Lebanon’s Hezbollah party accused Israel of launching two consecutive days of explosions involving pagers and walkie-talkies on September 17th and 18th, resulting in the death of over thirty people and injuring nearly five thousand. Israel has not yet directly responded to these accusations, and the United States has stated it is unaware of the situation.
Experts believe that such explosions are undoubtedly the work of intelligence units. In the world of intelligence, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is known for its cunning tactics, and this explosion incident may also cause concerns for the CCP, as enemies could potentially use similar methods to attack the South China Sea.
According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded across various locations in Lebanon on the 17th, resulting in at least 12 deaths and nearly three thousand injuries. On the 18th, another explosion occurred involving walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members, causing at least 20 deaths and nearly five hundred injuries.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, condemned these two events, stating that the bombings violated international human rights law and called for an independent and transparent investigation.
Hezbollah accused Israel of launching these attacks and vowed to retaliate against Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced that they conducted strikes on several Hezbollah “infrastructure sites” in southern Lebanon on the 18th. While Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, declined to comment on the explosions, he noted that Israel is entering a “new era of warfare.”
Reports from Reuters citing Western security sources revealed that Israel’s Unit 8200 was involved in planning these operations for over a year, including technical testing and the installation of explosive materials.
As of the time of reporting, the Israeli military has continued to refrain from commenting, and the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office has not responded to requests for comments from international media.
Taiwan’s Director of Defense Strategy and Resource Institute, Su Ziyun, mentioned that having the ability to infiltrate in the Middle East requires using supply chain modifications to obtain the entire Hezbollah communication list, enabling the execution of such precise bombing missions, which certainly aligns with the work of an intelligence unit.
Hezbollah and their main sponsor, Iran, suspect that their pager devices may have been stolen and tampered with by Israeli intelligence agencies.
Su Ziyun explained that the modification of Japanese walkie-talkies into explosives on the 18th also requires technical capabilities to avoid detection. The crucial aspect is the penetration of information or artificial intelligence to obtain communication lists. This allows for the activation of the explosive circuitry through coded calls to pagers or walkie-talkies.
“These two bombing incidents can be seen as a classic example of intelligence operations,” remarked Su Ziyun.
Former Dean of the Political Warfare College at Taiwan’s National Defense University, General Yu Zongji, mentioned that over a decade ago, he attended U.S. government department meetings where pagers and mobile phones were not allowed inside, as they had been exploited for detonations and attacks.
Yu Zongji noted that based on analysis from the Middle Eastern intelligence community, only Israel’s Mossad has the capability for such precise strikes.
Considering that Taiwan is flooded with Chinese-made electronic products, these devices could potentially be used as remotely controlled bombs during wartime or even peacetime, posing a risk of comprehensive paralysis for Taiwan.
Yu Zongji stated that Taiwan’s government has been enhancing cyber information security for years. They collaborate with the U.S. and many democratic countries on cybersecurity exercises annually.
According to reports, Taiwan’s Digital Development Department was officially established on August 27, 2022, with a primary mission of constructing nationwide digital resilience to transform Taiwan into a “smart nation.” The department focuses on information, cybersecurity, telecommunications, communication, and network domains.
Su Ziyun, who has served at Taiwan’s Defense Strategic Resource Institute for many years, mentioned that Taiwan began prohibiting the use of Chinese-made information and communication products in critical facilities at least five years ago.
Regarding the extensive global penetration of Chinese 3C electronic products, Su Ziyun suggested that after this incident, countries would become more proactive in removing components from red supply chains.
The European Commission issued a warning in June of last year, specifically naming Chinese telecom giants Huawei and ZTE as security risks to the EU, announcing the cessation of reliance on services from these companies.
In November 2022, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission announced restrictions on importing or selling products from Chinese companies due to national security risks. The mentioned companies include Hikvision, Huawei, ZTE, Dahua, and Hytera.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on September 9th prohibiting the operation of new DJI drones in the U.S., pending Senate approval, to prevent the use of DJI products in U.S. communication infrastructure.
Yu Zongji further discussed that adversaries may not necessarily detonate explosives directly but could initiate distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks to overload systems, potentially causing fires or explosions.
He highlighted the successful use of the “Stuxnet” program by Israel and the U.S. over a decade ago to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, delaying its nuclear weapons program for more than ten years.
Yu Zongji emphasized that the CCP would likely enhance scrutiny of imported foreign electronic products in response to the Hezbollah incidents. Their measures to prevent electronic network attacks are stricter than those in Western countries, evident through initiatives like the Great Firewall and the Golden Shield Project.
Su Ziyun added that in the intelligence realm, the CCP excels at deception, and this incident may prompt worries about potential attacks on the South China Sea using similar methods.
He stated, “The CCP started fortifying itself twenty years ago to prevent information infiltration, promoting the use of domestically developed operating systems instead of Windows in government agencies. They began releasing products designed entirely in-house after learning from Taiwan and the West. However, Beijing faces a dilemma as it cannot domestically produce core advanced chips. The CCP must choose whether to sever ties with the free world entirely and risk becoming a technological Iron Curtain.”
The challenging decision ahead for the CCP might lead to a more stringent control regime, including mandating the use of domestically produced components in communication products. However, the core advanced chips cannot be independently produced by China, potentially resulting in a technological barrier akin to the Cold War period of the Soviet Union.