On September 27th, Shigeru Ishiba, a senior politician of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, was elected as the 28th party leader and is scheduled to become the Prime Minister on October 1st. Experts believe that Ishiba’s moderate and neutral stance will help boost public support in the upcoming House of Representatives election. In international affairs, Ishiba is expected to implement solid and gentle policies, with his proposal of an “Asian version of NATO” seen as directed towards the Chinese Communist Party.
This election for the Liberal Democratic Party’s leader had three key features. Firstly, it had the largest number of candidates in history, with 9 people running. Secondly, the top three candidates with the most votes – Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi – despite being LDP lawmakers, represent different political views within Japan. Lastly, the election had its ups and downs, with the initially favored Koizumi ranking third in the first round and losing the chance to advance to the second round, where Takaichi was defeated by Ishiba.
Yaita Akio, a senior media figure in Japan, stated to Dajiyuan that Ishiba, after four attempts during Shinzo Abe’s era, successfully defeated Takaichi, who was considered Abe’s successor. His comeback in the second round made him a “dark horse.” Ishiba, generally seen as a moderate in contrast to the hawkish Abe and Takaichi, is often regarded as a dovish figure.
Yaita suggested that Ishiba’s victory was mainly due to his moderate international stance. With the upcoming House of Representatives election in Japan, Ishiba’s centrist position could appeal to a broader range of voters. Journalist Tahara Soichiro echoed this sentiment, praising Ishiba for his balanced approach and proactive stance on political finance issues. The formation of the new cabinet, a key task ahead, is expected to be relatively smooth given Ishiba’s lack of factional ties.
Post-election, one of Ishiba’s priorities will be to solidify his political power, rejuvenate the LDP’s image, and gain public support by timing the dissolution of the parliament for a general election. As a former LDP Secretary-General, Ishiba stressed the importance of selecting a suitable candidate for the party’s Secretary-General post, considering the other 8 candidates who ran alongside him.
Following Ishiba’s assumption of office as the new LDP leader and incoming Prime Minister, it is anticipated that the Lower House of the Japanese Diet will be dissolved on October 9th, officially announced on the 15th, with a general election held on the 27th of the same month.
Reports indicate that Ishiba intends to appoint Koizumi as the head of the LDP’s election strategy committee and Moriyama Hiroshi, adept at election strategies and internal party dynamics, as the Secretary-General. The four major posts within the LDP are Secretary-General, General Affairs Chairman, Policy Research Council Chairman, and Election Strategy Committee Chairman.
Although Ishiba had intended to offer Takaichi the position of LDP General Affairs Chairman, she declined, stating she would not take up any significant role in Ishiba’s cabinet. Ho Sishen, a special professor in the Japanese Language Department at Fu Jen Catholic University and the director of the Japan and East Asia Research Center, remarked that Ishiba’s victory aligns well with the LDP’s election strategy, reducing the risk of defeat in the House of Representatives elections.
He analyzed that in the upcoming Japanese Lower House election, voters will demand LDP’s response to the political finance scandals that led to the downfall of the Kishida cabinet. Given Ishiba’s distant ties to the LDP factions, it will be easier for him to shape an image of reforming the party from factional politics of the past.
Compared to Takaichi, Ishiba is seen as more convincing in winning back public trust in the LDP. Takaichi’s ties to Abe’s political faction could burden the party during the elections. Furthermore, Takaichi’s ideology is seen as distant from the Komeito Party, potentially straining LDP’s prospects in the House of Representatives elections if they part ways with Komeito. Ho Sishen believes Ishiba’s steady approach will fare better in broadening support compared to Takaichi’s.
Ishiba, a former Defense Minister well-versed in security and defense affairs, consistently advocates for establishing an “Asian version of NATO” to bolster Japan’s security mechanism, safeguard regional peace and security. Post-election, Ishiba emphasized at a press conference on September 27th his plans to build a comprehensive defense system to protect Japan, responding promptly to recent incidents like Russian military aircraft violating Japanese airspace and Chinese aircraft carriers cruising in neighboring waters.
Regarding defense, Ishiba aims to form an “Asian version of NATO,” integrating frameworks such as the US-Japan alliance, US-South Korea alliance, and US-Philippines alliance, emphasizing that Japan’s Self-Defense Forces have the right to act collectively when the nation’s survival is at stake. He even proposed establishing a Self-Defense Force training base in the US to strengthen the alliance, indicating its practicality in enhancing regional security.
In the aftermath of the Cold War and amid global realignment, Ishiba’s pragmatic and rational views on Japan’s security and constitutional reform present an opportunity for Japan to realize his past advocacies during his tenure.