With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, it should be the peak season for mooncake sales, but this year the market is unusually quiet. Businesses are offering discounts and promotions, but consumers’ purchasing power is lacking. A responsible person in the hotel catering industry mentioned that there is a clear downgrade in market consumption. Customers who used to buy 10 boxes of mooncakes in one go are now bargaining for a discount even when buying just 2 boxes. Mooncake outsourcing factories that used to be shipping goods even in the early morning hours are now implementing a “3 days work, 1 day off” schedule.
This year, the Mid-Autumn Festival falls on September 17, making it the peak season for mooncake sales.
According to a report from Blue Whale News on September 9, a bakery chain employee named Yue Yue told reporters that this year’s mooncake sales have decreased by around 30% compared to last year, with very few group purchases and poor sales of individual pieces.
A salesperson at a Cantonese restaurant in Beijing’s Chaoyang district informed reporters that this year’s mooncake sales have decreased by at least 20% compared to previous years, leading to a significant decrease in the overall inventory at the restaurant.
Reports from the media indicate that currently, there are numerous gift boxes priced below 100 yuan in supermarkets and restaurants, prominently displayed on shelves. The same salesperson at the Cantonese restaurant mentioned that the prices of mooncake gift boxes have been reduced this year, from 128 yuan and 168 yuan previously to 78 yuan and 108 yuan now. “If they are still expensive, no one will buy them. The selling price is basically at cost, with no discounts for group purchases.”
According to a report from the Yangcheng Evening News’ client “Yangcheng Pai” on September 4, this year’s mooncake sales are particularly poor. With over a week left before the Mid-Autumn holiday, many hotel staff members have reported unsatisfactory mooncake sales. Furthermore, factories have mentioned that this year’s shipment volume is only half of last year’s.
Xiao Lin, a salesperson at a hotel in Zhongshan, stated that her sales target for mooncakes this year is 700 boxes. She added that the hotel’s total sales target is 40,000 boxes, and currently, all hotel staff members are selling mooncakes. If they fail to meet the target, they might have to buy the mooncakes themselves.
On September 2, Li Xia, in charge of food and beverage services at a five-star hotel in Shenzhen, told Time Weekly, “During the peak sales season in previous years, we could sell 100-200 boxes of mooncakes during a weekend morning tea session. This year, selling 10 boxes of mooncakes on weekends is already considered good. Customers who used to buy 10 boxes of mooncakes in one go now only buy two boxes and still negotiate prices.”
Li Xia has noticed a weakening market consumption trend since the second quarter. According to her observations, the number of customers holding events like graduation banquets and full-moon dinners at hotels has significantly decreased this year. Even for banquet arrangements, customers who used to choose dishes worth 3000 yuan per table are now lowering their budget to around 1600 yuan per table. The average spending per person for morning tea has dropped from 300 yuan in previous years to about 160 yuan this year.
The stagnant market has directly impacted outsourcing factories.
“In previous years, the half-month before the festival was the peak sales period, business was booming, and factories were busy shipping goods even in the early hours,” expressed Ling Feng, a sales manager at a mooncake outsourcing factory in Shenzhen, to the media. “But this year, the number of orders has significantly decreased, and the workload has also decreased.”
Ling Feng’s factory handles mooncake outsourcing for several five-star hotels in Shenzhen, and this year’s market situation has left him feeling lost.
“Due to the lack of orders, some manufacturers are now working 3 days and taking 1 day off, allowing them to ship goods every other day,” admitted Zhang Zhaoyu, a sales manager at a large mooncake outsourcing factory in Guangzhou. He pointed out that the mooncake market is not as good as in previous years.
With 8 years of experience, Zhang’s clients include dozens of restaurants in Guangdong Province. In previous years, restaurants would start placing orders gradually two months before the Mid-Autumn Festival, but this year everyone is cautious. It wasn’t until one month before the festival that they began placing orders. “The overall order volume has dropped by 20%. Normally, at this time of the year, the restaurants would have sold one batch of products and be adding more orders, but this year, selling out the existing stock is already challenging enough.”
According to the China Bakery Products and Confectionery Industry Association, the total mooncake production in 2023 was 320,000 tons, with sales amounting to 22 billion yuan. This year, it is estimated that the mooncake production and sales for the Mid-Autumn Festival will be around 300,000 tons and 20 billion yuan. The prices of mainstream mooncake gift boxes have become more affordable, with the most concentrated price range being between 70 and 220 yuan. This is a significant drop compared to the range of 80 to 280 yuan last year.
A report titled “2024 Chinese Mooncake Industry Market Trends” points out that due to insufficient consumer demand, fierce market competition is expected to intensify. It is projected that this year, the overall mooncake production and sales volume will remain relatively stable or experience a slight decrease. The trend of a large quantity but slight profit margin market will continue.
Hu Hua Cheng, the chairman of Zhihe Island and an internet financial writer, analyzed three reasons why mooncakes are not selling well: the mooncake industry has been exposed to scandals, consumer downgrades, and companies are cutting costs to improve efficiency, resulting in some companies no longer giving mooncakes to employees, which naturally leads to a decline in sales.
The hashtag “Why are mooncakes not selling well” has become a hot topic on the mainland Chinese internet recently.
Wang Weichen, a journalist from the Sports Weekly, and a verified Weibo user, posted: “1. Mooncakes are high in calories and sweetness; young people don’t like them. 2. Enterprises have poor performance and cannot afford to give out mooncakes to employees. 3. Businesses have fewer deals to do, so they are not giving out gifts anymore… With the downturn in the economy, the demand for welfare benefits and gifts has decreased, so it’s inevitable that mooncakes are not selling well.”
Grassflower’s Secrets, a constellation fortune-teller and verified Weibo user, said: “When people buy mooncakes, they are buying the gift box; the actual cake inside is not worth much, primarily meeting the need to give gifts. With the economic downturn, enterprises and organizations no longer have budgets for employee benefits, so they are not giving mooncakes to friends and family unless necessary (giving red envelopes is more practical), and the demand is naturally decreasing.”
According to the Securities Times, various signs indicate that in the first half of 2024, the Chinese baking industry has faced severe challenges in development due to factors such as economic downturn, high costs, and weak consumer spending.