In recent years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has seen a series of controversial policies, including internet IDs, housing pension funds, and delayed retirement, sparking widespread social backlash. The latest announcement of the delayed retirement policy has experts analyzing potential political conflicts and labeling it as the beginning of an era of policy failures, thrusting the CCP into a period of uncertainty.
On September 13, the CCP National People’s Congress announced the decision to gradually raise the statutory retirement age over a 15-year period starting from January 1, 2025. This includes delaying the retirement age for male and female workers, with the retirement ages of 60, 55, and 50 being postponed to 63, 58, and 55 respectively. Additionally, starting in 2030, the minimum contribution years for basic pension payments will increase from 15 to 20 years.
Authorities have cited various reasons for delaying the retirement age, such as increased life expectancy, an aging population, and diverse job opportunities. However, critics question the CCP’s motives, attributing the aging population issue to the enforced long-standing one-child policy and now burdening innocent citizens. Many believe the primary reason for the delayed retirement policy is due to economic collapse and the government’s financial hardships shifting burdens onto the people.
Political commentator Chen Pokong wrote on September 16 that the recently announced delayed retirement policy essentially translates to citizens working an additional 3 years, delaying pension payments by 3 years, and requiring an extra 5 years of contributions. This equates to each Chinese citizen paying an average of 150,000 RMB, enriching the debt-ridden government at both the central and local levels.
In an article from 2013, “China Youth Daily” published an article titled “Delayed Retirement May Breach Promise to a Generation,” highlighting concerns about the impact of delaying retirement. However, as the issue resurfaced with recent legislative discussions, these older articles were removed from the internet, presumed to be censored.
The commentary indicated that the delayed retirement benefits officials and experts, as it extends their political power and influence beyond the typical retirement age, offering a political lifeline in their later years.
Chen Pokong suggested that the deliberate delays in pension payments and the severe economic impacts reflect a broader trend of the government exploiting crises for financial gain. Such actions underscore a pattern of diverting funds from the public to the government, creating significant tension within society.
The delayed retirement policy represents a significant breach of trust towards the Chinese people, with implications of mockery and provocation. While revolt or revolution may not be immediate responses, resentment, ridicule, and dark humor are prevalent. The delayed retirement system undoubtedly exposes flaws in China’s social security system and represents one among many failed projects in the Xi Jinping era, marking the CCP’s descent into policy failure.
Political analyst Huang Yu expressed on September 16 via Voice of America that following the 20th party Congress, the CCP’s hasty adoption of the delayed retirement policy represents a potential flashpoint for a labor movement and possible nationwide protests. The policy highlights the deep-seated divisions within the Chinese leadership and the risks associated with antagonizing the working class without implementing comprehensive labor and welfare reforms.
The article underscored that the delayed retirement policy directly impacts the labor sector and carries significant social and political implications. This fundamental policy change creates a more substantial societal and political impact compared to the government’s economic redistribution measures and punitive actions, potentially destabilizing China’s labor system and social structure.
Huang Yu cautioned that without accompanying labor and welfare reforms, the delayed retirement policy could escalate into a political conflict labeled as a “national breach of contract,” leading to the collapse of China’s labor system and social structure, possibly resulting in prolonged national failure.
Analysis predicts that further postponement of retirement could spell disaster for marginalized individuals unable to benefit from welfare support, potentially leading to personal and family tragedies amidst the breakdown of the social structure in post-90s era.
In recent years following the end of the pandemic, a surge in retaliatory social violence cases has occurred in China, primarily involving middle-aged men over 50 years old losing hope and resorting to extreme measures.
In conclusion, the hardships faced by Chinese workers highlight the inevitable failure of the delayed retirement reform, potentially triggering a revolution in the future. Beijing’s decision-makers are steering towards a perilous path, awakening a dormant societal upheaval using exploitative policies and practices.