting between Putin and Xi lasted for about an hour. During the public part of the meeting, Putin stated that the cooperation between Russia and China is a model for establishing relations between countries, emphasizing the nature of the bilateral relationship as “equal, mutually beneficial, and completely non-opportunistic.”
When Xi Jinping spoke, he described Putin as a “dear old friend” and emphasized that the deep friendship between China and Russia will not change. Putin seemed to have no reaction to being called an “old friend” by Xi Jinping.
Zheng Qinmo, associate professor of the Department of Diplomacy at Tamkang University in Taiwan, stated that considering the current global situation, Xi Jinping’s support for Russia leaves no room for any change. However, there is no genuine friendship between China and Russia; although they verbally express mutual support, their cooperation is primarily aimed at challenging the current U.S.-led international order and can be considered temporary.
“Many contradictions exist between China and Russia. We see Xi Jinping addressing the part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict where, on one hand, he needs to stabilize and express support for Russia, and on the other hand, he is also fearful of worsening relations with the West, especially as the Chinese Communist Party is facing serious economic downturn.”
Zheng Qinmo also mentioned that although Russia holds the presidency of the BRICS summit this time, it seems more like China is leading the discussions. China and Russia are also vying for a dominant position among developing countries within the BRICS summit.
He further pointed out that in the field of global finance, Russia, under Western sanctions, is eager to establish a cross-border payment system quickly. However, China has reservations; it aims to construct an international order led by China, based on the interests of developing countries, to counterbalance the United States. As relations sour with the U.S. and the European Union gradually worsen, China hopes to have another battlefield under its control to challenge the existing international order and values.
Yao Yuan, professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in the U.S., stated that China and Russia emphasize their close relationship to counter any attempts by the U.S. to exploit a loophole in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Xi and Putin aim to stress that there are no loopholes between them. However, as China also conducts business with the European Union and seeks to weaken their alliance with the United States, the China-Russia relationship still has many variables, and the statements made by Putin and Xi Jinping are superficial.
The background of the BRICS summit is that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is ongoing, a new conflict has emerged in the Middle East, and China has escalated military exercises around the Taiwan Strait, even conducting live-fire drills.
Yao Yuan mentioned that concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China primarily focuses on providing Russia with greater economic freedom to support its defense industry through trade. Secondly, in the Middle East, China and Russia intend to shift the focus of the U.S. from the Ukraine conflict and Taiwan security. “In essence, it is about how they can create more chaos in the Middle East with minimal resources, making it difficult for the U.S. to handle.”
He further stated that the U.S. is willing to expend maximum resources in international affairs to deter potential adversaries. Whether it’s aid to Israel or Ukraine, the U.S. remains the largest contributor. More chaos in the Middle East also impacts the energy market in the European Union.
Zheng Qinmo remarked that China’s role in regional conflicts in the Middle East is becoming increasingly apparent. For instance, in July this year, Beijing hosted a meeting of Palestinian factions, including Hamas, and signed the Beijing Declaration. Although many of these leaders were later targeted by Israel, China’s role in regional conflicts in the Middle East has become undeniable.
He noted that China continues to challenge the existing international order through various geopolitical and ethnic conflicts worldwide, stirring up disputes. China is a leader in this axis of evil. The private meeting between Xi and Putin ostensibly focused on the Ukraine issue but also involved planning concerning the Middle East to challenge the world order.
In addition to security issues, cooperation among the BRICS countries towards de-dollarization is also a focal point. Russia had previously proposed establishing an independent payment and settlement system similar to SWIFT among BRICS countries and suggested using digital currency for investments within the group.
Yao Yuan stated that the possibility of the RMB replacing the dollar system is very low. “The value of the RMB is questioned by many countries. Xi Jinping’s initial plan to integrate developing countries into the RMB market through the Belt and Road Initiative failed. Collaboration between the RMB and the Russian ruble to gain more advantages is a pipe dream because the ruble, a currency under Western sanctions, is mostly only used in Russia.”
Zheng Qinmo mentioned that the BRICS countries have long aspired to establish a common currency for circulation among themselves, similar to the euro. Even China is pushing for oil trading in RMB, aiming to challenge the dominance of the petrodollar among the BRICS countries. However, they are facing significant difficulties in reality. The widespread use of the dollar is unchallenged, China’s economic downturn, foreign capital withdrawal, and banking system threats are raising global concerns about potential financial crises.
The BRICS countries, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, recently welcomed Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as new members.
One of the focal points of public concern was whether Xi Jinping would meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Kazan. Since the border conflict in mid-2020, relations between the two countries have been worsening. However, just before the summit, they reached an agreement on border patrol arrangements.
According to Zheng Qinmo, beyond territorial disputes, the crux is the competition between China and India for leadership in developing countries. India even hopes to play a more significant role in the UN Security Council. Being a key pillar of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and a democratic country, India refrains from criticizing Russia’s war in Ukraine but maintains political and economic ties with Western nations, refraining from direct assistance to Russia.
“In the triangle relationship among Russia, India, and China, the relationship between Russia and India is relatively closer compared to that between China and India. The China-India relationship will present significant challenges for the future integration of the BRICS countries in terms of cross-border payment systems, and even discussions on a common currency entail substantial difficulties in geopolitical coordination.”
The Taiwanese government recently disclosed details of its wartime food supply plan on October 22, indicating preparations for a potential blockade by the Chinese Communist Party against Taiwan. Despite repeatedly expressing support for Beijing’s “unification” goals, Russia has stated it does not believe military force is necessary.
Yao Yuan pointed out that Russia is preoccupied with its own challenges. Although consistently championing the so-called “One China” principle in support of China, Russia’s stance will not have a significant impact on the international community. Even if a conflict were to occur, Russia lacks the capability to support China militarily, so its expressions of support are merely positions stated.
He believes that both Taiwan and the U.S. understand that if the Taiwan Strait situation escalates, and the U.S. intervenes, it could lead to a world war. If China cannot win the conflict decisively, it will inevitably face defeat. Therefore, to prevent war from breaking out, it is crucial to prepare and deter China from taking rash actions.
Zheng Qinmo remarked that China lacks the strength to challenge the U.S. authority in the Indo-Pacific but will continue grey-zone operations against Taiwan, necessitating Taiwanese vigilance and reinforcing their defense capabilities. He noted that among the countries participating in the BRICS summit, both Russia and Iran are facing internal instability, and China is experiencing various conflicts internally. “Of course, in times of political crisis, these dictators may take risks. Therefore, Taiwan must be vigilant in response to China’s provocations, and the best way is to arm itself.”