Following the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party and the Beidaihe Conference, rumors about Xi Jinping’s health deteriorating have been circulating online. Despite Xi Jinping making high-profile appearances and frequently receiving foreign guests afterwards, discussions about his potential successor remain a hot topic. Wu Guoguang, a former advisor to Zhao Ziyang and current senior researcher at the China Economic and Institutional Research Center at Stanford University, pointed out the possibility of Xi Jinping intending to establish a lifelong rule, leading to concerns about a return to hereditary rule within the highest echelons of the Chinese Communist Party.
Wu Guoguang, who previously worked in the office of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party on political system reform, emphasized that since assuming the role of the paramount leader of the CCP in 2012, Xi Jinping has steadily consolidated his leadership through a series of political, economic reforms, and anti-corruption campaigns. His power has reached unprecedented levels, surpassing even Mao Zedong. Xi Jinping is not only the President of the country but also holds numerous other titles within the Party, elevating him to an unparalleled status of authority.
According to Wu Guoguang’s analysis, the prospect of Xi Jinping establishing a lifelong rule is evident, but the issue of selecting a successor remains a challenge, potentially leading to a return to hereditary rule within the top echelons of the CCP. Reflecting on East Asian experiences, Wu Guoguang highlighted the lack of alternatives to power succession under authoritarian regimes aside from military coups or military dictatorships, pointing to examples such as North Korea’s multi-generational leadership under the Kim dynasty.
Wu Guoguang further suggested that Xi Jinping has dismantled previous methods within the CCP aimed at resolving succession issues, rendering the traditional method of selecting successors across generations obsolete. Xi Jinping’s reluctance to designate a clear successor suggests a potential shift towards an indirect, hereditary system akin to the transitions seen in Taiwan and Singapore. He emphasized that for Xi Jinping, maintaining power through a successor might be the only viable option in the absence of other alternatives.
The question of Xi Jinping’s successor has sparked ongoing power struggles within the CCP, with figures such as Sun Zhengcai, Hu Chunhua, and Chen Min’er facing marginalization or ousting. Speculation regarding the political ascent of Xi Jinping’s wife, Peng Liyuan, to the Politburo before the 20th Central Committee’s Third Plenary Session generated buzz online, though many experts consider such claims unreliable, with no concrete signs of Peng Liyuan’s advancement.
The notion of Xi Jinping potentially grooming his daughter, Xi Mingze, as his successor akin to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un planning to pass the reins to his offspring has also been floated. However, Xi Mingze’s alleged strained relationship with Xi and lack of experience in official circles make her an unlikely candidate for succession. Drawing from historical precedents, the article discusses the possibility of influential female figures like Peng Liyuan wielding power post-Xi Jinping, potentially following a pattern of maternal regents in Chinese history.
The post-Xi Jinping era may witness a power vacuum, with uncertainties surrounding succession amid internal power struggles and escalating challenges faced by the CCP domestically and internationally. The current turmoil within the Chinese political landscape suggests a turbulent future for the Party, with increasing complexities potentially leading to internal upheaval upon Xi Jinping’s eventual departure, effectively taking down the CCP’s grip on power.
Wu Guoguang’s cautionary remarks underscore the shifting dynamics both domestically and internationally that pose formidable challenges to Xi Jinping’s sustained authority, including economic hardships, social unrest, and mounting international pressures. The changing environment may profoundly impact the longevity of Xi Jinping’s rule in the face of looming uncertainties and potential crises on the horizon.