On September 17, Israel launched a shocking operation called “Operation Grim Beeper” against Hezbollah in Lebanon. By detonating pagers and walkie-talkies rigged with explosives, the operation resulted in heavy losses for Hezbollah members. In response to Hezbollah’s retaliation, Israel carried out airstrikes and eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander. Learning from past mistakes, Israel is now targeting its second enemy, taking a proactive stance to maintain the tense and unpredictable situation in the Middle East.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, killing 767 civilians and 376 Israeli security personnel, and taking over 200 hostages. Hamas also launched over 5,000 rockets from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, triggering a war.
Over the past year, the Israeli military entered the Gaza Strip to eliminate Hamas militants, declaring the killing of over 15,000 armed Hamas members and seizing a large amount of weapons and ammunition while destroying many Hamas strongholds and tunnels. Internal reports from Hamas revealed that around 30,000 armed individuals were incapacitated, either physically or mentally unfit for combat.
Hamas has been crushed. Despite Israel’s significant military advantages, the high number of casualties suffered, both in terms of lives lost and the ensuing political, economic, and social turmoil at home and abroad underscore a harsh lesson. It appears that Israel, traditionally proactive in preemptive strikes, failed to effectively defend itself against Hamas’ attacks.
Israel’s victory against Hamas came at a heavy price due to the initial surprise attack. While on the surface, it might seem like an intelligence failure resulting in civilian casualties and captures, in reality, Israel underestimated Hamas’ expansion and relied mainly on defense and reactive measures. The high border walls failed to deter Hamas attacks, sophisticated warning systems proved ineffective, and the inability to stop Hamas from digging tunnels into Israel highlighted shortcomings.
Despite numerous advantages, the Israeli military only took decisive action after Hamas initiated terror attacks. The losses incurred were not just in terms of lives but also led to significant political, economic, and social unrest domestically and internationally. This served as a bloody lesson, emphasizing the importance of proactive defense measures rather than waiting to react passively to attacks.
What made Israel even more uneasy was the international portrayal of its efforts to eliminate Hamas as harming civilians, placing Israel in a defensive position on the global stage. Hamas using civilians as shields made it difficult for the Israeli military to respond effectively. What began as a just anti-terrorism campaign turned into accusations of aggressive invasion, further fueling frustrations within Israel.
With pressure mounting, Israel defeated Hamas, but the governance of Gaza remains a contentious issue. The Israeli military’s primary concern now is preventing Hamas from regrouping and setting its sights on the next enemy – Hezbollah in Lebanon.
About a year ago, following Hamas’ attack, Hezbollah joined the conflict. According to Israeli military statistics, in less than a year, Hezbollah launched over 6,700 rockets, missiles, and unmanned drones towards Israel. Israel responded with limited airstrikes, focusing on eliminating Hamas while avoiding a two-front battle. With the reduced threat from Hamas, Israel could now concentrate on dealing specifically with Hezbollah.
On August 25, Israel discovered Hezbollah preparing for a large-scale rocket and missile attack, deploying thousands of rocket launchers across over 40 launch sites. The attack began in the early hours with Hezbollah conducting approximately 230 launches, with 90% of the launchers positioned in civilian areas near mosques, schools, and UN facilities.
Israel promptly deployed around 100 fighter jets, precisely targeting and neutralizing thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon. While this large-scale attack was successfully thwarted, Israel must acknowledge the ongoing significant threat posed by Hezbollah. Failure to address this threat proactively may result in a repeat of the disastrous consequences seen with Hamas-style attacks.
The unanticipated Hamas attack left the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad heavily criticized, but the successful “Operation Grim Beeper” against Hezbollah demonstrated a marked shift in operations strategy.
On September 17, the operation saw the simultaneous detonation of explosive pagers used by thousands of Hezbollah members, followed by walkie-talkies exploding, resulting in dozens killed and thousands injured. This unprecedented operation sent shockwaves across the globe.
The discussion surrounding the origin of pagers and walkie-talkies pales in comparison to the complexity of Israel’s execution of this operation. It is anticipated that this operation will be immortalized on screen, as its plot exceeds the drama of any previous movie, yet has unfolded in reality.
How Israel managed to infiltrate Hezbollah’s supply chain, discreetly plant explosives with remote detonators in thousands of devices, and achieve widespread remote-controlled detonations remains shrouded in mystery. The operation marked a redemption for Mossad, previously criticized for the failures surrounding the Hamas attack.
While the explosives in pagers and walkie-talkies had limited capacity, causing the immediate death of only dozens of Hezbollah members, from a military standpoint, injuring thousands of enemies is considered a greater success than killing them outright. In warfare, inflicting injuries on adversaries results in increased resource consumption and heightened pressure for the opposing force.
Moreover, both Hezbollah members and Hamas militants, operating amidst civilian populations, posed a challenge regarding targeted airstrikes and conventional assassinations, potentially leading to collateral damage. The controlled scope of the damage inflected in the “Operation Grim Beeper” specifically targeted Hezbollah members.
Beyond the direct impact of Israel’s “Operation Grim Beeper,” the ensuing chaos and disruptions serve to highlight the locations and safehouses of every Hezbollah operative, aiding Mossad’s network in acquiring vital intel more efficiently. If Israeli intelligence agents stationed in hospitals monitor and identify injured Hezbollah operatives, much of Hezbollah’s organizational structure could potentially be exposed.
Hezbollah is likely to immediately cease using any wireless communication devices, resorting to traditional face-to-face meetings to devise counterstrategies. This shift allows Israel to trace back Hezbollah’s networks further and conduct more precise attacks.
On September 20, Israel and Lebanon confirmed the death of senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil in an Israeli airstrike. The U.S. State Department had previously offered a $7 million reward for his capture; the airstrike also resulted in the elimination of other senior commanders.
Following Israel’s “Operation Grim Beeper,” Hezbollah was compelled to abandon remote communication methods, forcing their leaders to convene at a single location in Beirut, which was subsequently tracked by Israel, dealing a decisive blow.
Hezbollah, responsible for numerous terror attacks and deemed a terrorist organization by the West, faced no legal or moral obstacles to Israel’s actions. With the organization crippled, Israel demonstrated the efficacy of its proactive approach.
While Hezbollah may temporarily face disarray and struggle to organize large-scale retaliations swiftly, they are unlikely to be defeated outright. Hezbollah will not cease seeking vengeance, and once they establish a new secure communication network, they will pose a significant threat to Israel. Consequently, Israel must remain vigilant, as a significant confrontation with Hezbollah is more challenging than dealing with Hamas.
Various armed groups associated with Hezbollah, including Iran’s involvement, are likely to temporarily restrict wireless communications and conduct thorough searches for related equipment. It is possible that the Chinese military, intelligence agencies, and secret services may undertake similar precautions.
The aftermath of the “Operation Grim Beeper” goes beyond the Middle East, potentially sparking fundamental changes in communication and operational practices within various countries and organizations. Nobody desires explosive devices residing within their wireless devices.
Israel may not have foreseen these far-reaching impacts, focusing on weakening Hezbollah as its immediate goal. Should the need arise, Israel may opt to crush Hezbollah entirely. Israel remains prepared to counter potential Hezbollah retaliations, while the United States seeks to prevent further escalation in the Middle East, and China hopes to capitalize on increased turmoil.
Tensions in the Middle East escalated in recent times, prompting the deployment of two aircraft carrier fleets by the U.S. Navy. Following a brief easing of tensions, the USS Roosevelt carrier group departed the Middle East, heading back through the Western Pacific. Israel’s sudden implementation of “Operation Grim Beeper” reignited tensions once more. While the U.S. may pressure Israel to exercise restraint, Israel is reluctant to endure continued passive defense, awaiting Hezbollah’s attacks and the repetition of past events.
On September 20, the Israeli military reported that Hezbollah launched 140 rockets towards Israel, with some intercepted, and others landing in uninhabited areas without casualties. Israel promptly conducted a retaliatory targeted airstrike in Beirut.
Residents on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border are being evacuated in large numbers, with Israel’s Defense Minister announcing a new phase in the war, deploying additional resources and military units to the northern border.
According to Israeli military estimates, Hezbollah possesses approximately 20,000 to 25,000 full-time military personnel, along with tens of thousands of reserve forces. Their elite Radwan forces have gained combat experience in regional conflicts, receiving assistance from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with several thousand trained personnel prepared for an attack on Israel.
Israel estimates Hezbollah possesses over 150,000 rockets or missiles, including 400 long-range rockets and missiles with a range of 180-700 kilometers; several hundred precision missiles with a range of 70-250 kilometers; hundreds of drones with a range of approximately 400 kilometers; 4,800 medium-range rockets with a range of 40-180 kilometers; 65,000 short-range rockets with a range of 20-40 kilometers; and up to 140,000 mortar guns.
Iran has supported both Hezbollah and Hamas, with Hamas facing challenges in regaining strength in the short term. While Iran may instigate continued attacks against Israel through Hezbollah, they are likely wary of Israel’s potential extensive response, further debilitating Hezbollah. The outcome would leave Iran with fewer cards to play, weakening its leverage in dealings with the U.S. and the broader international community.
Hezbollah must appease Iran while preserving its own strength, reluctant to suffer significant losses. While the time during Israel’s dismantling of Hamas should have been the prime moment for Hezbollah to act, they refrained from instigating a major skirmish with Israel and witnessed Hamas’ defeat. Terrorist organizations feign support for each other, leveraging alliances while exploiting one another, mirroring the strategic alliances among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
China is likely to fervently encourage Iran and Hezbollah to act against Israel, destabilizing the region further. China is indifferent to the decimation of Hezbollah or Hamas, seeking ongoing chaos in the Middle East to constrain the U.S. and Western powers. Backing anti-Israeli forces covertly, including summoning Hamas to Beijing, China fuels chaos within the Arab world for its strategic interests.
Following Israel’s “Operation Grim Beeper,” the risk of war has significantly escalated, rendering the Middle East situation once more unpredictable.
(Translated and Rewritten by u/me)