After the Third Plenum of the Communist Party of China, various strange signs in the political arena now seem to have a reasonable explanation: a bloodless political coup may have taken place in Zhongnanhai. The First Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, Zhang Youxia, may have joined forces with veteran officials such as Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan to force Xi Jinping out of power.
How could a trusted person in the military and a group of elders who were unwilling to intervene in worldly affairs join forces? The instigator turns out to be Xi Jinping himself. His rash actions have become the four main reasons for his failure.
Since the Third Plenum of the Communist Party of China, various anomalies have emerged in Zhongnanhai: the self-promotion of “reformer Xi Jinping” was swiftly taken down, rumors circulated during the meeting that Xi Jinping had a stroke and was rushed to the hospital, the CCTV broadcast of “Xinwen Lianbo” did not use live scenes; after the meeting, Xi Jinping disappeared from the front page of the party media, his confidants Cai Qi and Wang Xiaohong repeatedly refrained from mentioning Xi Jinping as never before, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi also emphasized the “strengthening of centralized and unified leadership by the Party Central Committee for external work.” Personal worship propaganda in the party media disappeared, and topics like “two upholds,” the Chinese dream, and preparing for war vanished, military reports advocated for democratic centralism, and the People’s Daily promoted grassroots democracy.
The sudden disappearance of the “two upholds” is particularly strange. This referred to “firmly upholding Xi Jinping as the core of the Party Central Committee and the entire party, firmly upholding the authority and centralized leadership of the Party Central Committee.” Literally, anyone can see that this directly embodies Xi Jinping’s personal worship and cult of personality, especially since in October 2022, the “two upholds” were written into the CCP Charter. Failure to uphold them is seen as disloyalty to the party. But now, the high-ranking officials of the CCP have stopped mentioning it!
Various explanations have been given by pro-communist media for these odd occurrences. For example, the removal of “reformer Xi Jinping” was explained by an article in Nikkei Asia on August 29 by Katsuji Nakazawa, citing fierce criticism from political forces including retired veterans, which led to the article being accused of allowing Xi Jinping and his father to steal Deng Xiaoping’s achievements, forcing Xi to withdraw the article. Nakazawa also believes this incident shows that the old guard of the CCP remains loyal to Deng Xiaoping, not Xi Jinping.
However, this explanation has only led to more mysteries: when did the once passive elders of the CCP become so resolute, and how did the current party leader follow suit? Additionally, it is incomprehensible as the CCP has always emphasized that political power comes from the barrel of a gun, Xi Jinping’s confidants have controlled the military for years, so why did he suddenly relinquish his authority? It should be noted that during the 20th Party Congress, former party leader Hu Jintao, who wanted to give advice, was embarrassingly confronted by Xi Jinping in full view of everyone and had to leave the podium.
The strangeness continues as later, although Xi Jinping reappeared, screenshots from videos revealed a strange scar on the back of his head. What happened?
In August, retired professor Leng Jifu of Renmin University of China published an open letter online, pointing fingers at the party leader, claiming through WeChat that Xi Jinping was seriously ill and unable to work, leaving the entire work of the CCP to the Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and He Weidong. He called on them to support the establishment of the “Republic of China.” Such bold criticism of the central government, however, went without repercussions! Professor Leng Jifu also told overseas media Epoch Times in a response that he did write that letter.
What’s even more bizarre is that the CCP’s military has also seen a series of unusual movements. Zhang Youxia, who was rumored to have lost power last year, has resurfaced at the helm of the military, leading to a reverse purge of generals aligned with Xi Jinping’s Min-Zhe faction in recent years, indicating that Xi Jinping has lost some military power.
It was apparent that Zhang Youxia had fallen from grace before. The most noticeable sign was the arrest of General Li Shangfu, his former subordinate at the General Logistics Department. Despite the Central Discipline Inspection Commission publicly stating they would not go after Zhang Youxia’s tenure, after Li Shangfu was publicly investigated, official reports claimed he had committed bribery, making it clear where the arrows were pointing.
Furthermore, Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong and Central Military Commission member and Political Department Director Miao Hua, who come from the 31st Group Army, a faction close to Xi Jinping’s Min-Zhe faction, have risen in prominence in recent years. On January 10 of this year, He Weidong met with the newly appointed academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering, representing congratulations from Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and the Central Military Commission. Miao Hua also participated in this meeting. Among the CCP military elite, besides Xi Jinping, the most qualified person to meet with academicians should be Zhang Youxia. As the First Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, Zhang is in charge of political work within the military. Therefore, excluding Zhang Youxia and arranging for He Weidong to meet seemed to be a deliberate move by Xi Jinping. Overseas analyst Chen Pokong believes, “Xi Jinping deliberately promoted He Weidong and marginalized Zhang Youxia, just like the way he promoted Cai Qi in the party-state system and sidelined Li Qiang.”
However, now, everything seems to have turned upside down. In August this year, U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan visited China and specifically requested to meet with Zhang Youxia. Observers noticed that during the meeting, Zhang Youxia’s smile was particularly bright, lacking the traditional restraint of CCP military officers and more akin to a general from the Myanmar military government.
An article by Katsuji Nakazawa in Nikkei Asia argues that the general’s smile suggests a change in the balance of power in China and signifies the status of the CCP’s “red-second-generation” in the military. However, this situation is not so straightforward because since July, it appears that Xi Jinping may have lost military authority, while Zhang Youxia has gained absolute superiority. This includes:
1. Three of the five main theater commanders were replaced by people loyal to Zhang Youxia. Zhang Youxia, who originated from the 14th Army and served in the Beijing Military Region, later the Central Theater Command and North Theater Command, now has his loyalists in key positions. Notably, the new personnel appointed to key positions are clearly aligned with Zhang Youxia. The vacancy in the Central Theater Command is filled by General Xu Deqing, who also hails from the 14th Army and has a close relationship with Zhang Youxia.
2. Xi Jinping’s former confidants in the military have undergone a reverse purge. In July, officials aligned with Zhang Youxia rose to power, while the former Commanders of the Northern and Southern Theater Commands, Wang Xiubin and Wang Qiang, disappeared without a trace. Additionally, in early September, several online sources indicated that Lieutenant General Qin Shutong, the Army’s political commissar, was under investigation. Former PLA Navy Colonel Yao Cheng commented online, suggesting Qin Shutong was closely aligned with Xi Jinping’s confidant Miao Hua, implying that Zhang Youxia likely orchestrated the investigation. Moreover, positions of power shifted between Li Qiaoming and Wang Qiang in a mysterious manner. Prior to the 20th CCP Congress, the military suddenly held a promotion ceremony for Admiral Wang Qiang, the Commander of the Northern Theater Command, while the former Commander Li Qiaoming was mysteriously replaced.
The arrest of Qin Shutong may be related to the most senior military commander, Army Commander Li Qiaoming. Li Qiaoming had a very close relationship with Zhang Youxia, who had moved from the Shenyang Military Region to the Military Commission, while Li Qiaoming transferred to the post of Army Commander of the Northern Theater Command. Their replacements were also loyal to Zhang Youxia. Qin Shutong, who comes from the 31st Group Army, currently serving as the Army’s political commissar alongside Li Qiaoming, reportedly had a strained relationship with him.
The military purge continues. On October 10, Yao Cheng revealed that Zhang Youxia had targeted the Navy, and it was reported that former political commissar Qingshengxiang and current political commissar Yuan Huazhi were under investigation. Both individuals were promoted by Miao Hua when he served as the Navy’s political commissar, and both are close allies of Xi Jinping. Yao Cheng believes Xi Jinping has essentially lost control over the military.
3. There have been changes even among the CCP Military Commission members, indicating Zhang Youxia’s control. According to the factional divisions within the military, Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong, Political Department Director Miao Hua, and Chief of the General Staff Department during the Vietnam War Liu Zhenli are aligned with the Fujian faction or Taiwan Strait faction; General Liu Zhongli, who served as the Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department during the Vietnam War, is Zhang Youxia’s ally, while Discipline Committee Secretary Zhang Shengmin is from the Shaanxi faction loyal to Zhang Youxia. In terms of military power, the Joint Staff Department controls real military power within the military. Now, there are clear signs of trouble for Miao Hua, and He Weidong seems to be standing alone.
Previously, the head of Xi Jinping’s Military Commission office, Director Zong Shaojun, left in April, reportedly moving to the National Defense University of the CCP, while the new director Major General Fang Yongxiang, from the 31st Group Army, rose through the ranks in various positions, but his tenure was quite short, signifying a shallow foundation within the military. The changes did not create much of a stir.
Central Guard Bureau Chief Zhou Hongxu has a very close relationship with Zhang Youxia. Both of them are from the 14th Group Army’s 40th Division, with Zhang serving as the division commander and Zhou as the artillery battalion commander. Zhou Hongxu, recommended by Zhang Youxia in July 2021, was appointed as the Director of the Central Guard Bureau, becoming the top figure in Xi Jinping’s security team.
These are the movements in the CCP government and military after the Third Plenum. From a personnel and capability perspective, Zhang Youxia seems to be in control of the situation.
Moreover, the resurgence of the veterans is quite apparent. At the CCP’s founding celebration on September 30, 15 prominent figures were in attendance, with reformists and former members of the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee, Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan sitting on either side of Xi Jinping, engaging in lively discussions and showing signs of camaraderie. It seems evident that the elders did not just pay lip service to Xi Jinping. Considering the various mysteries and anomalies, it appears that only with Zhang Youxia and the CCP elders joining forces could a complete explanation be found for these occurrences. Therefore, it’s no wonder Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan were beaming with smiles.
And when did this political upheaval occur? It happened during the Third Plenum, as evidenced by the post-meeting communique where Xi Jinping’s name only appeared six times, fewer than the nine times it appeared during the Second Plenum. Observers suggest that “this indicates that personal worship of Xi has reached an all-time low. In Western eyes, the number six symbolizes bad luck. It seems like his power has been marginalized, with the party’s collective replacing the three words ‘Xi Jinping.’ Or perhaps not a replacement but a balance.”
Of course, the changes in the CCP political arena bring up another question – how could a military confidant and a group of elders who refrained from meddling in worldly affairs join forces?
The answer might lie in Xi Jinping’s behavior over the past few years, which has thoroughly offended the elite class within the CCP, except for his immediate circle. In his quest for centralization and to showcase authority, he made four big mistakes:
1. The loss of direction led to the upset in the ruling class. Xi Jinping’s foreign policy missteps and micromanagement have caused significant economic and social disasters. This departure from the post-Cultural Revolution norm, where power was maintained through inaction and wealth accumulation, has shaken the interests of the ruling class in the CCP.
2. Xi Jinping’s lack of gratitude and loyalty at the upper echelons has generated distrust among the CCP elders and military leaders, fostering insecurity and fear of being the next target. His treatment of Hu Jintao and abandonment of the power-sharing promises with different factions made it impossible for many to accept him. His alleged involvement in the death of Li Keqiang to prevent him from seizing power has added a sense of terror, breaking the post-Cultural Revolution consensus of non-fatal struggles within the party.
3. Attempting to replace other party leaders and self-proclaiming as the next Mao Zedong led to him alienating reformist elements within the CCP.
4. The hasty purges in the military have fueled anxiety and apprehension among military officers. The factional divisions and corruption within the CCP are natural occurrences, so breaking the traditional factional balance, as Mao Zedong would avoid, was a risky move. Xi Jinping’s hundreds of arrests of generals have instilled fear in the ranks. The Rocket Force and Logistics Department, the mass purges, and the seizure of top military officials and industry leaders have spread fear and tardiness.
Allegedly, Xi Jinping’s purges in the military, targeting Li Keqiang and Zhang Youxia, along with his efforts to uncover the mysterious prophecy from the “Tui Bei Tu” text involving the man with a bow, aimed to eliminate hidden dangers.
However, as we know from high school physics, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Oppression could foster significant resistance. Ultimately, we see various military leaders uniting to resist, seemingly under the leadership of Zhang Youxia, in concert with the CCP elders, launching a political coup.
What does this all mean for China? The drama has just begun; let us continue to observe.
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